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Phoenix Phantasy Phacts

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by Charlie Turner

I'm Charlie Turner co-host of the syndicated, mostly NASCAR radio show On Pit Row. Thanks for stopping by OnPitRow.com and the Bench Racing with Steve and Charlie blog. Oh yeah, Steve is an idiot.

April 11, 2008 4:38 pm CDT 4 Comments

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Phoenix International Raceway has hosted two of the sixteen Car of Tomorrow races in 2007 and a couple of test sessions for the Sprint Cup new car. It is one of the tracks where the teams have some data, real race experience and an off-season to work on things.

Carl Edwards leads Kasey Kahne at TexasHendrick Motorsports pretty much owned the CoT races in 2007. You could say they owned the whole ‘07 season but for sure the CoT tracks. Jack Roush famously admitted last year to being “caught out” when it came to testing and developing the new machine. Roush’s Carl Edward’s results so far in 2008 seem to indicate that Jack has caught up with and perhaps surpassed the Hendricks . Carl has three wins in the all-new car series and could have had a fourth. That’s close to domination of the seven races so far but the good result have come on the super speedways, not the two short tracks. Phoenix, at a mile in length, isn’t a short track but it’s no cookie-cutter or two-miler either.

Trying to predict performance by analyzing statistics from past races is dicey enough anytime. This track, this time around is especially tough.

Once again, Jimmy Johnson has the top Loop Data stats based on the last six races at Phoenix. Johnson is at the top of the Loop in Ave Mid Race Position, Ave Position and Finish. He’s run 1758 laps - 93.9% in the Top Fifteen and has the best Driver Rating at 115.9

By contrast, Jeff Burton leads only the Passes Under Green category, has spent only 63.8 % of his PIR Loop laps in the Top Fifteen and has a driver rating of 86.1 - 14th best.

What have you done for me lately?

What’s the point? It’s this - Phoenix Loop Data are for the last six races there. Loop Data for the first seven races of 2008 are “what have you done lately” numbers. Jeff Burton tops the season-to-date Loop stuff. At least he has accumulated the highest total points in the Loop Box Score categories for 2008. Burton leads only one other stat and that is an Ave Finish of 7.1, which makes sense since he leads the Sprint Cup Series in points.

Johnson is rated a respectable sixth for 2008, but doesn’t lead in any single category. Does a combination of a first at the track and sixth for the season make you lean more to JJ this week?

Carl Edwards has won three races this season but is rated only seventh best in the 2008 Loop-to-date. Even with three wins in seven events, Carl’s Ave Finish is 12.7 for the year, indicating inconsistency. He has the best Ave Position for 2008 and tops the Number of Fastest Laps Run - 312 for 15.7%. He’s rated seventh best overall at PIR with no category bests.

Kyle Busch has the top Driver Rating, Ave Mid-Race Position, Quality Passes and Laps Led for 2008. Phoenix hasn’t been as kind though, with a twelfth overall and no top numbers.

Jeff Burton at Texas 2008Kurt Busch has been good at PIR as has Jeff Gordon. Both are in the top four with Driver Ratings of 103.7 and 107.0. But 2008 has been a totally different story as Gordon is 14th and Busch 15th overall. Too many DNF’s for both ex-champs.

Two drivers put together a perfecta of PIR and 2008 Loop Stats that challenge Jimmy Johnson’s combo.

Tony Stewart ranks fifth in PIR DR at 103.5, he is at the top of a couple of the passing categories and actually has the fourth highest Ave Points Gained per race. Match that up with fifth best 2008 Loop stats. Smoke’s Driver Rating for ‘08 is second to Kyle Busch at 104.8 and he’s led 289 laps.

But the driver I like this week is Kevin Harvick who combines the second best Driver Rating, Laps in Top Fifteen and Laps Led in the PIR Loop era with the runner-up Loop Box Score rating for the year-to-date.

Johnson, Stewart and Harvick are all win-less for 2008 and that can’t last much longer. All three have won at Phoenix though- Harvick twice. It looks to me like this week’s winner comes from these three and I’ll take Happy.

Watch JJ Yeley for a C-teamer. That Hall of Fame Racing Camry is going to come around and home cooking might put a talented driver over the top.

Photo credit: Icon Sports Media, Inc.

Filed under: Car of Tomorrow, Carl Edwards, Dale Earnhardt Jr., Hendrick Motorsports, J J Yeley, Jeff Burton, Jeff Gordon, Jimmy Johnson, Joe Gibbs Racing, Kevin Harvick, Roush Racing, Sprint Cup Series, Tony Stewart 

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Comments

4 Responses to “Phoenix Phantasy Phacts”

  1. User Avatar Marc on April 11th, 2008 5:18 pm

    Phat Phuture PHorecasting.

    However, I’m going with PHlipper to win #Phour

    (anyone else feel and hear that buzzing, seems almost like sum kinda mind-ray or sumtin)

  2. User Avatar Charlie Turner on April 11th, 2008 7:41 pm

    HAhahahahahahahahah. Thanks for the “phat” comment Marc. I think I was buzzing myself when I wrote this thing.

    BTW I have a REAL scoop. Phil (actual spelling checked) Parsons will be philling the roll of “ARCA Insider’” pretty much every week on the new “INSIDE ARCA” show.

    And you probably thought that phoolish headline was unintended. Phooey.

  3. User Avatar Marc on April 11th, 2008 8:54 pm

    Well, I truly did think the Phoolish headline was unintended.

    Phool me once shame on you , Phool me twice shame on me.

    Geesh… this is like the worst virus in the world. Make it STOP!

    On the subject of INSIDE ARCA, do you have any idea how many people tuned into the radio broadcast and the streamed version?

    There’s a method to my madness If the numbers would support it what are the odds of using the live chat thing-a-ma-bob used during the Daytona 500?

    If would give listeners with web access, and us poor lost souls stuck in mid-Pacific direct access to harass…er, I mean question your guests. (and call Steve an idiot)

  4. User Avatar Charlie Turner on April 12th, 2008 8:27 am

    Phantastic idea Marc. OK, I’ll stop.

    I don’t know the numbers yet, but I can find out. And using Coveritlive is an intersting idea. Let me think that through. I can see a couple of snags, but they may not be insurmountable. In the mean time, you can email us - we are monitoring that during the show - at insidearca@onpitrow.com.

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