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Discounting the dominant past

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by Charlie Turner

I'm Charlie Turner co-host of the syndicated, mostly NASCAR radio show On Pit Row. Thanks for stopping by OnPitRow.com and the Bench Racing with Steve and Charlie blog. Oh yeah, Steve is an idiot.

March 28, 2008 9:18 am CDT 8 Comments

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Jeff Gordon at AtlantaHow much should a couple of five race streaks - of less than stellar results - in the most recent events affect your picks in the races that follow? Jimmy Johnson and Jeff Gordon, 2007’s most dominant drivers in Cup competition, sit 13th and 14th respectively in the point standings for 2008. That’s not terrible for anyone else, but for JJ and Jeffy, it’s almost shocking.

Defending Cup champ Johnson’s team is really struggling. Other than a solid second place finish at California, where he led a bunch of laps on day one before the rains came, this season has been very un-Johnson-like and un-Chad Knauss-like as well, for the two-time Cup winning crew chief. The #48 team recently tested for seven straight days - an indication of both their determination to turn the season around before it gets away and an acknowledgment of real problems with the team.

Jeff Gordon trails Johnson by seven points but the #24 team has looked better getting to this point than their garage-mates in the #48. Gordon finished third to Johnson’s second at Cali but Jeff has been in position to win other races this year. The problem has been finishing races at all. Two DNF’s have hurt. The big wreck at Las Vegas hurt alot.

If you look at any statistical measure in evaluating drivers for the upcoming Goody’s Cool Orange 500 this week at Martinsville Speedway, Jeff Gordon and Jimmy Johnson jump out once again as the stats-on favorite picks to win. Those stats are based upon results from past years though. In the case on NASCAR’s Loop Data, which is mostly what we use in this column, the numbers are compiled for the last six races, covering the three years that the scoring loops have been measured. But how much do you discount that old data based on the performance of the first five races this year? Is momentum, or the lack of it, for real?

Jeff Gordon leads all active drivers with six poles and seven wins at the VA paper clip. He has 24 top tens, 18 top fives and series highs of 342 Fastest Laps Run and Drivers Rating of 124.5. He has an incredible Ave. Finish of 2.3 in the last six races.

Gordon’s teammate is pretty close. Four wins - including the last three races there - eight top fives and eleven top tens wrapped around a Driver Rating of 120.8 and 296 Fastest Laps Run. Johnson’s Ave. Finish in the Loop era is 2.8.

So, who else can win at Martinsville?

There is one competitor who can challenge the stats of the Hendricks duo and Tony Stewart is the guy. Stewart has two Martinsville wins, six top fives and ten top tens. His third best Driver Rating of 119.3 is close to Johnson’s and Tony has a series high Ave. Running Position of 5.9. Stewart has run 89.8% of his laps during the Loop era (2700 total) in the top fifteen. The #20 hasn’t won a race yet in 2008 but Stewart is in 7th place in the points with two top fives and one DNF.

Tony Stewart’s Joe Gibbs Racing teammates have the next highest Martinsville Driver Ratings with Kyle Busch edging Denny Hamlin 98.0 to 96.5. Hamlin has had two top five and four top ten finishes in five Martinsville appearances. Sprint Cup Series leader Busch has three top fives and four top tens out of six starts. Hamlin has a better Ave. Finish and more Fastest Laps Run - 11.2 and 98 - than Kyle.

But Kyle is having the better 2008. Not only is he leading the points, he has Toyota’s only win and has been a factor at every Cup race and, just about, every NASCAR sanctioned event period. You gotta like Kyle at least a little for Martinsville.

Dale Earnhardt Jr has a Driver Rating of 95.8 and seven career top fives at Martinsville. His series leading 166 Quality Passes may or may not mean much, but the fact that he is driving Hendrick Motorsports’ most successful 2008 car certainly does. Junior sits fifth in Series points after five races but he is winless at the Virginia short track.

The Driver Rating drop-off is pretty sharp after Earnhardt. Ryan Newman, Kevin Harvick and Kurt Busch’ DR’s range from 89.1 to 88.5. Of the three, only Busch has won here, but Kurt’s Ave Finish of 20.3 indicates some DNF’s go with his two top fives and four top tens. I want to pick Harvick but the Ave Finish of 19.3 stops me. He does have five top tens though.

Newman might be the guy to pick from the “B” pool. Five top fives, two poles go with two DNF’s to make an Ave Finish of 14.0. Ryan is due, unless you believe that Daytona was a fluke. I don’t.

The other driver with buzz right now is Bristol winner, Mr. Solid, Jeff Burton. He’s fourth in points and has nine top fives and thirteen top tens in twenty seven Martinsville starts. His Loop Driver Rating of 81.0 doesn’t inspire, but he’s the only guy out there that can win two in a row.

Want a sleeper? Take Jamie McMurray. Driver Rating of 83.5 is tenth best with respectable Ave Finish of 16.8. He’s motivated and has good equipment. The problem is he’s thirty sixth in owner’s points and he has to qualify on speed, so he won’t have much practice time in race set-up. On second thought, take Jeremy Mayfield.

Picture credit: Icon Sports Media, Inc.

Filed under: Dale Earnhardt Jr., Denny Hamlin, Jeff Burton, Jeff Gordon, Jeremy Mayfield, Jimmy Johnson, Joe Gibbs Racing, Kevin Harvick, NASCAR Fantasy Gaming, Ryan Newman, Sprint Cup Series, The Waltrips, Tony Stewart 

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Comments

8 Responses to “Discounting the dominant past”

  1. User Avatar Luke on March 28th, 2008 3:44 pm

    Betting against the Top Trio at Hendrick while navigating MartinsGordonville is lunacy of the pure moonbat variety.

    Junior is good there, and well all know how good the other two are.

    This is the telltale sign of things within the Hendrick Camp. Especially with the #48. The #24 has just had bad luck, but the #48 has been off. They plain stunk at Vegas.

    For a dark horse, I’m thinking Reutimann.

  2. mike on March 28th, 2008 4:44 pm

    I like Kasey Kahne as a dark horse.

  3. User Avatar Marc on March 28th, 2008 8:47 pm

    Whose the sleep this week?

    How about Kyle Petty? He’ll be gettin’ plenty of sleep this weekend.

  4. Tim Zaegel on March 28th, 2008 10:15 pm

    In the Fantasy Preview that I posted on Thursday (well before even the first Cup practice), I took Hamlin to win and Gordon to finish 2nd. We all know how dominant the Hendrick cars have been at Martinsville, but Hamlin has 2 top-five’s and 4 top-ten’s in only five races there (as you pointed out) and the Gibbs camp has been running much better than HMS this season (albeit we’re only five races in).

    I also took McMurray as my sleeper pick. Where I think you’re wrong is in regards to Ryan Newman. His Daytona victory WAS a fluke of sorts. Will he be a threat to make the Chase field later in the year? I’m quite sure that he will be, and he’ll probably get another win or two along the way. However, I don’t think anyone in the Penske garage is in a position to compete for wins at this point.

  5. User Avatar Charlie Turner on March 28th, 2008 11:16 pm

    Now that Carpentier has made the race, what’s the over-under on the lap when he hits something hard enough to leave the building? I put the line at 250 - but I’m betting the under.

    Those are all good dark horse picks I think. Steve would say Vickers, I think.

    Anybody think Almirola can do it again? That qualifying run was pretty impressive, and starting up front here helps.

    I’m with Luke. This is a Hendrick weekend. Which probably means someone like Kurt Busch will win it.

  6. Ryan Newman Fan on March 28th, 2008 11:21 pm

    Took McMurray as my sleeper as well.

    Took Hamlin and Gordon as well.

    I really hate saying things like this, but JJ and Jeffy will be back up in the top 12 in no time, probably the top 5.

    And, of course I think Newman will do great. Although he is starting 13th which I believe is where he had made his way up to at Bristol when he got collected in the crash. Hope it’s not a bad omen.

  7. User Avatar Steve Wronkowicz on March 29th, 2008 9:44 am

    Chuckles– why are you all over Carpentier’s crap?

    Look for a dark horse in an incredibly unlikely place. Look at the 19 car to run real well. Sadler will start the race, but look for Dennis Setzer to take over at the first caution and take the McDonald’s ride to the front. He may not be able to win the thing, but a top 10 is do-able.

  8. User Avatar Charlie Turner on March 30th, 2008 10:04 am

    Wow. Nice call on Setzer Steve-O. I don’t know how the Cup race will turn, but with Dennis winning the Truck race - after your call-out above - you almost look smart.

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