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Chase History: Homestead-Miami Speedway

by Chris Leone, Special To NASCAR commentary and driver pictures, 2011 NASCAR schedule, video, Bench Racing With Steve and Charlie

I do weekly Fantasy Pick'Em columns here at OPR, as well as the occasional opinion and analysis piece. I also provide the IZOD IndyCar Series coverage. For more on that, head to my site, OpenWheelAmerica.com. My Twitter handle is @christopherlion.

November 18, 2011 11:38 am CST No Comments

I hate to borrow from another sport’s marketing campaign to explain this weekend’s Chase for the Sprint Cup finale at Homestead-Miami Speedway, but I feel like the NHL’s playoff slogan says it all: History will be made.

We have a two-way battle for the championship between Carl Edwards and Tony Stewart, and if either of them win the race, they win the title. It’s as simple as that. Both drivers are on top of their game, unlike last year, when Jimmie Johnson was able to psyche out Denny Hamlin relatively easily. Stewart’s been engaging Edwards pretty heavily in the media, but Edwards doesn’t seem too worried about it.

Perhaps it’s because neither of Stewart’s two Homestead wins came on this track layout. While Smoke dominated the early years of its Cup history, winning the inaugural race in 1999 and again in 2000, track ownership altered its shape and banking in 2003. Since then, Roush Fenway Racing has basically owned the track, winning six of the last seven races there. The last two of those wins, in 2008 and 2010, went to Edwards.

Or perhaps it’s because Edwards is just better at Homestead. Stewart’s got a good track record, with two wins and six top-10s in 12 starts and an average finish of 12.4. But Edwards has two wins and six top-10s of his own in only seven races run. His average finish is 5.7. That’s off the wall. That’s the kind of average finish that will give you 1:2 odds in Vegas.

And yet, Stewart’s won a title under the Chase format before. Edwards hasn’t. Stewart has the advantage of having been in Edwards’ position in 2005 and knowing what throws a leader’s mindset off. He’s got all the confidence in the world - he just needs to execute.

Ignore the change in points formatting before this season. This championship could, theoretically, end in a tie (which would go to Stewart on the strength of more wins). It could be separated by only one or two points, which, under the old system, would still be a narrower margin of victory than Kurt Busch’s eight point win in 2004. Either way, it’s a very slim chance that Sunday becomes a gimme for either driver.

So get your popcorn ready, folks. We’re about to witness history.

Filed under: Carl Edwards, Chase for the Cup, Homestead-Miami Speedway, Tony Stewart

Tagged with: Carl Edwards, Chase for the Cup, Homestead-Miami Speedway, Tony Stewart

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Chase History: Texas Motor Speedway

by Chris Leone, Special To NASCAR commentary and driver pictures, 2011 NASCAR schedule, video, Bench Racing With Steve and Charlie

November 6, 2011 12:15 pm CST No Comments

Texas Motor Speedway promoter extraordinaire Eddie Gossage loves a good head-to-head battle, especially in the Chase for the Sprint Cup. That’s what he hopes for between Carl Edwards and Tony Stewart, the top two remaining championship contenders, in today’s Texas race.

Ideally, Gossage would love to see the points lead change hands today. It’ll make the race one of the most interesting ones in the Chase, but mostly it’ll help him sell even more tickets to this race in the future. And, if it happens again, it’ll firmly entrench Texas as perhaps the most pivotal race in the Chase.

Remember what happened last season. Denny Hamlin took the win in this race after leading 31 laps, inheriting the points lead in a 47-point swing from Jimmie Johnson, who finished ninth. That’s roughly an 11-point swing under this year’s point system, which would be good enough to give Stewart the lead if he did the same thing.

Then again, perhaps that wouldn’t be such a good omen. The only driver to take the title after winning at Texas was Johnson in 2007 since this race was established in 2005. Edwards took the checkers in 2008, only to finish second in points; Hamlin did the same thing last year. Edwards was too far back in the Chase to catch Johnson, though he would have won the championship under a non-Chase format. Meanwhile, Hamlin blew it the next week at Phoenix and gave the point lead right back.

Whoever wins today, though, Gossage probably hopes they’re leaving with the points lead. Stewart could do it easily; Kevin Harvick, Brad Keselowski, and even spring Texas race winner Matt Kenseth could do it with a bit of luck. Today should be a Texas-sized shootout, and Gossage is loving every second of it.

Filed under: Carl Edwards, Chase for the Cup, Denny Hamlin, Texas Motor Speedway, Tony Stewart, jimmie johnson

Tagged with: Carl Edwards, Chase for the Cup, Denny Hamlin, jimmie johnson, Texas Motor Speedway, Tony Stewart

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Chase History: Kansas Speedway

by Chris Leone, Special To NASCAR commentary and driver pictures, 2011 NASCAR schedule, video, Bench Racing With Steve and Charlie

October 8, 2011 12:00 pm CDT No Comments

#14 Tony Stewart turn 2 Michigan International Speedway heisler sum 11

Can Tony Stewart reclaim the Sprint Cup points lead by taking his third career Kansas win? (Photo: Beth Heisler)

2011 marks the first season that Kansas Speedway has ever hosted two races at NASCAR’s highest level, but its fall race has been a part of the Chase for the Sprint Cup since the format’s inception. All but twice, its winner has been a Chase driver; in one of the exceptions, the winner, Tony Stewart, was the top non-Chase driver on the season.

Stewart, in fact, is one of only three drivers to score two wins at the track, tied for the all-time lead. His victories came in 2006, the season where he just missed the Chase, and 2009, his fourth win in his first season driving for his own team. With eight top-10s in his 11 starts, he has an average finish of 11.9 that’s good for fifth among active drivers.

But the two other drivers to win multiple races have done a bit better. He isn’t in this year’s Chase, but Greg Biffle is the defending race winner (as well as the 2007 winner, under controversial circumstances) and will start from the pole on Sunday. In five of his 10 Kansas starts, he’s led 37 laps or more; in seven of 10, he’s come home with at least a top five finish.

The gold standard, however, is Jeff Gordon, who has nine top-10s in 11 Kansas starts and lays down a consistent run every time he shows up. Gordon won the first two Kansas races, in 2001 and 2002, the first coming on the way to his fourth career championship. In each of his past five starts, he’s finished fifth or better, giving Stewart a run for his money in the 2009 race. Another strong Kansas run could be just what he needs to pull back into the Chase hunt after the first three races have left him ninth in points.

Filed under: Chase for the Cup, Greg Biffle, Jeff Gordon, Kansas Speedway, Tony Stewart

Tagged with: Chase for the Cup, Greg Biffle, Jeff Gordon, Kansas Speedway, Tony Stewart

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Chase History: Dover International Speedway

by Chris Leone, Special To NASCAR commentary and driver pictures, 2011 NASCAR schedule, video, Bench Racing With Steve and Charlie

September 28, 2011 1:05 pm CDT No Comments

Chad Knaus Jimmie Johnson Chandra and daughter on pit road Dover 10 bure

One of the toughest tracks on the Sprint Cup schedule, the concrete Dover International Speedway - “The Monster Mile” - hosts the third round of this year’s Chase for the Sprint Cup, the AAA 400, this weekend. Right now, Tony Stewart is the points leader, holding a seven-marker advantage over second-place Kevin Harvick after scoring wins in both Chase races so far.

But when it comes to Dover, Stewart hasn’t won since sweeping the track in 2000. He came close in the spring 2009 race, only to be edged for the lead by Jimmie Johnson with three laps to go. His average finish at Dover in the seven Chase races is a so-so 15.3, but the Chase isn’t about solid points finishes, it’s about winning.

If recent history is to be trusted, in fact, this should be the track at which Johnson breaks out. Johnson, like Stewart, can boast a Dover sweep in the distant past (2002), but unlike Stewart, has tasted victory more recently. He’s won the past two fall Dover races (both from pole) and three of the past five at the track overall. He used last year’s victory to set him up to take the points lead from Denny Hamlin the next weekend at Kansas. The two would continue to swap the lead throughout the Chase, in one of the best battles in the format’s history.

Johnson’s career average finish of 9.6 is second best of all active Cup drivers, with only Carl Edwards‘ 7.6 a superior mark. Edwards only has one career win at Dover, however, which came during the 2007 season. The win, inherited when dominant teammate Matt Kenseth blew an engine, put Edwards within 28 points of leader Jeff Gordon; however, a late-race crash at Kansas put a major dent in his title hopes, and he wouldn’t win again that year.

Filed under: Carl Edwards, Chase for the Cup, Dover International Speedway, Tony Stewart, jimmie johnson

Tagged with: AAA 400, Carl Edwards, Chase for the Cup, Denny Hamlin, Dover International Speedway, Jeff Gordon, jimmie johnson, Kevin Harvick, Tony Stewart

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Chase History: Chicagoland Speedway

by Chris Leone, Special To NASCAR commentary and driver pictures, 2011 NASCAR schedule, video, Bench Racing With Steve and Charlie

September 14, 2011 2:04 pm CDT No Comments

How’s it going, OPR readers? Long time no talk. Turns out life continued to get in my way of writing anything decent for the majority of this Sprint Cup season, but for the final 10 races of the year I’m back with something fresh and different - a little column on the history of the Chase for the Sprint Cup at each of this year’s 10 tracks.

But, of course, NASCAR can’t make anything easy for me, as the opening track on the schedule, the Chicagoland Speedway, has never actually hosted a Chase race. No matter. This week, we’ll start instead with how drivers have propelled themselves into the Chase with good runs at Chicagoland.

2007: After a busted fuel pump at Bristol and a late race caution at Phoenix robbed him of two sure-fire wins, Tony Stewart entered the second half of the Cup season solidly in the Chase, but without any wins to boost his fortunes. But a dominant performance at Chicago spurred on a run of three wins in four races, including his first career Brickyard 400 win. These three victories propelled Stewart to second in points and the third seed of the Chase that season.

2008: In his first year with Joe Gibbs Racing, Kyle Busch established himself as a tour de force on the Sprint Cup circuit, taking eight victories. Perhaps the most dominant came at Chicago, as he started from the pole, led 165 laps, and even beat leader and two-time defending champion Jimmie Johnson at his own game, passing him on the final restart to take his seventh win of the year.

2009: Mark Martin had struggled with consistency all season, often going from inside the Chase to out of it and back again over the span of just two races. He had won in two of his previous eight starts entering the Chicago race weekend, but only had one other top-10 in that span, and was coming off two finishes of 35th or worse in his previous three races. After winning the LifeLock.com 400, however, he began a run of five finishes of seventh or better in the final seven races before the Chase, cementing his eligibility. His four wins also gave him the points lead.

Filed under: Chase for the Cup, Chicagoland Speedway

Tagged with: Chase for the Cup, Chicagoland Speedway, jimmie johnson, Joe Gibbs Racing, Kyle Busch, Mark Martin, Tony Stewart

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Fantasy Pick’Em: 2011 Pocono 500

by Chris Leone, Special To NASCAR commentary and driver pictures, 2011 NASCAR schedule, video, Bench Racing With Steve and Charlie

June 9, 2011 6:12 pm CDT No Comments

Oh, god, Pocono. 500 miles of it. This weekend’s Sprint Cup race is going to feel like an even longer event than the Coca-Cola 600, and that’s saying something. A big, fast track, plus the scorching summer heat, should make Pocono one of the greatest tests of endurance on this year’s schedule, as it usually is.

More importantly, though, Pocono signals the start of the second half of the Sprint Cup “regular season,” where the top drivers will jostle for Chase positions. A solid performance is more important now than ever, as currently struggling teams look to establish momentum for the Race to the Chase and sneak in by virtue of race wins or even the lower part of the top 10 in points.

So, with that in mind, who looks good this weekend?

Denny Hamlin: Look, I may be feeling some of the heat stroke from Pocono already, but I’m not an idiot. Not only is Hamlin the sport’s best Pocono driver, he also fits that label of “struggling” (well, somewhat; they’ve begun to pick it up recently) and will probably need some race wins to guarantee himself a Chase spot. With all that in mind, there’s no better place for him to do it than Pocono, and probably no better driver to pick for the same reasons.

Tony Stewart: Smoke has always been pretty good at Pocono, but four finishes of third or better in his past five starts at the track may very well cement him as its elite driver as of late. One of those was a win in this same race, from the pole, two years ago. And with Stewart only up 11 points on teammate Ryan Newman for the final Chase spot, he, too, could use some good runs to give him breathing room.

Brian Vickers: Here’s an interesting pick. Vickers will either give you a fantastic finish (twice a runner-up at Pocono, four top five finishes in 12 starts) or a bum-out (four of his past six finishes were 21st or worse, although all four saw him stay on the lead lap). Adding to the drama is the fact that it’s been more than a year since he’s competed at the track, owing to last year’s blood clots keeping him out of the car. Regardless, while Vickers is a high-risk pick, he leaves open the potential for high reward as well.

Filed under: Brian Vickers, Denny Hamlin, NASCAR Fantasy Gaming, Pocono Raceway, Tony Stewart

Tagged with: Brian Vickers, Denny Hamlin, Fantasy Pick'Em, Pocono 500, Pocono Raceway, Tony Stewart

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