Matt Kenseth came into the sport under the mentorship of Mark Martin and the two seem more and more similar every year. Kenseth is now a 10-year veteran and one of the most-respected drivers in the garage. He’s had disagreements with drivers in his younger days but those rough edges have long been polished. Kenseth is still competing and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see his son, Ross Kenseth, join the Roush stable when he turns 18 to bring us the latest father-son pairing in NASCAR.

What Kenseth lacks in flash he makes up for in tenacity. Before Kevin Harvick took the label Kenseth was often NASCAR’s best closer. How many people remember Kenseth finished 5th in the final points standings last year? Exactly. We haven’t seen the last of the fast Crown Royal #17 in victory lane this year.

Fantasy Pick’Em: 2010 Pepsi Max 400

by Chris Leone, Special To NASCAR commentary and driver pictures, 2011 NASCAR schedule, video, Bench Racing With Steve and Charlie

I do weekly Fantasy Pick'Em columns here at OPR, as well as the occasional opinion and analysis piece. I also provide the IZOD IndyCar Series coverage. For more on that, head to my site, OpenWheelAmerica.com. My Twitter handle is @christopherlion.

October 7, 2010 10:20 am CDT No Comments

Jimmie Johnson Chad Knause victory lane Dover

The Chase for the Sprint Cup continues this weekend at the Auto Club Speedway, as Sprint Cup Series teams prepare for the Pepsi Max 400.

It’s the fourth race of the Chase, and by this the point the championship contenders are beginning to separate themselves from the pretenders.

Most of the Chasers are still within 100 points of new leader Jimmie Johnson, but most will surely find it hard to top the four-time defending champion. Clint Bowyer, after losing his appeal on a car that failed to meet specifications after New Hampshire, has conceded the title fight, but the other 10 are still looking to do the impossible.

California thus marks a pivotal race in the Chase, as Cup drivers now look to stay close to Johnson now that he may have taken the points lead for good. Johnson aside, who looks good at California?

Kyle Busch isn’t the best active driver at California, with an average finish of 10.8. But eight top-10s in 12 starts and a victory show that he can get the job done. After battles with David Reutimann sabotaged his Kansas finish by knocking the car out of whack, he’ll have no choice but to do just that. That extra motivation is why he’s my pick this week.

As for a dark horse, look to Richard Petty Motorsports’ soon-to-be-departing lead driver Kasey Kahne. In 13 California starts, Kahne’s got a win and seven top-10s at the track. It’s only been bad luck at the track as of late that keeps him from having a better record.

Three more – again, staying away from Johnson, if only for a week:

Matt Kenseth began to inject a little life into his Chase hopes with a top-10 finish at Kansas. Even though he would be 12th in the Chase if not for the Bowyer penalty, Kenseth should be a threat at California – he’s finished in the top 10 there in 12 of 17 attempts. It’s a Roush Fenway thing – the team employs (or has employed) five of the 10 best active drivers at the track.

Kurt Busch has seen a little less success at California than his brother, with only eight top-10s in 16 starts at the track. But he, too, has visited victory lane at the track, albeit back in 2003. Still, his past six California starts have resulted in five finishes of 13th or better.

As for a left-field pick, consider Jamie McMurray and his 16.4 average finish at the track. McMurray was my dark horse pick at the track earlier this season. He struggled at the track with Roush, ironically, but has been considerably better at the track while driving for Chip Ganassi. In his first go-round with the team, between 2003 and 2005, his average finish was 7.2; earlier this year, he qualified on pole.

Let’s admit something, though, before we wrap up: Johnson is the ultimate pick here, as he is at about half the Chase tracks. From his 5.5 average finish and five wins, including four in his past six starts, you would think that his home track would also be his best. It’s actually not – it’s only his third best. Talk about a testament to how good this guy is.

Photo credit: Glenn Bure, OnPitRow.com

Fantasy Pick’Em: 2010 Heluva Good! Sour Cream Dips 400

by Chris Leone, Special To NASCAR commentary and driver pictures, 2011 NASCAR schedule, video, Bench Racing With Steve and Charlie

I do weekly Fantasy Pick'Em columns here at OPR, as well as the occasional opinion and analysis piece. I also provide the IZOD IndyCar Series coverage. For more on that, head to my site, OpenWheelAmerica.com. My Twitter handle is @christopherlion.

June 10, 2010 12:55 pm CDT No Comments

Carl Edwards Pocono Raceway

For the third weekend in a row, the Cup cars face a grueling endurance event. First came the Coca-Cola 600, the longest event of the year. Last week gave us 500 long miles at Pocono. Now, drivers head to one of the fastest tracks on the circuit, where pole speeds frequently flirt with 190 miles per hour.

So who looks good for this weekend’s tilt?

My personal pick is going to be Jeff Gordon. Last week I took Denny Hamlin as my lead driver, and he rewarded me with a victory, so I’m looking for Gordon to continue my streak. He has two wins and 22 top-10s in 34 career Michigan starts, and is one of only two active drivers with an average Michigan start in the single digits. Last year he finished second in both Michigan races.

My dark horse for the weekend will be Bill Elliott. The Wood Brothers only run a limited schedule nowadays with factory Ford backing, but you can bet that they’ll be looking to impress at the home track of the American manufacturers. Elliott’s Michigan record isn’t too shabby, either – seven wins and 29 top-10s in 59 starts. Both are tops among active drivers.

Who else looks good at Michigan?

I hesitate offering up a Carl Edwards pick, because he’s burned me every time I’ve suggested him all year. He’s done very little to suggest that he’s still the same driver who won nine races in 2008. But Edwards has two wins and 10 top-10s in only 11 Michigan starts. His 6.1 average finish at the track is by far the best of any active driver, nearly four spots better than second-best Matt Kenseth.

Of course, this also makes Kenseth a viable Michigan pick, his last win coming at the track in 2006. Michigan is owner Jack Roush’s home track, and he always does his best to take a win at the track each year. Last year was the first since 2001 in which a Roush car didn’t take the checkers in a Michigan Cup event, and you can bet that the Cat in the Hat will do everything he can to change that.

Finally, it’s time for Junior Nation to get on its feet, because Dale Jr. is my final pick of the weekend. Sure, his one win at the track (and only win in the No. 88) came on fuel mileage, but he has led at least one lap in eight of the last nine Michigan events. In that span, he has all four of his career top fives at the track, and has completed 1734 of a possible 1735 laps. Clearly he can take a car to the front and keep it in the hunt.

Fantasy Pick’Em: 2010 Samsung Mobile 500

by Chris Leone, Special To NASCAR commentary and driver pictures, 2011 NASCAR schedule, video, Bench Racing With Steve and Charlie

I do weekly Fantasy Pick'Em columns here at OPR, as well as the occasional opinion and analysis piece. I also provide the IZOD IndyCar Series coverage. For more on that, head to my site, OpenWheelAmerica.com. My Twitter handle is @christopherlion.

April 15, 2010 3:13 pm CDT No Comments

This weekend’s Samsung Mobile 500 at Texas Motor Speedway will be the eighth race of this year’s Sprint Cup Series season. Last year, Jeff Gordon scored his lone win of the season in this race, leading a race-high 105 laps, including the last 28.

Before anything else, though, I’d like to comment on what a whirlwind of a week this has been as far as the silly season goes. Kasey Kahne to Hendrick in 2012, in a Jamie McMurray-esque situation? Two of the lower-tier teams changing drivers? Kelly Bires and John Wes Townley out of rides? Silly season keeps happening earlier and earlier every year, and I think NASCAR needs to look into implementing some restrictions on signings like Kahne’s. I understand that the drivers and teams are independent contractors, but how would Colts fans feel if Peyton Manning signed with the Titans for the 2012 season before even completing this year or the next?

Without further ado, and before I start ranting uncontrollably about the Kahne signing, let’s just go to the fantasy picks and call it a day.

My headlining pick for the weekend is Tony Stewart. Of active drivers, Smoke is the fourth-best at Texas, with one win and 10 top-10s in 16 starts. The win came in the fall of 2006, when he led 278 of the race’s 339 laps. Smoke also has to be buoyed by teammate Ryan Newman’s win last weekend at Phoenix, a great step towards asserting that Stewart-Haas Racing won’t fall victim to a sophomore slump in 2010.

As for a dark horse, I’m going to pick Kahne. Yes, he has been very mediocre at Texas, with only one win and two top-10s in 11 starts, but something tells me that his Richard Petty Motorsports team is going to go all out this weekend and in the next few weeks to try and prove that they can run up front, not only for Kahne’s potential replacements, but maybe even to keep him in the seat for 2011.

Okay, we’ve got three more picks to go. Is it fair enough for me to invoke Texas hold ‘em and call this the fantasy “flop”? (Heaven knows a lot of my picks tend to do so on raceday.)

The top active driver statistically at Texas is Matt Kenseth, with an average finish of 9.3. No other driver has a single-digit average finish at Texas, not even the great Jimmie Johnson. Kenseth has not won at Texas since 2002, but has led at least one lap in eight of the last ten Texas races. Over that span, his worst finish is 18th, with six top fives (including three runner-up finishes) and lead-lap finishes in all ten starts.

Kurt Busch is somewhat of a risky pick, but he did win the last time the Cup cars went to Texas. Granted, he only has one Texas DNF, but he hasn’t been as consistently up front at the track throughout his career as guys like Kenseth and Johnson. In fact, his only other top five finish came in his Texas debut, in the spring of 2001, when he finished fourth.

Finally, Jeff Burton has only recently asserted himself as a Texas contender, but he’s almost always been towards the front since joining Richard Childress Racing. He only led one lap in the one Texas race he won, but since 2006 he’s finished in the top 10 six out of eight times.

Fantasy Pick’Em: 2010 Auto Club 500

by Chris Leone, Special To NASCAR commentary and driver pictures, 2011 NASCAR schedule, video, Bench Racing With Steve and Charlie

I do weekly Fantasy Pick'Em columns here at OPR, as well as the occasional opinion and analysis piece. I also provide the IZOD IndyCar Series coverage. For more on that, head to my site, OpenWheelAmerica.com. My Twitter handle is @christopherlion.

February 18, 2010 12:27 am CST No Comments

One race down, 35 to go, as the Sprint Cup Series heads to Auto Club Speedway for the Auto Club 500. Jamie McMurray will look to repeat Matt Kenseth’s 2009 feat of sweeping the first two races of the season, at a track where he has an average finish of 16.4. California is McMurray’s fifth best track of those on the current schedule.

My pick for Daytona, Tony Stewart, finished 22nd, leaving me with 97 points on the weekend. My dark horse, John Andretti, slapped the wall and ended up 38th. As for my other three suggestions, only Dale Earnhardt Jr. had a strong run, finishing second; Mark Martin faltered to finish 12th and Marcos Ambrose blew a motor after 79 laps to wind up 41st. Not a great start to my year, but that’s Daytona.

If you’re looking for a sure bet at California, don’t just go by who won the 500; since Fontana assumed the second race of the season in 2005, only Kenseth has done the double. Jimmie Johnson finished second at the track in 2006, but in none of the other cases has the Daytona winner finished better than double digits. Daytona winners’ average finish at California over the past five years is an even 12, mostly brought up by those two.

The winners at California usually come from the middle of the pack at Daytona. Ignoring Kenseth’s win last year, the average finish of California winners at Daytona between 2005 and 2008 was 21.5.

Regardless of all that, my pick for California is Matt Kenseth. This one seems like an easy call. Roush Fenway Racing Fords have won the past five spring races at California, as well as 10 of 19 races at the track overall. Kenseth won this race in 2006, 2007, and last year. His average finish of 9.2 is third best among active drivers. A victory could propel Kenseth into the points lead.

As for a dark horse, I’m picking David Ragan. We can call him a dark horse, right? He still hasn’t won a Sprint Cup race, and he had a generally horrible season in 2009. But his seventh place in the fall California race was his second best finish of 2009. He’s also never failed to finish below 17th at the track, which is either a really good omen for Sunday or a hint that he’s overdue for a bad finish.

Per tradition, three other suggestions:

Jimmie Johnson’s an easy pick. You don’t just stumble into a 5.8 average finish in the Sprint Cup Series at any given track – you’ve gotta be good. Johnson’s obviously good, as his four Sprint Cups attest to. He’s even better at California, with no finishes worse than 16th, no DNFs, zero finishes off of the lead lap, and at least 31 laps led in the past six races at his home track. I only pick against him because none of his four wins at the track came in February.

Kyle Busch is a solid, yet interesting, choice if you’re looking to spice things up. He’s not as easy of a pick as the Roush or Hendrick drivers, but he did have a streak of eight California top-10s before last fall’s 24th-place finish, and not even Jimmie Johnson (six and counting) can say that.

I’m going to give Jamie McMurray the benefit of the doubt and my final pick. The past four years have been pretty abysmal for the Daytona 500 winner, especially at California, where a sixth place finish in his second race with Roush was the lone high point; since then, he’s never been better than 16th at the track. But McMurray was never worse than 15th when he drove for Chip Ganassi, his current owner, with an average finish of 7.2 in five starts between 2003 and 2005.

Can McMurray, Ganassi Sustain Daytona Success?

by Chris Leone, Special To NASCAR commentary and driver pictures, 2011 NASCAR schedule, video, Bench Racing With Steve and Charlie

I do weekly Fantasy Pick'Em columns here at OPR, as well as the occasional opinion and analysis piece. I also provide the IZOD IndyCar Series coverage. For more on that, head to my site, OpenWheelAmerica.com. My Twitter handle is @christopherlion.

February 15, 2010 1:48 pm CST No Comments

Almost nobody expected Jamie McMurray to win the 2010 Daytona 500. It was his first race with Earnhardt Ganassi Racing after four lackluster years as the fifth driver at Roush Fenway Racing, and nobody knew whether or not the combination would work out.

Chip Ganassi was the first owner to give McMurray a shot in Cup, promoting him in 2002 when Sterling Marlin was injured, and McMurray rewarded him by winning in his second career start. But it took McMurray almost five years to win again.

He’s never made a Chase (despite coming close for Ganassi twice in the mid-2000s), and plenty of folks thought his career was dead in the water after the four years of middling performance at Roush.

The combination of Dale Earnhardt Inc. and Chip Ganassi Racing before last season was also a huge question mark, although Juan Montoya’s consistent performance throughout the regular season and early part of last year’s Chase answered his side of the equation. Martin Truex Jr., on the other hand, struggled desperately to perform, and left the team for Michael Waltrip Racing at the end of the year.

This opened the door for Ganassi to bring back McMurray, and he rewarded the racing magnate’s judgment by winning the biggest race of the year.

Now, the biggest question is what kind of team McMurray’s will be for the next 35 races of the season.

Glory at Daytona can be used to propel a driver into the championship hunt. Ernie Irvan and Davey Allison used their 1991 and 1992 victories, respectively, to assert themselves as legitimate championship contenders. Irvan in 1991, Allison in 1992, and Sterling Marlin in 1995 (the year of his second consecutive 500 win) had their best career finishes in points coming off of Daytona victory.

Dale Earnhardt Jr. had a great season in 2004 after winning the Great American Race for the first time. His six wins that year were a career high, and although he slipped two positions in the final standings from his career-best third in 2003, he was a legitimate title contender the whole year.

Jimmie Johnson’s 2006 victory in the race led to his first career Cup title, despite regular crew chief Chad Knaus being suspended for the race. Jeff Gordon and Dale Jarrett each won the first race of the season the year after winning championships, in 1999 and 2000 respectively.

But plenty of drivers have seen their triumph at Daytona lead to a long dry spell.

Let’s start with last year. Sure, Matt Kenseth also won the next week’s race at California, but he missed the Chase for the first time in his career as well. Neither Ryan Newman (2008) nor Kevin Harvick (2007) have won points-paying Sprint Cup races since their respective Daytona 500 triumphs.

Michael Waltrip wasn’t able to turn either of his Daytona 500 triumphs, in 2001 and 2003, into season-long success, falling to 24th and 15th in points those two years, respectively. His win in fall 2003 at Talladega remains his final Cup win to date.

The worst season by a Daytona 500 winner in recent memory, however, belongs to Ward Burton, who finished 25th in points after his triumph in 2002. Burton started the season by leading at least one lap in the first five races, but 15 finishes outside the top 10 in the first 19 races of the year killed any hopes he had of championship contention. By the end of the next season, he was no longer employed at Bill Davis Racing.

The big question, then, is this: Will Jamie McMurray have a Sterling Marlin type of season after winning the Daytona 500, or a Ward Burton year?

We know that Chip Ganassi’s equipment is stellar in every racing series he enters. His IZOD IndyCar Series teams have won the past two championships, his Rolex Sports Car Series team is always contending for the title, and Montoya elevated the Sprint Cup team to a new level last year. The equipment and resources are certainly available.

McMurray’s also got a fire inside after the past four years at Roush. He needs to prove that he’s still “got it,” or perhaps that he ever “had it” at all; three of his four wins in Sprint Cup came on restrictor plate tracks, where anything can happen. This currently puts him in a category with Waltrip, as both were marketable mid-pack drivers who collected all of their mid-career victories in plate races.

McMurray needs to return to the form that nearly propelled him into the first Chase in 2004, and the Ganassi equipment has to stay as strong as it was last year. But if one or both of those things doesn’t happen, we could see yet another fluke Daytona 500 victory.