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Fantasy Pick’Em: 2010 Auto Club 500

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by Chris Leone, Special To NASCAR commentary,NASCAR video,NASCAR pictures, Bench Racing With Steve and Charlie

If OnPitRow.com was a NASCAR team, I’d be the development driver of the bunch. In the same way that young hotshots like Joey Logano have been driving since they were in grade school, I’ve been following and writing about all forms of motorsports since I was barely old enough to talk.

February 18, 2010 12:27 am CST No Comments

One race down, 35 to go, as the Sprint Cup Series heads to Auto Club Speedway for the Auto Club 500. Jamie McMurray will look to repeat Matt Kenseth’s 2009 feat of sweeping the first two races of the season, at a track where he has an average finish of 16.4. California is McMurray’s fifth best track of those on the current schedule.

My pick for Daytona, Tony Stewart, finished 22nd, leaving me with 97 points on the weekend. My dark horse, John Andretti, slapped the wall and ended up 38th. As for my other three suggestions, only Dale Earnhardt Jr. had a strong run, finishing second; Mark Martin faltered to finish 12th and Marcos Ambrose blew a motor after 79 laps to wind up 41st. Not a great start to my year, but that’s Daytona.

If you’re looking for a sure bet at California, don’t just go by who won the 500; since Fontana assumed the second race of the season in 2005, only Kenseth has done the double. Jimmie Johnson finished second at the track in 2006, but in none of the other cases has the Daytona winner finished better than double digits. Daytona winners’ average finish at California over the past five years is an even 12, mostly brought up by those two.

The winners at California usually come from the middle of the pack at Daytona. Ignoring Kenseth’s win last year, the average finish of California winners at Daytona between 2005 and 2008 was 21.5.

Regardless of all that, my pick for California is Matt Kenseth. This one seems like an easy call. Roush Fenway Racing Fords have won the past five spring races at California, as well as 10 of 19 races at the track overall. Kenseth won this race in 2006, 2007, and last year. His average finish of 9.2 is third best among active drivers. A victory could propel Kenseth into the points lead.

As for a dark horse, I’m picking David Ragan. We can call him a dark horse, right? He still hasn’t won a Sprint Cup race, and he had a generally horrible season in 2009. But his seventh place in the fall California race was his second best finish of 2009. He’s also never failed to finish below 17th at the track, which is either a really good omen for Sunday or a hint that he’s overdue for a bad finish.

Per tradition, three other suggestions:

Jimmie Johnson’s an easy pick. You don’t just stumble into a 5.8 average finish in the Sprint Cup Series at any given track – you’ve gotta be good. Johnson’s obviously good, as his four Sprint Cups attest to. He’s even better at California, with no finishes worse than 16th, no DNFs, zero finishes off of the lead lap, and at least 31 laps led in the past six races at his home track. I only pick against him because none of his four wins at the track came in February.

Kyle Busch is a solid, yet interesting, choice if you’re looking to spice things up. He’s not as easy of a pick as the Roush or Hendrick drivers, but he did have a streak of eight California top-10s before last fall’s 24th-place finish, and not even Jimmie Johnson (six and counting) can say that.

I’m going to give Jamie McMurray the benefit of the doubt and my final pick. The past four years have been pretty abysmal for the Daytona 500 winner, especially at California, where a sixth place finish in his second race with Roush was the lone high point; since then, he’s never been better than 16th at the track. But McMurray was never worse than 15th when he drove for Chip Ganassi, his current owner, with an average finish of 7.2 in five starts between 2003 and 2005.

Filed under: Auto Club Speedway, David Ragan, Jamie McMurray, Kyle Busch, Matt Kenseth, One and Done NASCAR Fantasy Racing, jimmie johnson 

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Can McMurray, Ganassi Sustain Daytona Success?

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by Chris Leone, Special To NASCAR commentary,NASCAR video,NASCAR pictures, Bench Racing With Steve and Charlie

If OnPitRow.com was a NASCAR team, I’d be the development driver of the bunch. In the same way that young hotshots like Joey Logano have been driving since they were in grade school, I’ve been following and writing about all forms of motorsports since I was barely old enough to talk.

February 15, 2010 1:48 pm CST No Comments

Almost nobody expected Jamie McMurray to win the 2010 Daytona 500. It was his first race with Earnhardt Ganassi Racing after four lackluster years as the fifth driver at Roush Fenway Racing, and nobody knew whether or not the combination would work out.

Chip Ganassi was the first owner to give McMurray a shot in Cup, promoting him in 2002 when Sterling Marlin was injured, and McMurray rewarded him by winning in his second career start. But it took McMurray almost five years to win again.

He’s never made a Chase (despite coming close for Ganassi twice in the mid-2000s), and plenty of folks thought his career was dead in the water after the four years of middling performance at Roush.

The combination of Dale Earnhardt Inc. and Chip Ganassi Racing before last season was also a huge question mark, although Juan Montoya’s consistent performance throughout the regular season and early part of last year’s Chase answered his side of the equation. Martin Truex Jr., on the other hand, struggled desperately to perform, and left the team for Michael Waltrip Racing at the end of the year.

This opened the door for Ganassi to bring back McMurray, and he rewarded the racing magnate’s judgment by winning the biggest race of the year.

Now, the biggest question is what kind of team McMurray’s will be for the next 35 races of the season.

Glory at Daytona can be used to propel a driver into the championship hunt. Ernie Irvan and Davey Allison used their 1991 and 1992 victories, respectively, to assert themselves as legitimate championship contenders. Irvan in 1991, Allison in 1992, and Sterling Marlin in 1995 (the year of his second consecutive 500 win) had their best career finishes in points coming off of Daytona victory.

Dale Earnhardt Jr. had a great season in 2004 after winning the Great American Race for the first time. His six wins that year were a career high, and although he slipped two positions in the final standings from his career-best third in 2003, he was a legitimate title contender the whole year.

Jimmie Johnson’s 2006 victory in the race led to his first career Cup title, despite regular crew chief Chad Knaus being suspended for the race. Jeff Gordon and Dale Jarrett each won the first race of the season the year after winning championships, in 1999 and 2000 respectively.

But plenty of drivers have seen their triumph at Daytona lead to a long dry spell.

Let’s start with last year. Sure, Matt Kenseth also won the next week’s race at California, but he missed the Chase for the first time in his career as well. Neither Ryan Newman (2008) nor Kevin Harvick (2007) have won points-paying Sprint Cup races since their respective Daytona 500 triumphs.

Michael Waltrip wasn’t able to turn either of his Daytona 500 triumphs, in 2001 and 2003, into season-long success, falling to 24th and 15th in points those two years, respectively. His win in fall 2003 at Talladega remains his final Cup win to date.

The worst season by a Daytona 500 winner in recent memory, however, belongs to Ward Burton, who finished 25th in points after his triumph in 2002. Burton started the season by leading at least one lap in the first five races, but 15 finishes outside the top 10 in the first 19 races of the year killed any hopes he had of championship contention. By the end of the next season, he was no longer employed at Bill Davis Racing.

The big question, then, is this: Will Jamie McMurray have a Sterling Marlin type of season after winning the Daytona 500, or a Ward Burton year?

We know that Chip Ganassi’s equipment is stellar in every racing series he enters. His IZOD IndyCar Series teams have won the past two championships, his Rolex Sports Car Series team is always contending for the title, and Montoya elevated the Sprint Cup team to a new level last year. The equipment and resources are certainly available.

McMurray’s also got a fire inside after the past four years at Roush. He needs to prove that he’s still “got it,” or perhaps that he ever “had it” at all; three of his four wins in Sprint Cup came on restrictor plate tracks, where anything can happen. This currently puts him in a category with Waltrip, as both were marketable mid-pack drivers who collected all of their mid-career victories in plate races.

McMurray needs to return to the form that nearly propelled him into the first Chase in 2004, and the Ganassi equipment has to stay as strong as it was last year. But if one or both of those things doesn’t happen, we could see yet another fluke Daytona 500 victory.

Filed under: Daytona 500, Earnhardt Ganassi Racing, Jamie McMurray 

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Sponsor Switches in NASCAR Just Part of the Business

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by Chris Leone, Special To NASCAR commentary,NASCAR video,NASCAR pictures, Bench Racing With Steve and Charlie

If OnPitRow.com was a NASCAR team, I’d be the development driver of the bunch. In the same way that young hotshots like Joey Logano have been driving since they were in grade school, I’ve been following and writing about all forms of motorsports since I was barely old enough to talk.

December 24, 2009 4:41 pm CST No Comments

I saw the weirdest thing a few days ago.

I was in the middle of one of my thrice-daily Jayski.com runs, checking the paint scheme gallery for some of the cars that will run next year, when I saw a No. 99 Roush Fenway Racing Ford for Carl Edwards that had Kellogg’s and Cheez-It decals plastered all over it.

Now, don’t get me wrong, I had been aware of this sponsorship switch for at least a month. I knew it was coming. But something about seeing a tangible representation of the scheme just felt weird.

For one, it maintained the bright yellow that Kellogg’s had been using with Hendrick Motorsports since 2004, as well as the red and blue that had been accent colors. I knew they were Kellogg’s colors, but something about them felt more like Hendrick colors. Keep in mind that before Dale Earnhardt Jr. joined the team, all four cars ran that shade of yellow in their numbers. The blue also matched up best with CarQuest Auto Parts, a remaining Hendrick sponsor that had partnered with Kellogg’s on the No. 5 car for the past few years.

It felt kind of like a Hendrick Motorsports Ford, and kind of like somebody’s Photoshop project for a NASCAR computer gaming website. It felt like one of those ideas that sounded good at the time, but didn’t quite work out.

That’s when I remembered that it was a real car, due to hit the track in 2010, and that the 16-year relationship between Hendrick and Kellogg’s was no more.

It’s just part of the business - sponsors go wherever they feel they can get the most bang for their buck. Two races with the young and fit Carl Edwards made more sense to company execs than 18 races with the older (but similarly fit, and better performing on-track) Mark Martin.

Sponsor loyalty cannot be relied upon in the business anymore. How else can one explain Valvoline returning to Roush in a primary sponsorship role with Matt Kenseth next year, nine years after leaving Mark Martin for an ill-fated experiment in team ownership?

For what other reason would Subway shift its loyalty from Greg Biffle to Tony Stewart to Carl Edwards over the past three years?

It happens with every team, both big and small. Richard Childress Racing snagged two defectors; Caterpillar ended a 10-year relationship with Bill Davis Racing after the 2008 season to back Jeff Burton, while Cheerios ended an eight-year pact with Petty Enterprises to sponsor Clint Bowyer. Budweiser spent seven years with DEI from 2001 to 2007 before putting their money on Kasey Kahne when Earnhardt Jr. left. DeWalt had been with Kenseth since the late 1990s before leaving this year, although the company has chalked that up to not having the marketing dollars.

Regardless, it’s rare to see a driver, team, and sponsor stick with one another for any significant length of time anymore. We just don’t see as many Richard Petty-STP, Robert Yates-Texaco, or Morgan-McClure Motorsports-Kodak combinations anymore.

Sure, there will always be a DuPont car for Jeff Gordon, a Lowe’s car for Jimmie Johnson, and a Menards car for Paul Menard. Miller Lite will continue to adorn the hood of a Penske car, Interstate Batteries and the Home Depot will stay with Joe Gibbs Racing, and Michael Waltrip will always be able to bank on NAPA sponsorship dollars. Red Bull owns its own team. Aside from that, it’s a free-for-all.

NASCAR has gotten considerably more expensive as of late, with most team owners fielding at least two to three cars. Everybody wants to have four. This facilitates an environment in which sponsors are, as of late, less willing to be patient or stick with a good thing in place. Instead, they’re always trying to take the next step up, looking for a way to align themselves with a better driver for less money, even if it means sponsoring fewer races.

It’s unfortunate that it’s the way of the business, but it’s the nature of the beast these days. So when you see Jeff Gordon rejoin the Coca-Cola Racing Family, Tony Stewart appear on Cheerios and Wheaties boxes, or Joey Logano someday pitching Budweiser, don’t say I didn’t warn you.

I mean, Mark Martin’s a GoDaddy driver now, after all. It can’t make any less sense than that.

Filed under: Carl Edwards, Hendrick Motorsports, Mark Martin, Matt Kenseth, Roush Racing 

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Brian Vickers Cuts Down The Shrub

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by Steve Wronkowicz

I am co-host of the syndicated radio show: ON PIT ROW. Charlie likes to call me an "idiot". I'm not an "idiot"; I just prefer not to let the facts get in the way of my opinions.

September 14, 2009 7:27 pm CDT 1 Comment

The Chase to the Sprint Cup field has been set.

Kyle Busch didn’t make it and his 2009 rival Brian Vickers did.  The race at Richmond was a microcosm of the 2009 season for Busch.  He ran well early in the season; seeing him win four races.  While four wins was enough to get veteran Mark Martin into The Chase, Busch struggled through the middle stretches of the season.

Busch ran well at Richmond; even better than Vickers, but when all was said and done the fifth place finish wasn’t a large enough margin of victory over Vickers to beat him for the final Chase spot.  Vickers needed only a seventh place finish to knock Matt Kenseth from the Chase and keep Busch at bay.

Busch has won races this year–four of them–and while he cannot win a championship in 2009 don’t count him out to win more races.  Typically drivers in the chase have won more often than those not in the chase.  If Kyle keeps his head into the final ten races of the season, he should have no problem racking up a few more victories.  Winning races hasn’t been a problem this season; it has been the poor finishes other than wins that sealed the fate for the m&m’s team.

This leads us to this week’s BUZZ ON PIT ROW:

What happened to the adage that winning races will take care of winning championships?

Vickers and the Red Bull Team were able to make the most of every opportunity to rack up points.  Sometimes getting extra points when needed after adversity struck.  That is what making the Chase is all about.  No matter how NASCAR adjusts the process of making the Chase, it is still a points battle.  Just ask the Shrub.

Let us know what you think and we could award you a Kevin Harvick bobblehead, if you are the “Shell–Fuel My Passion Call of the Day.“  Listen live to ON PIT ROW from 5-7pm ET every Tuesday.

photo credit: Icon Sports Media

Filed under: Chase for the Cup, Juan Pablo Montoya, Kyle Busch, NASCAR, NASCAR & the Media, On Pit Row The Fastest Two Hours on Radio 

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Kenseth Misses Chase For First Time

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by Chris Leone, Special To NASCAR commentary,NASCAR video,NASCAR pictures, Bench Racing With Steve and Charlie

If OnPitRow.com was a NASCAR team, I’d be the development driver of the bunch. In the same way that young hotshots like Joey Logano have been driving since they were in grade school, I’ve been following and writing about all forms of motorsports since I was barely old enough to talk.

September 14, 2009 11:11 am CDT 1 Comment

With this year’s disappointment, Matt Kenseth will miss the first Chase for the Sprint Cup of his career. Dating back to the format’s creation in 2004, Kenseth had always been a participant, one of only two drivers to make that claim (Jimmie Johnson was the other).

This year, however, Kenseth will be an also-ran, fighting with Kyle Busch for 13th place and missing the banquet at the end of the year.

Things started off so promising for Kenseth, the winner of the first two races of the season. After taking the Daytona 500 in rain-shortened fashion, people wondered whether or not the win was a fluke; Kenseth responded by winning the next race in Fontana. The Fox commentary booth declared that Kenseth was no fluke this year. It was the best of times for the DeWalt team.

Then, at Las Vegas, the wheels fell off – or, more accurately, the engine blew on the first lap. Kenseth finished last.

From there, he’s had a mediocre season. His last top 5 came at Dover, 13 races ago. He’s only had three top 10 finishes since then, and two of those were only 10th place finishes. When Kenseth told ABC that his team wasn’t running well enough to be a factor in the Chase if they had even made it, he really wasn’t kidding.

At Richmond, with his Chase spot on the line, Kenseth needed to have a strong run. He responded by qualifying 28th, accidentally pulling into Michael Waltrip’s pit stall instead of his own, and finishing 25th. Not the kind of run you’d hope to see from a driver trying to protect his playoff position.

Even worse, Busch and Brian Vickers – his greatest competition for 12th place and the final playoff spot – both posted fantastic finishes, winding up 5th and 7th, respectively. Vickers wound up edging Busch for 12th by eight points.

Combine that with an uncertain sponsorship situation for next year, with DeWalt leaving the sport and Crown Royal only covering half the races, and it’s been the worst of times for Kenseth as of late.

It only seems fair, though, that Kenseth would miss a Chase eventually, when it’s his normal practice of racking up top 10s instead of victories that caused the advent of the format in the first place. Consider 2003, the last season under the old points format, where Kenseth won one race – Las Vegas – and drove away to the title on the strength of 25 top 10s. Ryan Newman had eight wins that year and finished sixth overall.

From here, it’s obvious that Kenseth can go nowhere but up. Without the pressure of contending for a championship, the 17 team can take some risks over the next few months that championship contenders don’t have the luxury of taking. They can use these final ten races as a test session for next year, in hopes of getting back to the Chase for 2010. If they can win a few races, too, next year’s sponsorship situation might be a lot less murky.

When it comes down to the bottom line, however, everybody knows Kenseth’s talent. He can win races, and he can rebound. After this year’s disappointment, look for an improved Matt Kenseth in 2010.

Filed under: Chase for the Cup, Matt Kenseth 

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Matt Kenseth Loses Shot at NASCAR Immortality

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by Steve Wronkowicz

I am co-host of the syndicated radio show: ON PIT ROW. Charlie likes to call me an "idiot". I'm not an "idiot"; I just prefer not to let the facts get in the way of my opinions.

March 3, 2009 8:19 am CST 5 Comments

Matt Kenseth was the talk of Las Vegas for most of the week; as NASCAR took center stage in Sin City, until it was all gone in an instant.

Kenseth had the opportunity to do something that no other driver had ever done on the circuit; win the first three races in a season.  Not only had it never been done in NASCAR’s premier Sprint Cup Series, it had never been done it any of its top three traveling series.  The #17 team was set to give fans something to root for or against during the Shelby 427.

Engine problems took the suspense away early.  Before five laps had been run at the 1.5 mile high banked track Kenseth’s power plant went up in smoke.  The engine in Kenseth’s ride was not the only one to have problems over the weekend.  Kenseth’s team mate, David Ragan endured a similar failure during the race.

The engine problems were not limited to the Fords at Roush-Fenway Racing.  Mark Martin also had one blow in his Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet, resulting in a fortieth place finish.  Even eventual race winner, Kyle Busch, had to move from his number one starting position, to the back of the pack, because of an engine change before the start of the race.

And that all sends us toward this week’s BUZZ ON PIT ROW:

Are all the engine problems the past two races just bad parts or something else?

Let u know what you think and we may use your comments on this week’s radio show.  Listen live to ON PIT ROW Tuesdays from 5-7pm ET.

Photo credit: Icon Sports Media

Filed under: Kyle Busch, Las Vegas Motor Speedway, Mark Martin, Matt Kenseth, NASCAR 

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