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Fantasy Pick’Em: 2011 Coca-Cola 600

by Chris Leone, Special To NASCAR commentary and driver pictures, 2011 NASCAR schedule, video, Bench Racing With Steve and Charlie

I do weekly Fantasy Pick'Em columns here at OPR, as well as the occasional opinion and analysis piece. I also provide the IZOD IndyCar Series coverage. For more on that, head to my site, OpenWheelAmerica.com. My Twitter handle is @christopherlion.

May 26, 2011 11:25 am CDT No Comments

Ah, the old World 600. The longest race of the year, and NASCAR’s attempt to steal the spotlight from the Indianapolis 500 on the same day, has seen its share of interesting (i.e. first-time) winners in recent memory. Jeff Gordon took his first career victory in this race back in 1994. Bobby Labonte repeated the feat the very next year. Casey Mears did the same in 2007, while David Reutimann, with the aid of rain, stole a win in 2009 as well.

This is one of the reasons why the 600 is one of the best races in NASCAR - you never know what’s going to happen, or who’s going to win. For that reason - nevermind the first-time winners at Daytona and Darlington this year - don’t expect your typical, run of the mill winner come Sunday night. It’ll either be a first-timer, or somebody who’s had quite the drought.

Joey Logano: Logano’s been the picture of consistency at Charlotte for the past two years. Three top-10s in four starts, including a best finish of fifth, give him the best average finish of any active driver at the track. Logano’s had a rough season, sitting 27th in points, and hasn’t won since taking his maiden victory in a rain-shortened Loudon race in 2009, making him exactly the type of turnaround candidate I’m talking about.

Martin Truex Jr.: I know, Truex has a win in his career too, but it’s been a while. The No. 56 team showed the speed in qualifying for this race third last year, but dropped down the field to finish a disappointing 23rd, second to last on the lead lap. Don’t expect them to let it happen again - these boys are hungry and everyone knows it.

A.J. Allmendinger: So what gives with me doing this write-up about first-time winners, when my first two picks don’t fit that mold? To be honest, I think that A.J. Allmendinger has a shot at this thing. He’s been a consistent top-15 driver all season, and everybody in the garage feels like his first career win isn’t too far out of reach. Same goes for Marcos Ambrose, although Ambrose’s team has been slightly less consistent over the course of the year. Either way, though, it’d be nice to see two-time race winner Richard Petty back in the winner’s circle this weekend as an owner.

Filed under: A J Allmendinger, Joey Logano, Lowes Motor Speedway, Martin Truex Jr., NASCAR Fantasy Gaming

Tagged with: A.J. Allmendinger, Coca Cola 600, Fantasy Pick'Em, Joey Logano, Martin Truex Jr.

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Fantasy Pick’Em: 2011 FedEx 400 benefiting Autism Speaks

by Chris Leone, Special To NASCAR commentary and driver pictures, 2011 NASCAR schedule, video, Bench Racing With Steve and Charlie

May 13, 2011 10:46 am CDT No Comments

martin truex jr david reutimann qualifying new hampshire

Ah, Dover. The track known colloquially as the “Monster Mile” is always a fun time, and given how much fun we had last week at Darlington, it won’t be a shock if this weekend’s race, the FedEx 400 benefiting Autism Speaks, will be even more exciting.

Kevin Harvick and Kyle Busch are the new power feud in the sport, after last week’s pit road incident. Ryan Newman and Juan Pablo Montoya still hate each other, if it’s been slightly de-emphasized. Dover is the last chance for top drivers without All-Star eligibility - and yes, that includes Dale Earnhardt Jr. - to earn their way into the event without having to either rely on a last-chance victory in the Sprint Showdown or fan vote.

So let’s make this interesting. My lead pick this week is going to be a driver that hasn’t won in a while. Ready?

Martin Truex Jr.: With Regan Smith taking the surprise victory at Darlington, I might as well go out on a limb and say that lightning can indeed strike twice. Dover is kind of a home track for the New Jersey native, and the site of his lone Sprint Cup win, back in 2007 when Dale Earnhardt Inc. was still a power player in the garage. He’s somewhat struggled at the track since, at least in the finishing order, but starts of first and third last year prove that he’s fast.

Carl Edwards: I could just as easily pick Jimmie Johnson as my alternate, with his six wins at Dover (three of the past four, too) to Edwards’ one. In fact, I probably should. But I won’t. Why? Simple - consistency. When you’re faced with two drivers who perform so well at this track, you might as well go with the guy with the slight edge in consistency, and that’s Edwards. Since 2006, Edwards has only finished outside of the top 10 two times, to Johnson’s four. He just edges Johnson in points scored at the track, 1561 to 1539, in that time frame. You can pick either, but I’m going with Edwards.

Joey Logano: Oh hi, dark horse. Logano has underperformed this year, never cracking the top 20 in points or a single-digit finishing position, but maybe Dover will help him turn it around. Last year he scored finishes of 10th and third in the two Dover races, spending 724 out of 800 laps in the top 10. He also won both Nationwide poles and finished second both times that series took on the Monster Mile in 2010. Even if he hasn’t won at the track yet in either series, he clearly knows how to run up front here.

Filed under: Carl Edwards, Dover International Speedway, Joey Logano, Martin Truex Jr., NASCAR Fantasy Gaming

Tagged with: Carl Edwards, Dover International Speedway, Fantasy Pick'Em, FedEx 400 benefiting Autism Speaks, jimmie johnson, Joey Logano, Martin Truex Jr., Regan Smith

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Fantasy Pick’Em: 2010 AAA Texas 500

by Chris Leone, Special To NASCAR commentary and driver pictures, 2011 NASCAR schedule, video, Bench Racing With Steve and Charlie

November 4, 2010 4:16 pm CDT No Comments

Tony Stewart practicing at Pocono

The Sprint Cup Series comes down to the final three races of the 2010 season with this weekend’s visit to Texas Motor Speedway. The AAA Texas 500 will mark the final race on a cookie-cutter 1.5-mile tri-oval this year, as the final two races take place at Phoenix and Homestead, respectively.

After everybody with a legitimate title shot managed to survive Talladega, the top three in points are now separated by under 40 points. Jimmie Johnson maintains the lead over second-place Denny Hamlin and third-place Kevin Harvick, but the margins are slim enough that anything can happen. Any of the three could come into the final two races of the year with the points lead.

Of course, they’re, by extension, the best three fantasy bets this weekend. But where’s the fun in that? Let’s make some interesting picks. I’m going to cut down from five to three this week, seeing as I just eliminated the three best available choices anyway.

My personal pick for the weekend is Tony Stewart, who somehow I have managed to avoid thus far during the Chase. Perhaps that’s been a good call – he’s had terrible luck in the Chase ever since the final two laps of the Loudon event. He has little momentum to build off of from the past few races as he lingers in the bottom half of Chase points.

But Smoke’s Texas results tell a decidedly different story. Though his peak years at the track came in 2005 and 2006, as he led double-digit laps in every event and won the fall 2006 race, he showed some muscle this spring by leading 74 laps from the pole before a late race crash eliminated any hopes of victory.

If Smoke’s bad luck is a turn-off, though, don’t forget about Mark Martin, whose 12.8 average Texas finish is fourth best of active drivers. That’s especially remarkable considering that in two of the first three Texas events ever held, Martin finished 34th or worse; however, he did win the other one, the 1998 event.

One of four drivers to run in all 19 Texas events held thus far, Martin has 10 other top-10 runs to back up that 1998 victory. Five of them have come in the past seven Texas events. And while Martin has only led three laps at the track since the spring of 2006, he’s shown the ability to keep the car out of trouble and close enough to the front to score plenty of points.

Finally, if you’re looking for a potential surprise pick, consider Martin Truex Jr. and his solid 13.9 average finish at Texas. Only two times in 10 starts has he failed to finish in the top 15, and in one of those events he led laps before his engine gave out. No, it’s not the most orthodox pick, but with only three races left in the season, who expects anything to play out predictably?

Filed under: One and Done NASCAR Fantasy Racing, Texas Motor Speedway

Tagged with: AAA Texas 500, Denny Hamlin, jimmie johnson, Kevin Harvick, Mark Martin, Martin Truex Jr., One and Done NASCAR Fantasy Racing, Texas Motor Speedway, Tony Stewart

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Fantasy Pick’Em: 2010 AAA 400

by Chris Leone, Special To NASCAR commentary and driver pictures, 2011 NASCAR schedule, video, Bench Racing With Steve and Charlie

September 23, 2010 8:12 am CDT No Comments

This weekend’s AAA 400 at Dover International Speedway marks the second of 10 races in the Chase for the Sprint Cup. Dominated last year by Jimmie Johnson, it will be the second consecutive race on a one-mile oval, although unlike New Hampshire the Dover track is heavily banked.

Clint Bowyer shocked us all by winning last weekend’s race at Loudon, but the news that his team altered rear end parts may have dried up all hope for that team. Bowyer’s whopping 150-point penalty basically makes it as if he finished last in the race, and puts him back in 12th in the Chase standings.

Yet again, we’ll stick with the tradition of picking one Chase driver as our lead driver each race in the Chase, and not re-using them for the duration of the event. This means Denny Hamlin (second place last weekend) can’t be my lead pick. So who will be this weekend? And who else looks good at Dover?

I’m going to go with Carl Edwards this time around. While Roush Fenway is struggling in the Chase standings, with all of its three candidates in the bottom half of the standings, Edwards showed a lot in the early to middle stages at Loudon. At Dover, his 7.9 average finish makes him the only driver to keep that stat in the single digits. Might as well use him up while he’s hot.

As for a dark horse pick, consider semi-local boy Martin Truex Jr., the New Jersey native who picked up his first career Sprint Cup win at the Monster Mile. He won the pole for the Dover spring race and has posted a solid 14.9 average finish, buoyed by three top-10s.

Three more for the road:

I’ll state once more that I want to save Jimmie Johnson for the end of the Chase (or as close to it as I can), but he’s statistically the second best finisher at Dover behind Edwards. His 10.2 comes from a magnificent five wins in 17 starts, while he has led at least 100 laps six times (including in each of the past three Dover events). Solid? I think so.

Next up, Greg Biffle hasn’t failed to complete a lap at Dover since the fall of 2005. Even then, that was a single lap. In that stretch of nine races since, Biffle has scored one of his two Dover wins and eight top-10s, with a worst finish of 13th. Despite Roush’s uncertainty after their New Hampshire runs, Biffle’s always a strong Dover contender.

Finally, for a left-field pick, consider Brad Keselowski. Last week’s pole winner has a strong Dover record in the Nationwide Series, scoring a victory in the spring of last year that helped propel his rise to Sprint Cup. Since joining JR Motorsports in that series, and now driving for Penske Racing, he has finished no worse than seventh in six Dover starts.

Filed under: Dover International Speedway, One and Done NASCAR Fantasy Racing

Tagged with: AAA 400, Brad Keselowski, Carl Edwards, chase for the sprint cup, Dover International Speedway, Greg Biffle, jimmie johnson, Martin Truex Jr., One and Done NASCAR Fantasy Racing

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Fantasy Pick’Em: 2010 Sylvania 300

by Chris Leone, Special To NASCAR commentary and driver pictures, 2011 NASCAR schedule, video, Bench Racing With Steve and Charlie

September 15, 2010 1:46 pm CDT No Comments

Welcome to the Chase for the Sprint Cup, folks. This weekend’s Sylvania 300 at New Hampshire Motor Speedway opens the ten-week playoff event for NASCAR’s premier series, as twelve drivers will compete for the Sprint Cup.

Keep in mind that any solid fantasy game (HINT HINT!!! PLAY ONE AND DONE HERE AT ON PIT ROW!!!) will add some interesting challenges for the rest of the season, such as only being able to pick Chase drivers once for the duration of the event. We’re going to take that philosophy to heart with this column. Inevitably, I’m going to pick a Chase driver as my top driver almost every week, but once he’s been selected, he won’t show up as the featured driver again. There will be, as usual, a couple of alternates, and the traditional dark horses that make this column interesting.

With that in mind, let’s get to this week’s top picks:

Denny Hamlin is a fantasy stud at New Hampshire, with no finishes worse than 15th at the track. The summer 2007 winner at Loudon finished second in this race last year after leading 22 laps and has completed the full race distance every time he’s competed at the track. Plus, coming off a win at Richmond with the Chase lead, he’s got the momentum.

As for a non-Chase driver, Ryan Newman’s the best available, with a 13.3 average finish coming out of 11 top-10s in 17 starts. Newman has two New Hampshire wins, coming in this race in 2002 and 2005, respectively. He also led laps in his first nine Loudon starts, and has paced the field in 14 of his 17 career races at the track.

Three more picks, for good measure/in case you want to save Hamlin for later:

I’d prefer to save Jimmie Johnson for later in the Chase, but if it’s your thing to go for him now, his 9.0 average finish and three Loudon wins in 17 starts is a pretty solid record. Save for a dismal 39th-place finish in this race in 2006, he’s a lot like Hamlin at this track, otherwise never running below 15th. Johnson also won the first Loudon race this year.

Tony Stewart hasn’t seen victory circle at New Hampshire since the summer of 2005, but his past six starts at the track have all seen top-15 finishes with many laps led. In fact, Stewart’s paced the field for at least one lap in 10 of his past 12 Loudon starts. Only twice did he fail to lead double-digit laps, and three times he led 132 or more.

Finally, for a left-field pick, consider local favorite Martin Truex Jr. The New Jersey driver made a name for himself in the old Busch North Series, which called Loudon its spiritual home. Truex, when competing for a solid team, really shows off for the home crowd – in 2007 and 2008, the years in which his Dale Earnhardt Inc. team was at its peak, he had three top five finishes in four starts and a worst finish of seventh. Michael Waltrip Racing isn’t quite DEI, but they’re a solid team at the very least. Consider Truex’s 22nd earlier this year a fluke.

Filed under: New Hampshire International Speedway, One and Done NASCAR Fantasy Racing

Tagged with: Denny Hamlin, jimmie johnson, Martin Truex Jr., New Hampshire Motor Speedway, One and Done NASCAR Fantasy Racing, Ryan Newman, sylvania 300, Tony Stewart

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Fantasy Pick’Em: 2010 Lenox 301

by Chris Leone, Special To NASCAR commentary and driver pictures, 2011 NASCAR schedule, video, Bench Racing With Steve and Charlie

June 24, 2010 11:20 am CDT 1 Comment

Jeff Gordon Pitstop at Michigan Speedway

This weekend’s Lenox 301 at New Hampshire Motor Speedway marks the first race of the Sprint Cup Series’ Race to the Chase, a ten-race dash to set the field for the Chase for the Sprint Cup at the end of the year. Right now, eight drivers are within 161 points (the maximum swing between first and last in a race) of 12th-place Carl Edwards, making the next ten races crucially important for those bubble drivers.

Loudon is a unique track to Sprint Cup, in that it is reminiscent of Martinsville on steroids. It’s a mile long, completely flat, and few drivers can maintain top ten average finishes at the track. Even the best Loudon drivers only crack the top ten about half the time.

So which drivers are good bets at the sport’s most northern track?

My pick for the weekend is Jeff Gordon. In 30 starts, he has an average finish of 11.4, with 13 top five results. Though he hasn’t won at the track since 1998, he has four finishes of third or better in the last seven Loudon races and led 64 laps in this event last year. He’ll be looking for a long overdue first win of the season.

My dark horse for the weekend is Martin Truex Jr., racing once again at his home track, per se. The New Jersey native finished in the top ten each time he ran at Loudon in 2007 and 2008, with last year’s poor finishes an aberration. It was his big wins at Loudon in the K&N East Series that actually put him in position to step up to the big time in the first place. Truex will also be looking to make up for a race ruined by Gordon last weekend.

Three more, as per usual:

Denny Hamlin has the best average finish of a driver with a significant amount of starts at Loudon. In eight races, he’s put up a 7.5 average, with one win and six top fives. More impressive, Hamlin has never failed to complete a lap at the track, nor has he ever finished worse than 15th.

Any longtime fan of the sport, or of this track, knows that Jeff Burton once owned Loudon like no other driver could ever imagine. From 1997 to 2000, Burton won a race every year, with his 300-out-of-300 laps led in the fall of 2000 his masterpiece at the track. Sure, Burton hasn’t won there since, but he’s continued to put up solid runs.

Finally, let’s go way out in left field and give Bobby Labonte a little name recognition. He’s just left TRG Motorsports and will attempt to run the full race in Robby Gordon’s unsponsored No. 7 car. He actually led in both Loudon races last year, and although his finishes haven’t shown it as of late, he was once a shoo-in for top finishes every race. His feedback on the car will help Gordon’s team move forward as they attempt to gain sponsorship for the rest of the season.

Filed under: Bobby Labonte, Denny Hamlin, Jeff Burton, Jeff Gordon, Martin Truex Jr., New Hampshire International Speedway, One and Done NASCAR Fantasy Racing

Tagged with: Bobby Labonte, Denny Hamlin, Jeff Burton, Jeff Gordon, Lenox 301, Martin Truex Jr., New Hampshire Motor Speedway, One and Done NASCAR Fantasy Racing

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