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Fantasy Pick’Em: 2010 Daytona 500

by Chris Leone, Special To NASCAR commentary,NASCAR video,NASCAR pictures, Bench Racing With Steve and Charlie

If OnPitRow.com was a NASCAR team, I’d be the development driver of the bunch. In the same way that young hotshots like Joey Logano have been driving since they were in grade school, I’ve been following and writing about all forms of motorsports since I was barely old enough to talk.

February 10, 2010 6:48 pm CST 2 Comments

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We’ll be two months and three weeks removed from the last points-paying NASCAR Sprint Cup Series race by the time the checkered flag drops at Daytona for the 52nd running of the Daytona 500.

Of course, everybody’s going to be extra hungry to take the checkered flag in the first and biggest race of the season - especially those drivers who are running limited schedules this season or others who failed to register a victory in 2009. But as we all know, only one will claim the victory and the Harley J. Earl Trophy.

This year’s fantasy column is going to run similarly to last year’s. I’ll pick five drivers with a shot to win, with one singled out as my pick and one left-field pick as my dark horse. It’s up to you folks playing fantasy racing games online to do the rest. Without further ado:

Tony Stewart is my pick to win the Daytona 500. Stewart-Haas Racing proved it was no pushover last year, and with a year under their belts they’ll be even stronger in 2010. Smoke is certainly hungry for a win in the 500, as his teammate (Ryan Newman) and crew chief (Darian Grubb) have both already won the biggest race. He’s got the stats to back him up too: In the 14 Daytona races since 2003, he has only failed to lead laps three times, and in both 2005 races he led over 100 laps. He’s also got three Daytona Cup wins, the most recent coming in last year’s Coke Zero 400.

My dark horse pick is another former Daytona winner, John Andretti. Running a dream schedule of major Cup events and likely the Indianapolis 500 this year, he’ll no longer have to worry about points racing and keeping a car in the top 35. He can run as hard as he wants when he races and go for victories. Keep in mind how Mark Martin elevated his game in 2007 with the pressure of points racing off his back, and nearly won the 500.

Three other drivers you can expect to do well on Sunday:

Marcos Ambrose has an average finish of 11.5, best among active drivers at Daytona. True, he’s only made two starts, but he hasn’t taken a big hit in the Cup cars, and he’s learned plenty from his Nationwide experience, including what it feels like to wreck at the superspeedway. He successfully avoided the accident at the end of last July’s race to finish sixth.

Dale Earnhardt Jr. desperately needs a strong run after a dismal 2009 that saw him sink to 25th in points, his worst ever showing in Sprint Cup. He qualified second, a sign that he’ll be fast on race day, but he needs to avoid the bad luck that plagued him at Daytona (as well as seemingly everywhere else) last year.

Finally, one cannot count out pole sitter Mark Martin. Sunday will mark the third time in four races he’ll sit on the front row of a Cup race at Daytona, and his first pole at the track since the 1989 Pepsi 400, in which he finished 16th. But shockingly, Martin has never won a points-paying Sprint Cup event at his home track (he lives in nearby Port Orange); in his 50th start at the track, can the 51-year-old win the 52nd Daytona 500?

Filed under: Dale Earnhardt Jr., Daytona International Speedway, John Andretti, Marcos Ambrose, Mark Martin, One and Done NASCAR Fantasy Racing, Tony Stewart

Tagged with: Dale Earnhardt Jr., Daytona 500, Daytona International Speedway, Fantasy Pick'Em, John Andretti, Marcos Ambrose, Mark Martin, Tony Stewart

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Sponsor Switches in NASCAR Just Part of the Business

by Chris Leone, Special To NASCAR commentary,NASCAR video,NASCAR pictures, Bench Racing With Steve and Charlie

December 24, 2009 4:41 pm CST No Comments

I saw the weirdest thing a few days ago.

I was in the middle of one of my thrice-daily Jayski.com runs, checking the paint scheme gallery for some of the cars that will run next year, when I saw a No. 99 Roush Fenway Racing Ford for Carl Edwards that had Kellogg’s and Cheez-It decals plastered all over it.

Now, don’t get me wrong, I had been aware of this sponsorship switch for at least a month. I knew it was coming. But something about seeing a tangible representation of the scheme just felt weird.

For one, it maintained the bright yellow that Kellogg’s had been using with Hendrick Motorsports since 2004, as well as the red and blue that had been accent colors. I knew they were Kellogg’s colors, but something about them felt more like Hendrick colors. Keep in mind that before Dale Earnhardt Jr. joined the team, all four cars ran that shade of yellow in their numbers. The blue also matched up best with CarQuest Auto Parts, a remaining Hendrick sponsor that had partnered with Kellogg’s on the No. 5 car for the past few years.

It felt kind of like a Hendrick Motorsports Ford, and kind of like somebody’s Photoshop project for a NASCAR computer gaming website. It felt like one of those ideas that sounded good at the time, but didn’t quite work out.

That’s when I remembered that it was a real car, due to hit the track in 2010, and that the 16-year relationship between Hendrick and Kellogg’s was no more.

It’s just part of the business - sponsors go wherever they feel they can get the most bang for their buck. Two races with the young and fit Carl Edwards made more sense to company execs than 18 races with the older (but similarly fit, and better performing on-track) Mark Martin.

Sponsor loyalty cannot be relied upon in the business anymore. How else can one explain Valvoline returning to Roush in a primary sponsorship role with Matt Kenseth next year, nine years after leaving Mark Martin for an ill-fated experiment in team ownership?

For what other reason would Subway shift its loyalty from Greg Biffle to Tony Stewart to Carl Edwards over the past three years?

It happens with every team, both big and small. Richard Childress Racing snagged two defectors; Caterpillar ended a 10-year relationship with Bill Davis Racing after the 2008 season to back Jeff Burton, while Cheerios ended an eight-year pact with Petty Enterprises to sponsor Clint Bowyer. Budweiser spent seven years with DEI from 2001 to 2007 before putting their money on Kasey Kahne when Earnhardt Jr. left. DeWalt had been with Kenseth since the late 1990s before leaving this year, although the company has chalked that up to not having the marketing dollars.

Regardless, it’s rare to see a driver, team, and sponsor stick with one another for any significant length of time anymore. We just don’t see as many Richard Petty-STP, Robert Yates-Texaco, or Morgan-McClure Motorsports-Kodak combinations anymore.

Sure, there will always be a DuPont car for Jeff Gordon, a Lowe’s car for Jimmie Johnson, and a Menards car for Paul Menard. Miller Lite will continue to adorn the hood of a Penske car, Interstate Batteries and the Home Depot will stay with Joe Gibbs Racing, and Michael Waltrip will always be able to bank on NAPA sponsorship dollars. Red Bull owns its own team. Aside from that, it’s a free-for-all.

NASCAR has gotten considerably more expensive as of late, with most team owners fielding at least two to three cars. Everybody wants to have four. This facilitates an environment in which sponsors are, as of late, less willing to be patient or stick with a good thing in place. Instead, they’re always trying to take the next step up, looking for a way to align themselves with a better driver for less money, even if it means sponsoring fewer races.

It’s unfortunate that it’s the way of the business, but it’s the nature of the beast these days. So when you see Jeff Gordon rejoin the Coca-Cola Racing Family, Tony Stewart appear on Cheerios and Wheaties boxes, or Joey Logano someday pitching Budweiser, don’t say I didn’t warn you.

I mean, Mark Martin’s a GoDaddy driver now, after all. It can’t make any less sense than that.

Filed under: Carl Edwards, Hendrick Motorsports, Mark Martin, Matt Kenseth, Roush Racing

Tagged with: Carl Edwards, Hendrick Motorsports, Mark Martin, Matt Kenseth, Roush-Fenway Racing, sponsorship changes

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Martin Realistic After Johnson’s Debacle At Texas

by Chris Leone, Special To NASCAR commentary,NASCAR video,NASCAR pictures, Bench Racing With Steve and Charlie

November 9, 2009 8:41 pm CST No Comments

Despite gaining 111 points on defending champion Jimmie Johnson in Sprint Cup points after the Dickies 500 at Texas, Mark Martin isn’t expecting his Hendrick Motorsports teammate to gift-wrap the title based on one poor performance.

Rather, the one they call “The Kid” is expecting a fight in the final two races just to stay a bridesmaid.

“I still have got my hands full for the top-six positions with all those guys — two guys that knocked me out of championships are breathing down my neck, so the race is still on,” Martin, 50, told the media after the race, in which he finished fourth. “I don’t know why everybody tries to cap this thing out and doesn’t just wait and watch. There are still two races to go and still things that can happen.”

One of those things happened to Johnson early in the race, after Sam Hornish Jr. sent him into the wall before the race was five minutes old. Losing dozens of laps while in the garage for repairs, Johnson returned to the track to finish 38th.

What had been a gimme championship, considering Johnson’s track record over the past few years, is now slightly more interesting.

True, Martin left 35 points on the table by failing to win and/or lead the most laps at Texas; the No. 5 car didn’t see the lead all day. A 38-point difference is much easier to overcome than one of 73 points - in the former scenario, were Martin to win at Phoenix, Johnson would lose the lead by finishing outside of the top five. In reality, Johnson only needs to crack the top 15, something that he has never failed to do at Phoenix.

That’s right. Johnson’s worst Phoenix finish is 15th, which occurred both in the fall of 2002 and the spring of 2005.

When a driver accrues as many strong finishes as Johnson has over the past few Chases, it’s easy and realistic for a driver to concede the title a few weeks early. But if any driver can challenge Johnson, it’s going to have to be Martin, who is the only driver within two figures of the three-time champ heading into the final two races of the season.

But while anything can happen (or has happened) to knock challengers out of title contention, even the almighty Jimmie Johnson is not immune to misfortune.

So while Mark Martin can talk about Johnson’s track record all he wants, there’s nothing to say that the same exact thing won’t happen next weekend at Phoenix. Being realistic is a positive, but resigning oneself to a bridesmaid?

Considering the way that 1990, 1994, 1998, and 2002 worked for him, it seems that second-place finishes are being realistic for NASCAR’s elder statesman.

Filed under: Chase for the Cup, Mark Martin, jimmie johnson

Tagged with: chase for the sprint cup, jimmie johnson, Mark Martin

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One and Done: AMP Energy 500

by Chris Leone, Special To NASCAR commentary,NASCAR video,NASCAR pictures, Bench Racing With Steve and Charlie

October 29, 2009 12:35 pm CDT 2 Comments

For the first time in its history, Talladega Superspeedway hosts a race in the Chase for the Sprint Cup, as NASCAR’s premiere series heads to Alabama this weekend for the AMP Energy 500.

Of the ten tracks in this year’s Chase, Talladega is by far the most unpredictable. Only four drivers boast an average finish better than 10.0 at the track, and they have a combined four starts - all of which occurred in this spring’s race. That event featured a wacky finish in which Brad Keselowski found himself in victory lane, but Carl Edwards found himself airborne.

At a massive track like Talladega, where the cars reach some of their highest speeds and restrictor plates bunch up the field, the “big one,” a massive 20-something car pileup, is looming around every corner, on every straightaway, in every drag race to the finish line. For that reason, picking this race is a crapshoot. Take everything with a full shaker of salt, and go with any hunch you might have.

Seriously. Scott Speed finished 5th here in the spring. Think about that.

If there’s any weekend where staying within the confines of Chase drivers isn’t necessary, it would be this one, because of the likelihood that an incident will wipe out half the field. Whoever survives the wreck, if it happens, probably won’t have the best car in the field, just the best luck, and luck doesn’t discriminate based on the points standings. But week in and week out, the Chase drivers give fantasy players the best chance of scoring a lot of points, so we might as well stick with the established system, no?

The five Chase drivers with the best records at Talladega:

Kurt Busch (avg. fn. 12.1): The older Busch brother has quietly assembled a solid Talladega record, with 12 top-10s in 17 starts. He has also led at least one lap in 13 of his 17 Talladega starts. Only two of his last 10 Talladega starts have been worse than eighth. While he’s never won a Cup race at the track, the first thing you look to do at Talladega is survive, and he’s only crashed out twice.

Tony Stewart (avg. fn. 13.8): Smoke “won” this race in controversial fashion last year (and as far as I’m concerned, that still should have been Regan Smith’s win). He’s led laps in 10 of the past 11 Talladega races, with the lone exception being this spring’s race. Smoke’s crashed out in four of his 21 starts, a slightly worse percentage than Busch, but he’s also been able to do something that Busch can’t say: finish better than third (one win and six second place finishes).

Mark Martin (avg. fn. 16.1): Martin only has five crashes at Talladega in 43 starts, a slightly better percentage than Busch, and both of his wins came after his horrendous 1994 incident, proving that bad crashes don’t negatively affect everybody. But the last of those wins came in 1997, and Martin only has six laps at Talladega under race conditions in the new car: he skipped the track altogether in 2007 and 2008, and his spring race was cut short by an early incident.

Jeff Gordon (avg. fn. 16.4): The spring race didn’t go well for Gordon, as he finished 60 laps off the pace in 37th. But he swept the track in 2007, and generally finds himself up front: he’s led laps in 12 of the last 14 Talladega races (including six of the last eight). A statistic that should bring pause, however: In 11 starts since 2004, Gordon has won four, but has not finished better than 15th in the other seven.

Ryan Newman (avg. fn. 18.5): Well, Newman ran well and led laps in the wacky spring race… He also hasn’t wrecked out of a Talladega race since 2005, as he kept the car going during the Edwards wreck and scored his career best finish at the track (third). Here’s a question for you: If taking another stock car off the hood meant improving by another couple of spots, think he would take it?

Filed under: One and Done NASCAR Fantasy Racing, Talladega Superspeedway

Tagged with: Amp Energy 500, Jeff Gordon, Kurt Busch, Mark Martin, One and Done NASCAR Fantasy Racing, Ryan Newman, Talladega Superspeedway, Tony Stewart

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About That Championship Chase…

by Chris Leone, Special To NASCAR commentary,NASCAR video,NASCAR pictures, Bench Racing With Steve and Charlie

October 20, 2009 1:13 pm CDT No Comments

So two weeks ago, after the Kansas race, I wrote an article about how this year’s Chase may not be settled as early as last year’s was. I wrote about how Tony Stewart, Juan Montoya, and especially Mark Martin would pose a challenge for three-time reigning champion Jimmie Johnson, and that it wasn’t going to be easy for the 48 team to 4-peat. And at the time, I fully believed it.

But after this weekend, I’m not so sure I buy into it anymore.

So Johnson couldn’t capitalize at Kansas. Big deal. He led huge chunks of the NASCAR Banking 500, both early and late. He had a driver rating of 139.1, nearly 14 points better than that of Kasey Kahne, who ran the second-best race according to NASCAR’s loop data. And after Martin finished a mediocre 17th, Johnson now has a 90-point lead in the standings.

Simply put, it’s gonna take a bad finish or two from Johnson to give anybody else a shot, and he simply doesn’t do that during the Chase.

The maximum point swing that can occur between any two drivers in the same race is 161 points. This requires one driver to finish first and lead the most laps, while the other finishes last and leads none. As the points stand right now, if Tony Stewart was able to pull that on Johnson next week, he’d still only be 11 points ahead of the 48 team in the standings.

Montoya is 190-plus points back in sixth after a dismal run at Lowe’s, effectively ending his championship hopes.

Even Hendrick Motorsports teammates Martin and Jeff Gordon, who run the same high-caliber equipment as Johnson, are going to need misfortune to befall the Lowe’s boys to make this thing interesting again, and that seems like it’s just not going to happen.

It’s been three full years since Johnson has finished worse than 15th in a Chase race. That race, the 2006 UAW-Ford 500 at Talladega, could have easily been won by Johnson, too, had then-teammate Brian Vickers not taken him out.

Oh, and about this weekend’s race at Martinsville: Johnson has won five of the last six races at the paper clip. He has 14 top-10s in 15 career starts at the track. The 48 car has spent time out front in nine of the past 11 Martinsville races, and he’s led at least 42 laps in each of those occurrences (winning six of them).

So, yeah, about that championship chase: Looks like I was wrong. Start buying the champagne, boys, you’ve all but won it.

Everybody else can wait ’til next year. Or the year after. Or the year after that…

Filed under: Chase for the Cup, Jeff Gordon, Juan Pablo Montoya, Mark Martin, NASCAR, Tony Stewart, jimmie johnson

Tagged with: Chase for the Cup, Jeff Gordon, jimmie johnson, Juan Montoya, Kansas Speedway, Mark Martin, Martinsville Speedway, NASCAR Banking 500, Tony Stewart

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Logano has Dover Crowd on its Feet as Johnson Wins

by Steve Wronkowicz

I am co-host of the syndicated radio show: ON PIT ROW. Charlie likes to call me an "idiot". I'm not an "idiot"; I just prefer not to let the facts get in the way of my opinions.

September 28, 2009 5:40 pm CDT No Comments

Jimmie Johnson took his place at the front of the field at Dover International Raceway.

While Johnson made a mockery of the field at Dover, rookie Joey Logano was capturing the press. Sure Johnson’s victory closed him to within ten points of The Chase leader, Mark Martn, but it was the spectacular wreck that Logano was involved in , that left the crowd concerned.

Logano slowed for traffic in front of him, but Tony Stewart was unable to avoid the car he formerly drove and tagged the back of the #20 sending Logano into the outside retaining wall;followed by a spectacular seven revolution barrel roll down the front stretch at the Monster Mile. “Sliced Bread” left the batterd ride after it had stopped momentarily on it’s driver side door before ending on it’s wheels.

Logano emerged from the damaged car without serious injury and waved to the fans as he made his way to the ambulance for the precautionary ride to the infield care center. This new car once again proved how well it withstands damage and protects the driver.

It also shows that the cars still have a want to get upside down. Roof flaps solved that problem on the old car but the front splitter and rear wing combination have proven to be more of a challenge for the aerodynamicist. By definition the rear wing on the new car is designed to keep the rear of the car on the ground, but when it is turned up-side-down it does as any wing does and creates lift. Once the new car gets upset it doesn’t lend itself to minor mishaps.

NASCAR will figure this out and make the car perform better. It may come with some help from the Nationwide COT as it develops.

This week’s BUZZ ON PIT ROW is this:

Should NASCAR and its drivers be concerned with the airborne tendencies of this car?

Let us know what you think and we could use your answer on this weeks radio show. Tune in to ON PIT ROW every Tuesday from 5-7pm ET. You could win a Kevin Harvick bobblehead if you are the Shell-Fuel My Passion Call of the Day.

photo credit: Jerry Markland/Getty Images for NASCAR

Filed under: Brian France, Car of Tomorrow, Chase for the Cup, Clint Boyer, How to fix NASCAR, Jeff Gordon, NASCAR, On Pit Row The Fastest Two Hours on Radio

Tagged with: jimmie johnson, Joey Logano, Mark Martin, Tony Stewart

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