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Fantasy Pick’Em: Toyota/Save Mart 350

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by Chris Leone, Special To NASCAR commentary and driver pictures, 2012 NASCAR schedule, video, Bench Racing With Steve and Charlie

I do weekly Fantasy Pick'Em columns here at OPR, as well as the occasional opinion and analysis piece. I also provide the IZOD IndyCar Series coverage. For more on that, head to my site, OpenWheelAmerica.com. My Twitter handle is @christopherlion.

June 25, 2011 11:08 am UTC 1 Comment

#7 Robby Gordon in garage Michigan International Speedway heisler 10

#7 Robby Gordon in garage Michigan International Speedway heisler 10

Sorry about missing last week’s column, folks. Let’s just say that when your team (GO BRUINS!!!) wins its first Stanley Cup in 39 years, you may or may not take a little license to enjoy yourself in the aftermath. No, it wasn’t quite the $156,679.74 bar tab that they allegedly piled on at Foxwoods, but it sure was a fun time.

And now, like Bradley Cooper in The Hangover: Part 2, I wake up in an unfamiliar land with my head throbbing, surrounded by people I don’t know. Wait, that happens twice a year anyway, whenever we go to the two road courses on the schedule – Infineon Raceway and Watkins Glen International, respectively. But we’re in Infineon this week.

So, in the spirit of making wholly uninteresting picks as usual, let’s go with the top three road course drivers in Sprint Cup and call it a day, shall we? I need to go get an ice pack for this headache.

Robby Gordon: Look, this dude is due in the NAS-karma department. They penalize him every year, he runs into horrendous luck on the road courses despite owning everybody on the speed charts, and doesn’t even really have sponsorship anymore besides his own energy drink. You don’t think the little guy is due for another big win? It happened to Trevor Bayne and Regan Smith this year, there’s no reason it couldn’t happen to Robby.

Marcos Ambrose: Another guy who could use some good mojo after last year’s embarrassment while in the lead. Whoever thought it would be a good idea to shut the engine off while the car was going uphill probably took a long walk of shame that time around, but not this year. Marcos has a new team and a $1 million charity initiative – he’s going to want to win this race as bad as anyone.

Juan Pablo Montoya: If you don’t know Montoya’s career accomplishments by now, I can’t help you, because I’m sure they’ve been dispensed at least 100 times by now this weekend. Let’s just put it this way. This was the first Sprint Cup race that Montoya ever won, back in his 2007 rookie season, when he was still adjusting to stock cars. There’s no reason he can’t win it again.

Filed under: Infineon Raceway, Juan Pablo Montoya, Marcos Ambrose, NASCAR, NASCAR Fantasy Gaming, road course ringers, Robby Gordon 

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Fantasy Pick’Em: 2011 Matthew & Daniel Hansen 400

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by Chris Leone, Special To NASCAR commentary and driver pictures, 2012 NASCAR schedule, video, Bench Racing With Steve and Charlie

I do weekly Fantasy Pick'Em columns here at OPR, as well as the occasional opinion and analysis piece. I also provide the IZOD IndyCar Series coverage. For more on that, head to my site, OpenWheelAmerica.com. My Twitter handle is @christopherlion.

April 27, 2011 4:10 pm UTC No Comments

Hello, Richmond. One of the most fun tracks on the Sprint Cup schedule, the track will end racing for the month of April with a 400-lap tilt under the bright lights on Saturday night.

Richmond is also the home track of Denny Hamlin, who will host his Short Track Showdown at the track for the first time on Thursday night. After a few years at the since-closed Southside Speedway, Hamlin will bring his own late model charity event to a much bigger stage, even attracting a SPEED Channel broadcast. Maybe it’ll be some good karma for the struggling Hamlin, who currently sits 17th in points after nearly winning it all last year.

I don’t have Hamlin on my short list of fantasy picks this week, though – not as my favorite, my alternate, or my dark horse. So, who am I picking over the guy who’s won two of the last three at Richmond?

Kyle Busch: The two-time race defending champion, of course. Last year, Rowdy dominated by leading 226 of 400 laps, including the first 140, and getting by Jeff Gordon for the final five circuits to cement his first victory of the season. Through two short track races this year, he’s been the top driver as well, scoring a series-best 90 points and leading 304 of 1000 laps. If he’s not your guy, he should be.

Dale Earnhardt Jr.: The momentum’s there. The will to win, if it was ever gone, is back. The last time Junior saw a short track (at Martinsville) he led as late as lap 496 of 500 and finished second. The turnaround within the No. 88 shop (or, technically, the consistently high level of performance in the former No. 24 shop) has the sport’s most popular driver contending for wins every weekend now, but he still has to break through. This could be the weekend.

Marcos Ambrose: Don’t ask me why, I just have a hunch. Well, a hunch influenced by a solid average finish of 11.8 in four Richmond starts, including runs of ninth (spring) and fifth (fall) last year. Richard Petty Motorsports has an issue with inconsistency, as it seems Ambrose will only run well when A.J. Allmendinger doesn’t, and vice versa. If you buy into that coincidence as theory, then Allmendinger’s 11th-place run two weeks ago at Talladega, combined with Ambrose’s crash-influenced 32nd-place finish, should mean Ambrose will run well on Saturday.

Filed under: Dale Earnhardt Jr., Kyle Busch, Marcos Ambrose, NASCAR Fantasy Gaming, Richmond International Raceway 

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Fantasy Pick’Em: Air Guard 400

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by Chris Leone, Special To NASCAR commentary and driver pictures, 2012 NASCAR schedule, video, Bench Racing With Steve and Charlie

I do weekly Fantasy Pick'Em columns here at OPR, as well as the occasional opinion and analysis piece. I also provide the IZOD IndyCar Series coverage. For more on that, head to my site, OpenWheelAmerica.com. My Twitter handle is @christopherlion.

September 9, 2010 6:42 am UTC No Comments

This is it – we’re down to the final race of the Sprint Cup Series regular season, the Air Guard 400 at Richmond International Raceway. For those of you who want to hang out during this weekend’s live blog at Bleacher Report, I’ll be in charge, so feel free to stop by and enjoy yourself.

There’s usually a bit of drama in this race every year as the final drivers to make it into the Chase settle in. But Greg Biffle needs only to finish 42nd to be guaranteed in, while Clint Bowyer’s magic number is 28th. Don’t expect a surprise move by Jamie McMurray to make it (even though it appears that every time we don’t expect him to perform well, he does).

So who looks good for this weekend’s race?

My pick for the weekend is Kyle Busch, because not picking him at Richmond is to bet on the snowball in hell. True, he only has two wins in 11 starts, but nine top five finishes? Zero finishes off the lead lap? Over ten percent of a possible 4410 laps spent in front? Come on.

I suppose Mark Martin, based on his recent performance and the unlikely chances of him making this year’s Chase, can be considered a dark horse, right? Martin’s got 27 top-10s in 49 Richmond starts. Ironically, a 46-point penalty accrued lone win at Richmond, in 1990, was the difference between winning and losing that year’s championship to Dale Earnhardt.

Three more, to substantiate the column and make your fantasy prospects that much more interesting:

Clint Bowyer’s never finished worse than 18th at Richmond, making his Chase prospects look pretty good (well, on a “making it in” basis). True, finishing 12th four times isn’t wildly impressive, with his spring 2008 win his only top five finish at the track. But he gets the job done, at the very least, and that makes him a solid pick.

If Bowyer stumbles, though, and Jamie McMurray can’t pull off a Chase shocker, look for Ryan Newman to do everything he can to play the spoiler. Newman’s got 11 top-10s in 17 Richmond starts, marked by a win in this race in 2003. Be wary, though – Newman has finished better in the spring Richmond race than the fall one in each of the past six years.

Finally, if you want a true left-field pick, have a look at Marcos Ambrose. He’s got two finishes of 11th or better at Richmond. In a way, Richmond is a lot like the V8 Supercar circuits that Ambrose conquered down in Australia, featuring sharp turns with a lot of heavy braking. He’s no championship threat, but he can surprise with a decent finish. (By the same token, so, too, might Mattias Ekstrom, the Red Bull driver who has made a name for himself as the DTM touring car champion in Germany.)

Filed under: One and Done NASCAR Fantasy Racing, Richmond International Raceway 

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Fantasy Pick’Em: 2010 Irwin Tools Night Race

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by Chris Leone, Special To NASCAR commentary and driver pictures, 2012 NASCAR schedule, video, Bench Racing With Steve and Charlie

I do weekly Fantasy Pick'Em columns here at OPR, as well as the occasional opinion and analysis piece. I also provide the IZOD IndyCar Series coverage. For more on that, head to my site, OpenWheelAmerica.com. My Twitter handle is @christopherlion.

August 18, 2010 5:59 pm UTC No Comments

If NASCAR had to, for some strange reason, pare down the Sprint Cup season to only five races, this weekend’s Irwin Tools Night Race at Bristol Motor Speedway would be almost certain to make the cut.

The rough-and-tumble racing that Bristol is famous for, under the Saturday night lights in the dog days of summer, provides fans with a powder keg that’s ready to explode at any moment – and frequently does, claiming many contenders along the way. Many fans will never forget Dale Earnhardt punting Terry Labonte out of the way to win the 1999 edition, nor the post-race fireworks between Carl Edwards and Kyle Busch a couple years ago.

So who’s got a shot at surviving the event and driving into victory lane this year?

Bristol is one of Busch’s best tracks, and its tendency to produce interesting and exciting on-track action makes it a perfect fit for him. His 10.1 average finish trumps all other active drivers. Besides this spring’s aberration, Busch hadn’t failed to lead in a Bristol race since his 2005 rookie season. He has three wins at the track, and top-two finishes in three of the past four Bristol events. He’s my pick.

My dark horse pick for this weekend is Marcos Ambrose, who had finishes of 10th and 3rd at Bristol last year but a dismal 33rd this past spring. Now that he and JTG Daugherty Racing have both announced plans for 2011 that don’t involve one another, they might just mail it in until the end of the year. On the other hand, they could both step up their game, showing their new partners (Richard Petty Motorsports for Ambrose, Bobby Labonte for JTG) a commitment to a strong year next year.

Three more, because we can:

Greg Biffle, despite having never won at Bristol in a Sprint Cup car, has the second best average finish of active drivers at the track, a solid 11.0. He’s got six top fives and nine top-10s in 15 starts. His Roush Fenway Racing team is also peaking at the right time, finding victory lane and the front of the pack these past few weeks in the wake of owner Jack Roush’s plane crash. Roush cars won this race each year from 2005 to 2008, and there’s no reason to think they can’t again.

Kevin Harvick is the only driver to have a Chase berth right now. Coming off that clinch, his Michigan victory, and a lucrative sponsorship deal with Budweiser for 2011, Happy’s gotta be living up to his nickname right now, and the momentum can certainly carry into Bristol. Harvick can be Superman at Bristol – while the box score for his 2005 victory at the track says he started 13th, he actually started dead last due to unapproved impound work and passed every car in the field for the victory.

Finally, Kurt Busch has the second-best winning percentage at Bristol of active drivers, behind only brother Kyle. And while four of his five wins came in 2004 or earlier, he showed us all a thing or two about how to race at Bristol this spring, leading a race-high 278 laps and finishing third. While Jimmie Johnson may have used that race to get the Bristol monkey off his back, Busch showed the field that he had his old Bristol magic back.

Filed under: Bristol Motor Speedway, One and Done NASCAR Fantasy Racing 

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Fantasy Pick’Em: 2010 Heluva Good! Sour Cream Dips at The Glen

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by Chris Leone, Special To NASCAR commentary and driver pictures, 2012 NASCAR schedule, video, Bench Racing With Steve and Charlie

I do weekly Fantasy Pick'Em columns here at OPR, as well as the occasional opinion and analysis piece. I also provide the IZOD IndyCar Series coverage. For more on that, head to my site, OpenWheelAmerica.com. My Twitter handle is @christopherlion.

August 5, 2010 7:29 am UTC No Comments

NASCAR Sprint Cup Series at Watkins Glen, August 2007This week the Sprint Cup Series ends its 2010 road course sojourn with a trip to western New York and Watkins Glen International. Home of fine wines and fast cars, the track hosts this weekend’s Heluva Good! Sour Cream Dips at the Glen.

I attended the IZOD IndyCar Series race at the Glen earlier this year, and let me say that any traveling race fan that hasn’t experienced a weekend at the track doesn’t know what they’re missing. Watkins Glen is a quaint little town with all the amenities and brand names one could ask for, and the track provides fans with many prime spots from which to watch a race. And if you were impressed by the show that IndyCar put on, just imagine multiplying the crowds and fanfare by a significant number, and you have an American race fan’s dream.

So who’s going to take the checkers this weekend?

History (and a 5.3 average finish) suggest that Tony Stewart is the man to beat this weekend. Stewart has an incredible five wins in 11 Glen starts, and nine top-10s. Of his two worse finishes, one was an 11th place. He’s never failed to complete a lap there, much less accrue a DNF, making him the undisputed king of the track.

I’m not sure if you can call Marcos Ambrose a total dark horse at the Glen, seeing as his average finish is 2.5, but he’s never sealed the deal in a Cup race, and a killer mistake at Infineon robbed him of what should have been much closer to a victory, suggesting that he and his team still have a little way to go to pull it off. Ambrose has taken the checkers in Nationwide races at the Glen, though, and it will be interesting to see if his apparent mastery of the track will offset any doldrums that come with being a lame-duck driver at a midpack team with bad luck thus far.

Three more, because tradition says so:

Mark Martin‘s got three Glen wins in 20 starts and hasn’t failed to complete a lap there since 1986 (excluding the 2007 and 2008 races, which he skipped). The wins came during an incredible three-year stretch from 1993 to 1995, where he won the pole and led 183 of a possible 270 laps. There are just as many knocks on him, though. First of all, this has been a tough year for the team; second, he hasn’t led a lap at the Glen in his past seven starts; finally, his last two Glen finishes have been 20th and 23rd, respectively. Pick carefully.

Robby Gordon is always a threat at the Glen, having scored seven top five finishes in 11 starts and a win in 2003. Normally the only knock against Gordon is failed alternate pit strategy that doesn’t work out in the end. Fans can always count on the independent to put on a good show, especially with the added data from a second, P.J. Jones-piloted car each time the series turns both ways.

Finally, A.J. Allmendinger is a decent pick that can be expected to exceed his previous finishes at the Glen – 11th and 13th in two career starts. The ex-Champ Car star’s future is now set at Richard Petty Motorsports, with a multi-year contract extension in place, and the confidence that comes with being the team’s new number one driver should allow him to open up a little this weekend and show off the road course talent that convinced Red Bull to bring him to stock cars in the first place a few years ago.

Filed under: One and Done NASCAR Fantasy Racing, Watkins Glen 

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Fantasy Pick’Em: 2010 Food City 500

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by Chris Leone, Special To NASCAR commentary and driver pictures, 2012 NASCAR schedule, video, Bench Racing With Steve and Charlie

I do weekly Fantasy Pick'Em columns here at OPR, as well as the occasional opinion and analysis piece. I also provide the IZOD IndyCar Series coverage. For more on that, head to my site, OpenWheelAmerica.com. My Twitter handle is @christopherlion.

March 17, 2010 3:20 pm UTC No Comments

With four races in the books, the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series will head to Bristol Motor Speedway for this weekend’s Food City 500. Kurt Busch will attempt to follow up his win at Atlanta two weeks ago by winning this race for the fifth time.

Hope everybody’s all rested up after the off weekend, but it’s high time that we get into the swing of things and kick this season into full gear. This will be the last race that 2009 owner’s points determine the cars locked into the starting field for this season, so expect some backmarkers to try and push towards the front.

My pick for the weekend stays in the Busch family – I’m picking Kyle to win. Easy, I know. But in his last three Bristol starts, he has accumulated an average finish of 1.3 while leading 861 of a possible 1503 laps. That’s over 57% of his past three Bristol starts. Also keep in mind that Rowdy has led a lap in every Bristol race dating back to the spring of 2006, and has led in double digits in five of those eight events.

My dark horse for the week has to be Marcos Ambrose. Still looking for his first top-10 of the season, mired at 28th in points due to DNFs at Daytona and California, Ambrose has finishes of 10th and 3rd at Bristol in Cup cars. Bristol is known as a track of heavy beating and banging, as are the V8 Supercars that Ambrose drove in Australia before coming stateside.

Three more, as per tradition:

Kurt Busch. I’ve discovered over the years that a solid projection of a driver’s skill at any once track is the amount of top-10s he accumulates. If, over a career of decent length, he finishes in the top 10 about half the time, he is usually judged as a star at that given track. That would be Busch at Bristol… oh, and the five career wins there help too.

Dale Earnhardt Jr. has been decent at Bristol since joining Hendrick Motorsports, though it was mostly his work with Dale Earnhardt Inc. that currently gives him the sixth best average finish at Bristol of all active drivers. He’s also been fast for much of the year, with an average start of 8.5. Qualifying up front at such a small track gives drivers an inherent advantage, not only because leaders can catch lapped traffic quickly, but also because of their better pit selection – though that mattered more when Bristol separated its backstretch pits from its frontstretch ones.

Finally, let’s not forget that Kevin Harvick has a strong Bristol record. While he only has one win, the current series points leader has 11 top-10s in 18 career starts. Happy’s also in the best equipment he’s had in years, and there’s no reason to expect things to drop off now.

Filed under: Bristol Motor Speedway, Kyle Busch, One and Done NASCAR Fantasy Racing 

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