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Fantasy Pick’Em: 2010 Pepsi Max 400

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by Chris Leone, Special To NASCAR commentary and driver pictures, 2011 NASCAR schedule, video, Bench Racing With Steve and Charlie

I do weekly Fantasy Pick'Em columns here at OPR, as well as the occasional opinion and analysis piece. I also provide the IZOD IndyCar Series coverage. For more on that, head to my site, OpenWheelAmerica.com. My Twitter handle is @christopherlion.

October 7, 2010 10:20 am UTC No Comments

Jimmie Johnson Chad Knause victory lane Dover

Jimmie Johnson Chad Knause victory lane Dover

The Chase for the Sprint Cup continues this weekend at the Auto Club Speedway, as Sprint Cup Series teams prepare for the Pepsi Max 400.

It’s the fourth race of the Chase, and by this the point the championship contenders are beginning to separate themselves from the pretenders.

Most of the Chasers are still within 100 points of new leader Jimmie Johnson, but most will surely find it hard to top the four-time defending champion. Clint Bowyer, after losing his appeal on a car that failed to meet specifications after New Hampshire, has conceded the title fight, but the other 10 are still looking to do the impossible.

California thus marks a pivotal race in the Chase, as Cup drivers now look to stay close to Johnson now that he may have taken the points lead for good. Johnson aside, who looks good at California?

Kyle Busch isn’t the best active driver at California, with an average finish of 10.8. But eight top-10s in 12 starts and a victory show that he can get the job done. After battles with David Reutimann sabotaged his Kansas finish by knocking the car out of whack, he’ll have no choice but to do just that. That extra motivation is why he’s my pick this week.

As for a dark horse, look to Richard Petty Motorsports’ soon-to-be-departing lead driver Kasey Kahne. In 13 California starts, Kahne’s got a win and seven top-10s at the track. It’s only been bad luck at the track as of late that keeps him from having a better record.

Three more – again, staying away from Johnson, if only for a week:

Matt Kenseth began to inject a little life into his Chase hopes with a top-10 finish at Kansas. Even though he would be 12th in the Chase if not for the Bowyer penalty, Kenseth should be a threat at California – he’s finished in the top 10 there in 12 of 17 attempts. It’s a Roush Fenway thing – the team employs (or has employed) five of the 10 best active drivers at the track.

Kurt Busch has seen a little less success at California than his brother, with only eight top-10s in 16 starts at the track. But he, too, has visited victory lane at the track, albeit back in 2003. Still, his past six California starts have resulted in five finishes of 13th or better.

As for a left-field pick, consider Jamie McMurray and his 16.4 average finish at the track. McMurray was my dark horse pick at the track earlier this season. He struggled at the track with Roush, ironically, but has been considerably better at the track while driving for Chip Ganassi. In his first go-round with the team, between 2003 and 2005, his average finish was 7.2; earlier this year, he qualified on pole.

Let’s admit something, though, before we wrap up: Johnson is the ultimate pick here, as he is at about half the Chase tracks. From his 5.5 average finish and five wins, including four in his past six starts, you would think that his home track would also be his best. It’s actually not – it’s only his third best. Talk about a testament to how good this guy is.

Photo credit: Glenn Bure, OnPitRow.com

Filed under: Auto Club Speedway, One and Done NASCAR Fantasy Racing 

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Fantasy Pick’Em: Air Guard 400

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by Chris Leone, Special To NASCAR commentary and driver pictures, 2011 NASCAR schedule, video, Bench Racing With Steve and Charlie

I do weekly Fantasy Pick'Em columns here at OPR, as well as the occasional opinion and analysis piece. I also provide the IZOD IndyCar Series coverage. For more on that, head to my site, OpenWheelAmerica.com. My Twitter handle is @christopherlion.

September 9, 2010 6:42 am UTC No Comments

This is it – we’re down to the final race of the Sprint Cup Series regular season, the Air Guard 400 at Richmond International Raceway. For those of you who want to hang out during this weekend’s live blog at Bleacher Report, I’ll be in charge, so feel free to stop by and enjoy yourself.

There’s usually a bit of drama in this race every year as the final drivers to make it into the Chase settle in. But Greg Biffle needs only to finish 42nd to be guaranteed in, while Clint Bowyer’s magic number is 28th. Don’t expect a surprise move by Jamie McMurray to make it (even though it appears that every time we don’t expect him to perform well, he does).

So who looks good for this weekend’s race?

My pick for the weekend is Kyle Busch, because not picking him at Richmond is to bet on the snowball in hell. True, he only has two wins in 11 starts, but nine top five finishes? Zero finishes off the lead lap? Over ten percent of a possible 4410 laps spent in front? Come on.

I suppose Mark Martin, based on his recent performance and the unlikely chances of him making this year’s Chase, can be considered a dark horse, right? Martin’s got 27 top-10s in 49 Richmond starts. Ironically, a 46-point penalty accrued lone win at Richmond, in 1990, was the difference between winning and losing that year’s championship to Dale Earnhardt.

Three more, to substantiate the column and make your fantasy prospects that much more interesting:

Clint Bowyer’s never finished worse than 18th at Richmond, making his Chase prospects look pretty good (well, on a “making it in” basis). True, finishing 12th four times isn’t wildly impressive, with his spring 2008 win his only top five finish at the track. But he gets the job done, at the very least, and that makes him a solid pick.

If Bowyer stumbles, though, and Jamie McMurray can’t pull off a Chase shocker, look for Ryan Newman to do everything he can to play the spoiler. Newman’s got 11 top-10s in 17 Richmond starts, marked by a win in this race in 2003. Be wary, though – Newman has finished better in the spring Richmond race than the fall one in each of the past six years.

Finally, if you want a true left-field pick, have a look at Marcos Ambrose. He’s got two finishes of 11th or better at Richmond. In a way, Richmond is a lot like the V8 Supercar circuits that Ambrose conquered down in Australia, featuring sharp turns with a lot of heavy braking. He’s no championship threat, but he can surprise with a decent finish. (By the same token, so, too, might Mattias Ekstrom, the Red Bull driver who has made a name for himself as the DTM touring car champion in Germany.)

Filed under: One and Done NASCAR Fantasy Racing, Richmond International Raceway 

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Fantasy Pick’Em: 2010 Irwin Tools Night Race

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by Chris Leone, Special To NASCAR commentary and driver pictures, 2011 NASCAR schedule, video, Bench Racing With Steve and Charlie

I do weekly Fantasy Pick'Em columns here at OPR, as well as the occasional opinion and analysis piece. I also provide the IZOD IndyCar Series coverage. For more on that, head to my site, OpenWheelAmerica.com. My Twitter handle is @christopherlion.

August 18, 2010 5:59 pm UTC No Comments

If NASCAR had to, for some strange reason, pare down the Sprint Cup season to only five races, this weekend’s Irwin Tools Night Race at Bristol Motor Speedway would be almost certain to make the cut.

The rough-and-tumble racing that Bristol is famous for, under the Saturday night lights in the dog days of summer, provides fans with a powder keg that’s ready to explode at any moment – and frequently does, claiming many contenders along the way. Many fans will never forget Dale Earnhardt punting Terry Labonte out of the way to win the 1999 edition, nor the post-race fireworks between Carl Edwards and Kyle Busch a couple years ago.

So who’s got a shot at surviving the event and driving into victory lane this year?

Bristol is one of Busch’s best tracks, and its tendency to produce interesting and exciting on-track action makes it a perfect fit for him. His 10.1 average finish trumps all other active drivers. Besides this spring’s aberration, Busch hadn’t failed to lead in a Bristol race since his 2005 rookie season. He has three wins at the track, and top-two finishes in three of the past four Bristol events. He’s my pick.

My dark horse pick for this weekend is Marcos Ambrose, who had finishes of 10th and 3rd at Bristol last year but a dismal 33rd this past spring. Now that he and JTG Daugherty Racing have both announced plans for 2011 that don’t involve one another, they might just mail it in until the end of the year. On the other hand, they could both step up their game, showing their new partners (Richard Petty Motorsports for Ambrose, Bobby Labonte for JTG) a commitment to a strong year next year.

Three more, because we can:

Greg Biffle, despite having never won at Bristol in a Sprint Cup car, has the second best average finish of active drivers at the track, a solid 11.0. He’s got six top fives and nine top-10s in 15 starts. His Roush Fenway Racing team is also peaking at the right time, finding victory lane and the front of the pack these past few weeks in the wake of owner Jack Roush’s plane crash. Roush cars won this race each year from 2005 to 2008, and there’s no reason to think they can’t again.

Kevin Harvick is the only driver to have a Chase berth right now. Coming off that clinch, his Michigan victory, and a lucrative sponsorship deal with Budweiser for 2011, Happy’s gotta be living up to his nickname right now, and the momentum can certainly carry into Bristol. Harvick can be Superman at Bristol – while the box score for his 2005 victory at the track says he started 13th, he actually started dead last due to unapproved impound work and passed every car in the field for the victory.

Finally, Kurt Busch has the second-best winning percentage at Bristol of active drivers, behind only brother Kyle. And while four of his five wins came in 2004 or earlier, he showed us all a thing or two about how to race at Bristol this spring, leading a race-high 278 laps and finishing third. While Jimmie Johnson may have used that race to get the Bristol monkey off his back, Busch showed the field that he had his old Bristol magic back.

Filed under: Bristol Motor Speedway, One and Done NASCAR Fantasy Racing 

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Fantasy Pick’Em: 2010 Crown Royal 400

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by Chris Leone, Special To NASCAR commentary and driver pictures, 2011 NASCAR schedule, video, Bench Racing With Steve and Charlie

I do weekly Fantasy Pick'Em columns here at OPR, as well as the occasional opinion and analysis piece. I also provide the IZOD IndyCar Series coverage. For more on that, head to my site, OpenWheelAmerica.com. My Twitter handle is @christopherlion.

April 29, 2010 12:41 pm UTC No Comments

After last week’s exciting race at Talladega, the Sprint Cup Series moves to the bullring that is the Richmond International Raceway for this weekend’s Crown Royal 400. Kyle Busch won this race last year for his first Richmond victory in Cup, and will look to repeat this weekend.

Talladega certainly set a high bar for the racing at Richmond, with record amounts of leaders and lead changes alike. If you were making fantasy picks, I hope you guessed correctly – I generally didn’t. Jeff Burton and Joey Logano were involved in late-race wrecks, for one. Worst of all, I guessed correctly on Jamie McMurray, but Kevin Harvick managed to sneak by him for the victory. Oh well.

I’m going to bet the farm on Kyle Busch this weekend, if only because the pick seems too good to be true. He has eight top-fives in 10 Richmond starts. Yes, that’s right, top-fives. His average finish is a Jimmie Johnson-esque 6.0.

As for a dark horse, I’m going to stick in the Joe Gibbs Racing camp and select Joey Logano. He’s got an average finish of 16.5 in two Cup races at Richmond, with no top-10s, but he doesn’t fall off the lead lap. He’s also got a solid 6.5 average finish at the track in Nationwide, with one pole.

Three more for the road:

Denny Hamlin’s average finish is nearly as good as his Gibbs teammate Busch’s, a solid 8.5. Hamlin also has one Richmond win to go with four top-fives and five top-10s. He’s also won this season on a short track (Martinsville) already. And hey, with the other two Gibbs drivers already on this list, it’d be incomplete without Denny.

Sticking with the Gibbs trend, ex-Gibbs team leader Tony Stewart won three races at Richmond for the team, including his first career victory late in the 1999 season. Stewart has nine top-fives and 15 top-10s at the track, including a runner-up finish in this event last year, and led at least one lap in exactly half of his Richmond starts.

Finally, Stewart’s teammate and employee Ryan Newman has never DNFed at Richmond, although I’m sure I’ve jinxed him by saying that. (Sorry, Ryan.) His only Richmond win came in the fall of 2003; since then, he’s had two top five finishes and eight top-10s in 12 starts. He’s not quite as torrid as he was in his first two seasons at the track, leading at least 24 laps in his first four Richmond starts with the win and two runner-up finishes, but he’s consistent, and he did lead 45 laps in this race last year.

Filed under: Kyle Busch, One and Done NASCAR Fantasy Racing, Richmond International Raceway 

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Fantasy Pick’Em: 2010 Food City 500

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by Chris Leone, Special To NASCAR commentary and driver pictures, 2011 NASCAR schedule, video, Bench Racing With Steve and Charlie

I do weekly Fantasy Pick'Em columns here at OPR, as well as the occasional opinion and analysis piece. I also provide the IZOD IndyCar Series coverage. For more on that, head to my site, OpenWheelAmerica.com. My Twitter handle is @christopherlion.

March 17, 2010 3:20 pm UTC No Comments

With four races in the books, the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series will head to Bristol Motor Speedway for this weekend’s Food City 500. Kurt Busch will attempt to follow up his win at Atlanta two weeks ago by winning this race for the fifth time.

Hope everybody’s all rested up after the off weekend, but it’s high time that we get into the swing of things and kick this season into full gear. This will be the last race that 2009 owner’s points determine the cars locked into the starting field for this season, so expect some backmarkers to try and push towards the front.

My pick for the weekend stays in the Busch family – I’m picking Kyle to win. Easy, I know. But in his last three Bristol starts, he has accumulated an average finish of 1.3 while leading 861 of a possible 1503 laps. That’s over 57% of his past three Bristol starts. Also keep in mind that Rowdy has led a lap in every Bristol race dating back to the spring of 2006, and has led in double digits in five of those eight events.

My dark horse for the week has to be Marcos Ambrose. Still looking for his first top-10 of the season, mired at 28th in points due to DNFs at Daytona and California, Ambrose has finishes of 10th and 3rd at Bristol in Cup cars. Bristol is known as a track of heavy beating and banging, as are the V8 Supercars that Ambrose drove in Australia before coming stateside.

Three more, as per tradition:

Kurt Busch. I’ve discovered over the years that a solid projection of a driver’s skill at any once track is the amount of top-10s he accumulates. If, over a career of decent length, he finishes in the top 10 about half the time, he is usually judged as a star at that given track. That would be Busch at Bristol… oh, and the five career wins there help too.

Dale Earnhardt Jr. has been decent at Bristol since joining Hendrick Motorsports, though it was mostly his work with Dale Earnhardt Inc. that currently gives him the sixth best average finish at Bristol of all active drivers. He’s also been fast for much of the year, with an average start of 8.5. Qualifying up front at such a small track gives drivers an inherent advantage, not only because leaders can catch lapped traffic quickly, but also because of their better pit selection – though that mattered more when Bristol separated its backstretch pits from its frontstretch ones.

Finally, let’s not forget that Kevin Harvick has a strong Bristol record. While he only has one win, the current series points leader has 11 top-10s in 18 career starts. Happy’s also in the best equipment he’s had in years, and there’s no reason to expect things to drop off now.

Filed under: Bristol Motor Speedway, Kyle Busch, One and Done NASCAR Fantasy Racing 

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Fantasy Pick’Em: 2010 Shelby American

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by Chris Leone, Special To NASCAR commentary and driver pictures, 2011 NASCAR schedule, video, Bench Racing With Steve and Charlie

I do weekly Fantasy Pick'Em columns here at OPR, as well as the occasional opinion and analysis piece. I also provide the IZOD IndyCar Series coverage. For more on that, head to my site, OpenWheelAmerica.com. My Twitter handle is @christopherlion.

February 25, 2010 1:55 am UTC 2 Comments

Two races down, 34 to go as the Sprint Cup Series heads to Las Vegas Motor Speedway for this year’s Shelby American. Kyle Busch will attempt to defend his 2009 race win after two consecutive 14th place finishes to start the year.

Jimmie Johnson won three consecutive Vegas races from 2005-07, and won last week in California. He was the best of my five suggestions last week. My lead pick, Matt Kenseth, had a seventh-place run, while my dark horse, David Ragan, was 23rd. Of my other picks, Busch was 14th, and polesitter Jamie McMurray wound up 17th. All in all, it was a much better day than Daytona, and everybody was in the top 25, so the day wasn’t a disaster.

I know it’s an easy pick, but can you fault me for taking Johnson this weekend? It somehow feels okay to me because of his off and on nature at Vegas. In eight starts at the track, he has three wins, but only one other top-10. The past two years he hasn’t finished in the top 20, although he led the most laps in last year’s event before a pit road mistake took him off the lead lap.

It’s hard to come up with a true dark horse for Vegas. The top drivers in the series usually do well, and the lesser teams don’t, according to the record books. But Bobby Labonte may be as close as it gets. He was fifth last year for the Hall of Fame Racing team that no longer runs, and he may be able to pull some similar magic for TRG Motorsports this weekend. He’s got a decent Vegas record, with an average finish of 15.7 in 12 starts, two poles, and five top-10s, with four of those finishes fifth or better.

The other three drivers I’m picking, as per tradition:

Jeff Burton has the best average finish of anybody at Vegas, and even the fact that he’s started every race at the track hasn’t weighed that down. He’s the only driver with an average finish in the single digits (9.8), and he won this race in 1999 and 2000. Save a disaster in 2001, he’s never finished worse than 17th.

Kyle Busch runs at a torrid pace at his home track. His average start of 7.7 is only second to brother Kurt, at least for drivers with multiple Vegas starts, but Rowdy is significantly better than his big brother in average finish, by more than nine places. As I’ve already mentioned, he won this race last year. Since joining Sprint Cup full-time, his worst Vegas finish is 11th. Talk about stepping up for the home crowd.

Finally, Denny Hamlin completes my horrible cop-out of picking the drivers with the top four average finishes at Vegas. I know, I know. But Hamlin is outside the top 20 in points – I feel like I should get some leeway there. He also hasn’t led any laps at Vegas in his career, which would make a victory somewhat of an upset, right? He qualifies mid-pack (average start 23.5), but has an average finish of 11.0, the biggest positive difference for any active driver, meaning if he wins, he’ll have earned it by passing a lot of cars and maintaining the lead.

Filed under: Bobby Labonte, Denny Hamlin, Jeff Burton, jimmie johnson, Kyle Busch, Las Vegas Motor Speedway 

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