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Fantasy Pick’Em: 2010 Irwin Tools Night Race

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by Chris Leone, Special To NASCAR commentary and pictures,2010 NASCAR schedule,NASCAR video, Bench Racing With Steve and Charlie

I do weekly Fantasy Pick'Em columns here at OPR, as well as the occasional opinion and analysis piece. I also provide the IZOD IndyCar Series coverage. For more on that, head to my site, OpenWheelAmerica.com. My Twitter handle is @christopherlion.

August 18, 2010 5:59 pm CDT No Comments

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If NASCAR had to, for some strange reason, pare down the Sprint Cup season to only five races, this weekend’s Irwin Tools Night Race at Bristol Motor Speedway would be almost certain to make the cut.

The rough-and-tumble racing that Bristol is famous for, under the Saturday night lights in the dog days of summer, provides fans with a powder keg that’s ready to explode at any moment – and frequently does, claiming many contenders along the way. Many fans will never forget Dale Earnhardt punting Terry Labonte out of the way to win the 1999 edition, nor the post-race fireworks between Carl Edwards and Kyle Busch a couple years ago.

So who’s got a shot at surviving the event and driving into victory lane this year?

Bristol is one of Busch’s best tracks, and its tendency to produce interesting and exciting on-track action makes it a perfect fit for him. His 10.1 average finish trumps all other active drivers. Besides this spring’s aberration, Busch hadn’t failed to lead in a Bristol race since his 2005 rookie season. He has three wins at the track, and top-two finishes in three of the past four Bristol events. He’s my pick.

My dark horse pick for this weekend is Marcos Ambrose, who had finishes of 10th and 3rd at Bristol last year but a dismal 33rd this past spring. Now that he and JTG Daugherty Racing have both announced plans for 2011 that don’t involve one another, they might just mail it in until the end of the year. On the other hand, they could both step up their game, showing their new partners (Richard Petty Motorsports for Ambrose, Bobby Labonte for JTG) a commitment to a strong year next year.

Three more, because we can:

Greg Biffle, despite having never won at Bristol in a Sprint Cup car, has the second best average finish of active drivers at the track, a solid 11.0. He’s got six top fives and nine top-10s in 15 starts. His Roush Fenway Racing team is also peaking at the right time, finding victory lane and the front of the pack these past few weeks in the wake of owner Jack Roush’s plane crash. Roush cars won this race each year from 2005 to 2008, and there’s no reason to think they can’t again.

Kevin Harvick is the only driver to have a Chase berth right now. Coming off that clinch, his Michigan victory, and a lucrative sponsorship deal with Budweiser for 2011, Happy’s gotta be living up to his nickname right now, and the momentum can certainly carry into Bristol. Harvick can be Superman at Bristol – while the box score for his 2005 victory at the track says he started 13th, he actually started dead last due to unapproved impound work and passed every car in the field for the victory.

Finally, Kurt Busch has the second-best winning percentage at Bristol of active drivers, behind only brother Kyle. And while four of his five wins came in 2004 or earlier, he showed us all a thing or two about how to race at Bristol this spring, leading a race-high 278 laps and finishing third. While Jimmie Johnson may have used that race to get the Bristol monkey off his back, Busch showed the field that he had his old Bristol magic back.

Filed under: Bristol Motor Speedway, One and Done NASCAR Fantasy Racing 

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Fantasy Pick’Em: 2010 Crown Royal 400

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by Chris Leone, Special To NASCAR commentary and pictures,2010 NASCAR schedule,NASCAR video, Bench Racing With Steve and Charlie

I do weekly Fantasy Pick'Em columns here at OPR, as well as the occasional opinion and analysis piece. I also provide the IZOD IndyCar Series coverage. For more on that, head to my site, OpenWheelAmerica.com. My Twitter handle is @christopherlion.

April 29, 2010 12:41 pm CDT No Comments

After last week’s exciting race at Talladega, the Sprint Cup Series moves to the bullring that is the Richmond International Raceway for this weekend’s Crown Royal 400. Kyle Busch won this race last year for his first Richmond victory in Cup, and will look to repeat this weekend.

Talladega certainly set a high bar for the racing at Richmond, with record amounts of leaders and lead changes alike. If you were making fantasy picks, I hope you guessed correctly – I generally didn’t. Jeff Burton and Joey Logano were involved in late-race wrecks, for one. Worst of all, I guessed correctly on Jamie McMurray, but Kevin Harvick managed to sneak by him for the victory. Oh well.

I’m going to bet the farm on Kyle Busch this weekend, if only because the pick seems too good to be true. He has eight top-fives in 10 Richmond starts. Yes, that’s right, top-fives. His average finish is a Jimmie Johnson-esque 6.0.

As for a dark horse, I’m going to stick in the Joe Gibbs Racing camp and select Joey Logano. He’s got an average finish of 16.5 in two Cup races at Richmond, with no top-10s, but he doesn’t fall off the lead lap. He’s also got a solid 6.5 average finish at the track in Nationwide, with one pole.

Three more for the road:

Denny Hamlin’s average finish is nearly as good as his Gibbs teammate Busch’s, a solid 8.5. Hamlin also has one Richmond win to go with four top-fives and five top-10s. He’s also won this season on a short track (Martinsville) already. And hey, with the other two Gibbs drivers already on this list, it’d be incomplete without Denny.

Sticking with the Gibbs trend, ex-Gibbs team leader Tony Stewart won three races at Richmond for the team, including his first career victory late in the 1999 season. Stewart has nine top-fives and 15 top-10s at the track, including a runner-up finish in this event last year, and led at least one lap in exactly half of his Richmond starts.

Finally, Stewart’s teammate and employee Ryan Newman has never DNFed at Richmond, although I’m sure I’ve jinxed him by saying that. (Sorry, Ryan.) His only Richmond win came in the fall of 2003; since then, he’s had two top five finishes and eight top-10s in 12 starts. He’s not quite as torrid as he was in his first two seasons at the track, leading at least 24 laps in his first four Richmond starts with the win and two runner-up finishes, but he’s consistent, and he did lead 45 laps in this race last year.

Filed under: Kyle Busch, One and Done NASCAR Fantasy Racing, Richmond International Raceway 

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Fantasy Pick’Em: 2010 Food City 500

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by Chris Leone, Special To NASCAR commentary and pictures,2010 NASCAR schedule,NASCAR video, Bench Racing With Steve and Charlie

I do weekly Fantasy Pick'Em columns here at OPR, as well as the occasional opinion and analysis piece. I also provide the IZOD IndyCar Series coverage. For more on that, head to my site, OpenWheelAmerica.com. My Twitter handle is @christopherlion.

March 17, 2010 3:20 pm CDT No Comments

With four races in the books, the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series will head to Bristol Motor Speedway for this weekend’s Food City 500. Kurt Busch will attempt to follow up his win at Atlanta two weeks ago by winning this race for the fifth time.

Hope everybody’s all rested up after the off weekend, but it’s high time that we get into the swing of things and kick this season into full gear. This will be the last race that 2009 owner’s points determine the cars locked into the starting field for this season, so expect some backmarkers to try and push towards the front.

My pick for the weekend stays in the Busch family – I’m picking Kyle to win. Easy, I know. But in his last three Bristol starts, he has accumulated an average finish of 1.3 while leading 861 of a possible 1503 laps. That’s over 57% of his past three Bristol starts. Also keep in mind that Rowdy has led a lap in every Bristol race dating back to the spring of 2006, and has led in double digits in five of those eight events.

My dark horse for the week has to be Marcos Ambrose. Still looking for his first top-10 of the season, mired at 28th in points due to DNFs at Daytona and California, Ambrose has finishes of 10th and 3rd at Bristol in Cup cars. Bristol is known as a track of heavy beating and banging, as are the V8 Supercars that Ambrose drove in Australia before coming stateside.

Three more, as per tradition:

Kurt Busch. I’ve discovered over the years that a solid projection of a driver’s skill at any once track is the amount of top-10s he accumulates. If, over a career of decent length, he finishes in the top 10 about half the time, he is usually judged as a star at that given track. That would be Busch at Bristol… oh, and the five career wins there help too.

Dale Earnhardt Jr. has been decent at Bristol since joining Hendrick Motorsports, though it was mostly his work with Dale Earnhardt Inc. that currently gives him the sixth best average finish at Bristol of all active drivers. He’s also been fast for much of the year, with an average start of 8.5. Qualifying up front at such a small track gives drivers an inherent advantage, not only because leaders can catch lapped traffic quickly, but also because of their better pit selection – though that mattered more when Bristol separated its backstretch pits from its frontstretch ones.

Finally, let’s not forget that Kevin Harvick has a strong Bristol record. While he only has one win, the current series points leader has 11 top-10s in 18 career starts. Happy’s also in the best equipment he’s had in years, and there’s no reason to expect things to drop off now.

Filed under: Bristol Motor Speedway, Kyle Busch, One and Done NASCAR Fantasy Racing 

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Fantasy Pick’Em: 2010 Shelby American

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by Chris Leone, Special To NASCAR commentary and pictures,2010 NASCAR schedule,NASCAR video, Bench Racing With Steve and Charlie

I do weekly Fantasy Pick'Em columns here at OPR, as well as the occasional opinion and analysis piece. I also provide the IZOD IndyCar Series coverage. For more on that, head to my site, OpenWheelAmerica.com. My Twitter handle is @christopherlion.

February 25, 2010 1:55 am CST 2 Comments

Two races down, 34 to go as the Sprint Cup Series heads to Las Vegas Motor Speedway for this year’s Shelby American. Kyle Busch will attempt to defend his 2009 race win after two consecutive 14th place finishes to start the year.

Jimmie Johnson won three consecutive Vegas races from 2005-07, and won last week in California. He was the best of my five suggestions last week. My lead pick, Matt Kenseth, had a seventh-place run, while my dark horse, David Ragan, was 23rd. Of my other picks, Busch was 14th, and polesitter Jamie McMurray wound up 17th. All in all, it was a much better day than Daytona, and everybody was in the top 25, so the day wasn’t a disaster.

I know it’s an easy pick, but can you fault me for taking Johnson this weekend? It somehow feels okay to me because of his off and on nature at Vegas. In eight starts at the track, he has three wins, but only one other top-10. The past two years he hasn’t finished in the top 20, although he led the most laps in last year’s event before a pit road mistake took him off the lead lap.

It’s hard to come up with a true dark horse for Vegas. The top drivers in the series usually do well, and the lesser teams don’t, according to the record books. But Bobby Labonte may be as close as it gets. He was fifth last year for the Hall of Fame Racing team that no longer runs, and he may be able to pull some similar magic for TRG Motorsports this weekend. He’s got a decent Vegas record, with an average finish of 15.7 in 12 starts, two poles, and five top-10s, with four of those finishes fifth or better.

The other three drivers I’m picking, as per tradition:

Jeff Burton has the best average finish of anybody at Vegas, and even the fact that he’s started every race at the track hasn’t weighed that down. He’s the only driver with an average finish in the single digits (9.8), and he won this race in 1999 and 2000. Save a disaster in 2001, he’s never finished worse than 17th.

Kyle Busch runs at a torrid pace at his home track. His average start of 7.7 is only second to brother Kurt, at least for drivers with multiple Vegas starts, but Rowdy is significantly better than his big brother in average finish, by more than nine places. As I’ve already mentioned, he won this race last year. Since joining Sprint Cup full-time, his worst Vegas finish is 11th. Talk about stepping up for the home crowd.

Finally, Denny Hamlin completes my horrible cop-out of picking the drivers with the top four average finishes at Vegas. I know, I know. But Hamlin is outside the top 20 in points – I feel like I should get some leeway there. He also hasn’t led any laps at Vegas in his career, which would make a victory somewhat of an upset, right? He qualifies mid-pack (average start 23.5), but has an average finish of 11.0, the biggest positive difference for any active driver, meaning if he wins, he’ll have earned it by passing a lot of cars and maintaining the lead.

Filed under: Bobby Labonte, Denny Hamlin, Jeff Burton, Kyle Busch, Las Vegas Motor Speedway, jimmie johnson 

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Fantasy Pick’Em: 2010 Auto Club 500

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by Chris Leone, Special To NASCAR commentary and pictures,2010 NASCAR schedule,NASCAR video, Bench Racing With Steve and Charlie

I do weekly Fantasy Pick'Em columns here at OPR, as well as the occasional opinion and analysis piece. I also provide the IZOD IndyCar Series coverage. For more on that, head to my site, OpenWheelAmerica.com. My Twitter handle is @christopherlion.

February 18, 2010 12:27 am CST No Comments

One race down, 35 to go, as the Sprint Cup Series heads to Auto Club Speedway for the Auto Club 500. Jamie McMurray will look to repeat Matt Kenseth’s 2009 feat of sweeping the first two races of the season, at a track where he has an average finish of 16.4. California is McMurray’s fifth best track of those on the current schedule.

My pick for Daytona, Tony Stewart, finished 22nd, leaving me with 97 points on the weekend. My dark horse, John Andretti, slapped the wall and ended up 38th. As for my other three suggestions, only Dale Earnhardt Jr. had a strong run, finishing second; Mark Martin faltered to finish 12th and Marcos Ambrose blew a motor after 79 laps to wind up 41st. Not a great start to my year, but that’s Daytona.

If you’re looking for a sure bet at California, don’t just go by who won the 500; since Fontana assumed the second race of the season in 2005, only Kenseth has done the double. Jimmie Johnson finished second at the track in 2006, but in none of the other cases has the Daytona winner finished better than double digits. Daytona winners’ average finish at California over the past five years is an even 12, mostly brought up by those two.

The winners at California usually come from the middle of the pack at Daytona. Ignoring Kenseth’s win last year, the average finish of California winners at Daytona between 2005 and 2008 was 21.5.

Regardless of all that, my pick for California is Matt Kenseth. This one seems like an easy call. Roush Fenway Racing Fords have won the past five spring races at California, as well as 10 of 19 races at the track overall. Kenseth won this race in 2006, 2007, and last year. His average finish of 9.2 is third best among active drivers. A victory could propel Kenseth into the points lead.

As for a dark horse, I’m picking David Ragan. We can call him a dark horse, right? He still hasn’t won a Sprint Cup race, and he had a generally horrible season in 2009. But his seventh place in the fall California race was his second best finish of 2009. He’s also never failed to finish below 17th at the track, which is either a really good omen for Sunday or a hint that he’s overdue for a bad finish.

Per tradition, three other suggestions:

Jimmie Johnson’s an easy pick. You don’t just stumble into a 5.8 average finish in the Sprint Cup Series at any given track – you’ve gotta be good. Johnson’s obviously good, as his four Sprint Cups attest to. He’s even better at California, with no finishes worse than 16th, no DNFs, zero finishes off of the lead lap, and at least 31 laps led in the past six races at his home track. I only pick against him because none of his four wins at the track came in February.

Kyle Busch is a solid, yet interesting, choice if you’re looking to spice things up. He’s not as easy of a pick as the Roush or Hendrick drivers, but he did have a streak of eight California top-10s before last fall’s 24th-place finish, and not even Jimmie Johnson (six and counting) can say that.

I’m going to give Jamie McMurray the benefit of the doubt and my final pick. The past four years have been pretty abysmal for the Daytona 500 winner, especially at California, where a sixth place finish in his second race with Roush was the lone high point; since then, he’s never been better than 16th at the track. But McMurray was never worse than 15th when he drove for Chip Ganassi, his current owner, with an average finish of 7.2 in five starts between 2003 and 2005.

Filed under: Auto Club Speedway, David Ragan, Jamie McMurray, Kyle Busch, Matt Kenseth, One and Done NASCAR Fantasy Racing, jimmie johnson 

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Kyle Busch Motorsports: Huge Risk, Huge Reward?

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by Chris Leone, Special To NASCAR commentary and pictures,2010 NASCAR schedule,NASCAR video, Bench Racing With Steve and Charlie

I do weekly Fantasy Pick'Em columns here at OPR, as well as the occasional opinion and analysis piece. I also provide the IZOD IndyCar Series coverage. For more on that, head to my site, OpenWheelAmerica.com. My Twitter handle is @christopherlion.

December 13, 2009 11:16 am CST No Comments

On Friday, Kyle Busch finally announced what those of us in the know had been expecting for the past few weeks – that he would purchase the Camping World Truck Series equipment of Xpress Motorsports to form his own team, Kyle Busch Motorsports.

We weren’t shocked when he announced that Miccosukee Gaming, his sponsor at Billy Ballew Motorsports for the past couple of years, would make the transition with him, or that Brian Ickler, his protégé, would run his truck in non-companion events. We already knew that Rick Ren had left 2009 champion Ron Hornaday’s team to manage Rowdy’s operation in the Mooresville shop.

What we didn’t know, however, was that Tayler Malsam, last of Randy Moss Motorsports, would join the new team in a No. 56 truck sponsored by ActivWater. We also didn’t know that the presumptive deal for Johnny Benson, the series’ 2008 champion, had not yet been signed.

But whether Benson gets a deal or not – and seeing as he’s been the only constant name in the rumor mill for KBM, and he’s guaranteed to make races based on his champion’s provisional, he probably will – Kyle Busch has already assembled a team capable of winning races and championships. The question is, however, whether or not the team will be able to realize that potential.

The only other driver to attempt to run his own team this early in his career was Kevin Harvick, and that operation started in earnest compared to Busch’s plans for three trucks. Harvick started his team with a limited schedule in 2002, where he and Rick Carelli combined for one win and five top-10s in six starts. He utilized a similar plan in 2003, with four drivers sharing the limited-schedule truck.

It wasn’t until 2004 that Harvick began running a full-time truck, as Matt Crafton took the reins of the No. 6 Goodwrench Chevrolet. Despite finishing fifth in points, he was not retained for the following year. Harvick also entered Tony Stewart in two Busch Series races that year, in preparation for a full-time car for Stewart and Tony Raines in 2005.

Slowly but surely, Harvick built his team, adding Hornaday in 2005 after he was dropped from the Busch car of Richard Childress Racing, Harvick’s Cup team. Hornaday has never finished worse than seventh in Truck points in a KHI vehicle, winning championships in 2007 and 2009. In 2006, KHI ran two full-time Busch cars as its owner won the series title, although he mostly drove RCR cars that year. Harvick has run more Nationwide races in his own cars every year, winning in his own equipment for the first time in 2009 and potentially running for the championship in 2010.

Of course, that’s not to say that KHI hasn’t had its stumbles. The Burney Lamar experiment did not work well in 2006, as he only had three top-10s in 29 Busch starts. Cale Gale did little to distinguish himself in KHI cars in 2007 and 2008, and no longer drives for the team. Expanding to two trucks in 2008 was unsuccessful too, as former champion Jack Sprague failed to win a race and only had nine top-10s in 20 starts, lagging far behind Hornaday’s six wins and 18 top-10s that year.

For the most part, however, Harvick’s team has been a success, and a big part of it is because he started off slowly, rarely going in over his head with his team. They raced when they had the proper funding and infrastructure to do so, and it paid off by turning KHI into the premier non-Cup team in the Nationwide and Truck series. Busch, however, is taking the opposite philosophy, hitting hard and early with a multi-truck team.

An example of which Busch should be wary is Michael Waltrip Racing, which went into Cup way beyond its capabilities in 2007. The team entered three cars that year as the flagship team in Toyota’s entry into Cup racing. Waltrip himself spent the first third of the season 27 points behind the continent of Africa, having accrued 73 points in Daytona, a 100-point penalty for loading his Toyota with jet fuel, and a streak of a dozen DNQs afterwards. Young gun David Reutimann and former champion Dale Jarrett weren’t much better. Busch, Malsam, and Benson could easily correspond to Waltrip, Reutimann, and Jarrett if things start going wrong early.

What Busch does have going for him, however, is that Toyota has never been as abysmal in the Truck series as it was in its first year of Cup racing. Unlike Waltrip, who used Harvick’s philosophy of building everything from scratch (albeit on a much grander scale), Busch is inheriting an existing team and infrastructure, one which has won races and a championship in the past, and is entering a much less competitive series. Also unlike Waltrip, Busch has been no slouch in the series he’s entering, having won plenty of Truck races over the past few years.

Regardless of how the 2010 season actually plays out for Kyle Busch Motorsports, the Camping World Truck Series will be far more interesting for its inception. We could see one of the most successful debut years in motorsports history, on par with Brawn GP in F1 in 2009, with the new team doing everything right and finding great success. Of course, we could also see a catastrophic beginning akin to Waltrip’s first year as a Cup series owner, with the team suffering a handful of setbacks, missing numerous races, and generally disappointing all year.

I’m predicting something close to the former, but unlike the Cup series, it’s a little harder to predict what happens in trucks.

Filed under: Kyle Busch 

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