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Fantasy Pick’Em: 2010 Tums Fast Relief 500

by Chris Leone, Special To NASCAR commentary and driver pictures, 2011 NASCAR schedule, video, Bench Racing With Steve and Charlie

I do weekly Fantasy Pick'Em columns here at OPR, as well as the occasional opinion and analysis piece. I also provide the IZOD IndyCar Series coverage. For more on that, head to my site, OpenWheelAmerica.com. My Twitter handle is @christopherlion.

October 21, 2010 12:34 pm CDT No Comments

Martinsville Speedway is the site of this weekend’s Sprint Cup Series battle. The Tums Fast Relief 500 will open the second half of the Chase for the Sprint Cup, as three drivers – Jimmie Johnson, Denny Hamlin, and Kevin Harvick – remain the only viable candidates for the championship right now.

We’re due for a great battle this weekend, as Johnson and Hamlin are the two best active drivers at Martinsville. They’ve split the last eight races at the track among them, with Johnson holding a five to three advantage but Hamlin taking the last two.

But of course, if you’ve been reading, I’m not allowed to make either of them my lead pick this weekend. I took Hamlin at Loudon (second place finish) and Johnson last week at Charlotte (a third place run). So who else can I rely on this weekend?

Thank heaven there’s a third pick that’s just as viable. Jeff Gordon was the original Martinsville superstar, with seven wins and 29 top-10s in 35 career starts there thus far. His average finish is an impeccable 6.7. He’s led at least 36 laps in his past eight Martinsville starts, and has led at least one circuit in 27 of those events. That’s about as reliable as it gets.

As for a dark horse, I’m looking at Ryan Newman. Newman was never that strong a Martinsville driver during his years at Penske Racing, but he’s never finished worse than seventh at the track with Stewart-Haas Racing. Last year, he led 23 laps in this race from the pole. Earlier this year, he ran a respectable fourth.

Three more, even though two are obvious:

Johnson is basically an improved version of his mentor. He’s got 16 top-10s in 17 starts to go along with those five wins. In eight of the last nine races at the track, he’s led 42 laps or more, the lone exception coming this spring.

Hamlin’s a Virginia native that always has the motivation to do well in his home state. In 10 races, he has three wins, seven top five runs, and nine top-10s. In each of the past three Martinsville events, he’s led at least 172 laps. This is Hamlin’s best chance to reclaim the Chase points lead – even though it’s also his rival’s best track, Hamlin outscored Johnson by 57 points last time at Martinsville. The same occurrence this time would give him the lead into next week’s unpredictable race at Talladega.

Finally, think about picking up Kasey Kahne for this weekend. No, he’s not exactly a Martinsville superstar, and never has been. But now that he’s free from Richard Petty Motorsports, don’t be surprised if Red Bull’s newest driver pulls something out to try and stick it to his former team.

Filed under: Martinsville Speedway, One and Done NASCAR Fantasy Racing

Tagged with: Denny Hamlin, Jeff Gordon, jimmie johnson, Kasey Kahne, Martinsville Speedway, One and Done NASCAR Fantasy Racing, Ryan Newman, Tums Fast Relief 500

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Fantasy Pick’Em: 2010 Bank of America 500

by Chris Leone, Special To NASCAR commentary and driver pictures, 2011 NASCAR schedule, video, Bench Racing With Steve and Charlie

October 13, 2010 1:43 pm CDT No Comments

Jimmie Johnson #48 on track Fontana

The Sprint Cup Series heads home this weekend, taking the traveling show to the Charlotte Motor Speedway for the Bank of America 500. Held annually since 1960, the list of former race winners reads like a who’s who of the sport, ranging from Weatherly, Lorenzen, and Johnson in its early stages to Gordon, Martin, and another Johnson in recent years.

Last week’s California event was a debacle for a handful of Chasers, including the brothers Busch and the entire Roush Fenway Racing brigade. Of course, three of my five fantasy picks from last week were included in that group of six people, and Jamie McMurray was no fantasy stud either. Way to break up my run, folks - for my lead picks, the ones that really count, I had Denny Hamlin (2nd) at Loudon, Carl Edwards (5th) at Dover, and Greg Biffle (1st) at Kansas. Were I a Chase driver, I’d have gone from up 17 points on Johnson to 90 points out of the lead.

Then again, I purposely avoided Jimmie Johnson as a fantasy pick last week. I figured that such a prediction would be too easy to make. In a way, I was right. While Johnson didn’t win, nobody gained any substantial ground on him, and many of the stronger Chase competitors lost anywhere from 20 to 100 points on him.

Since I’ve been trying to pick each Chase driver once during the Chase, I’m going to pick Johnson this weekend. No, it’s not JUST because I’m disappointed with last week’s failures, it’s because I had this budgeted out before the season. While you can pick Johnson at just about any track and get away with it, his numbers are absurd compared to the competition at Charlotte. Six wins in 18 starts with 13 top-10s is huge. The only reason his average finish flutters into the double digits is because of a few DNFs, but hey, we’ve all been there.

As for a dark horse, although I struggle to label him as such because his limited Charlotte stats have a stronger average than Johnson’s, Joey Logano is a solid pick. He has an average finish of 9.0 in three Charlotte starts, with a top five finish in this race last year. Although he hasn’t won at the track in Sprint Cup or Nationwide, he’s never finished outside of the top 15 in a race in either. He’ll score a lot of points either way.

Three more, as a part of fantasy racing’s biggest safety net:

I’m going to go with three-time Charlotte winner Kasey Kahne in this slot for two weekends in a row. Perhaps I’m indebted to Kahne for being the only driver I picked to post a finish worth anything last week at California, but his Charlotte record speaks for itself. In fact, his only Charlotte DNF came in a race he dominated, the fall event in 2004. In seven of his 13 Charlotte starts he’s led laps in the double digits, and he’s led more than 100 laps in a Charlotte event three times.

Tony Stewart is on quite the high after the way the past week or so has went. First, he wins the California event and propels himself back into Chase contention; then, he confirms the long-whispered rumor that Mobil 1 will join Stewart-Haas Racing next year to complete the sponsorship of Stewart’s own car. Nevermind a 13.4 average finish and eight consecutive top-20s at Charlotte - he’s got the momentum on his side, and that can only help.

Finally, coming from left field, David Reutimann is an interesting Charlotte pick. Yes, his Coca-Cola 600 win last year was a product of a clever pit strategy during a rainy spell, but his finishes at the track have improved greatly since that confidence builder. His past two races there have seen finishes of 15th and fifth, and he managed to lead laps, if only briefly, during the 600 this time around.

Photo credit: Jordan Tabak, OnPitRow.com

Filed under: Lowes Motor Speedway, One and Done NASCAR Fantasy Racing

Tagged with: Bank of America 500, Charlotte Motor Speedway, David Reutimann, jimmie johnson, Joey Logano, Kasey Kahne, One and Done NASCAR Fantasy Racing, Tony Stewart

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Fantasy Pick’Em: 2010 Pepsi Max 400

by Chris Leone, Special To NASCAR commentary and driver pictures, 2011 NASCAR schedule, video, Bench Racing With Steve and Charlie

October 7, 2010 10:20 am CDT No Comments

Jimmie Johnson Chad Knause victory lane Dover

The Chase for the Sprint Cup continues this weekend at the Auto Club Speedway, as Sprint Cup Series teams prepare for the Pepsi Max 400.

It’s the fourth race of the Chase, and by this the point the championship contenders are beginning to separate themselves from the pretenders.

Most of the Chasers are still within 100 points of new leader Jimmie Johnson, but most will surely find it hard to top the four-time defending champion. Clint Bowyer, after losing his appeal on a car that failed to meet specifications after New Hampshire, has conceded the title fight, but the other 10 are still looking to do the impossible.

California thus marks a pivotal race in the Chase, as Cup drivers now look to stay close to Johnson now that he may have taken the points lead for good. Johnson aside, who looks good at California?

Kyle Busch isn’t the best active driver at California, with an average finish of 10.8. But eight top-10s in 12 starts and a victory show that he can get the job done. After battles with David Reutimann sabotaged his Kansas finish by knocking the car out of whack, he’ll have no choice but to do just that. That extra motivation is why he’s my pick this week.

As for a dark horse, look to Richard Petty Motorsports’ soon-to-be-departing lead driver Kasey Kahne. In 13 California starts, Kahne’s got a win and seven top-10s at the track. It’s only been bad luck at the track as of late that keeps him from having a better record.

Three more – again, staying away from Johnson, if only for a week:

Matt Kenseth began to inject a little life into his Chase hopes with a top-10 finish at Kansas. Even though he would be 12th in the Chase if not for the Bowyer penalty, Kenseth should be a threat at California – he’s finished in the top 10 there in 12 of 17 attempts. It’s a Roush Fenway thing – the team employs (or has employed) five of the 10 best active drivers at the track.

Kurt Busch has seen a little less success at California than his brother, with only eight top-10s in 16 starts at the track. But he, too, has visited victory lane at the track, albeit back in 2003. Still, his past six California starts have resulted in five finishes of 13th or better.

As for a left-field pick, consider Jamie McMurray and his 16.4 average finish at the track. McMurray was my dark horse pick at the track earlier this season. He struggled at the track with Roush, ironically, but has been considerably better at the track while driving for Chip Ganassi. In his first go-round with the team, between 2003 and 2005, his average finish was 7.2; earlier this year, he qualified on pole.

Let’s admit something, though, before we wrap up: Johnson is the ultimate pick here, as he is at about half the Chase tracks. From his 5.5 average finish and five wins, including four in his past six starts, you would think that his home track would also be his best. It’s actually not – it’s only his third best. Talk about a testament to how good this guy is.

Photo credit: Glenn Bure, OnPitRow.com

Filed under: Auto Club Speedway, One and Done NASCAR Fantasy Racing

Tagged with: Auto Club Speedway, Jamie McMurray, jimmie johnson, Kasey Kahne, Kurt Busch, Kyle Busch, Matt Kenseth, One and Done NASCAR Fantasy Racing, Pepsi Max 400

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Fantasy Pick’Em: 2010 Gillette Fusion ProGlide 500

by Chris Leone, Special To NASCAR commentary and driver pictures, 2011 NASCAR schedule, video, Bench Racing With Steve and Charlie

June 3, 2010 2:07 pm CDT No Comments

This weekend marks one of change in the Sprint Cup Series; not only does the Gillette Fusion ProGlide 500 begin the second half of the series’ regular season and usher in the start of TNT’s summer series, it is also the first time that Pocono, not Dover, will host the race immediately after the Coca-Cola 600.

Those of you who have read this column for a long time are surely aware that its existence has always been facilitated by the OnPitRow.com One and Done Fantasy Racing game. Well, folks, this weekend is one of renewal for that game too. Pocono starts the second of three seasons-within-a-season for One and Done, and if you pick well over the next 13 races, you could have some fantastic prizes coming your way. The game is simple – pick a different driver each week for the next 13 weeks, and see how well you do.

As usual, here are the five drivers who are your best fantasy bets for this weekend’s race:

My personal number one pick is Denny Hamlin, because there is almost no logical, feasible reason not to pick him if the rules of your game allow it. Denny’s been on fire as of late on the Sprint Cup circuit, having completed every lap since Texas and accruing two wins and four top-5s in that span. Hamlin also has three wins at Pocono in eight starts, putting him behind only Jeff Gordon for most of full-time drivers, and far and away giving him the best winning percentage.

My dark horse for the weekend is Kasey Kahne. Despite languishing in 21st in points this season, the past two years have been fairly successful for Kahne at Pocono, with a win and three top-10s. A handful of poor Pocono showings earlier in his career skew his average finish, but it’s clear that Kahne has made huge strides at the track; in the last Pocono race, the only driver to top him in driver ratings was Hamlin, widely recognized as the king of Pocono.

Three more for the long and winding road:

Hey, did you know that Mark Martin guy has six runner-up finishes and 32 top-10s in 46 Pocono starts, but has never won a race? Those six bridesmaid spots tie Bobby Allison at Martinsville for most runner-up placings at a track with zero wins. You can bet that’s a goose egg the No. 5 team will be striving to eradicate come Sunday.

Tony Stewart has a pretty solid history at Pocono, with two wins and 16 top-10s in 22 starts. Last year’s victory in this race was his first as an owner-driver. Now 16th in points, he has to be hungry to climb into the Chase, and a characteristically strong Pocono run will surely help his cause.

Finally, if you want a real shot in the dark, Kevin Harvick has managed an average finish of 15.7 at Pocono in 18 starts despite only two top-5s, four top-10s, and never leading a single lap. But Happy’s been strong all year, and it may be time for him to surprise. Want to potentially look like the smartest player in your game? Take a gamble on Harvick and see what happens.

Filed under: Denny Hamlin, Kasey Kahne, Kevin Harvick, Mark Martin, One and Done NASCAR Fantasy Racing, Pocono Raceway, Tony Stewart

Tagged with: Denny Hamlin, Gillette Fusion ProGlide 500, Kasey Kahne, Kevin Harvick, Mark Martin, One and Done NASCAR Fantasy Racing, Pocono Raceway, Tony Stewart

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Fantasy Pick’Em: 2010 Coca-Cola 600

by Chris Leone, Special To NASCAR commentary and driver pictures, 2011 NASCAR schedule, video, Bench Racing With Steve and Charlie

May 27, 2010 11:27 am CDT No Comments

Kurt Busch in the Miller Lite Dodge at TMS practice

The weekend immediately following the Sprint All-Star Race, the Coca-Cola 600 is one of the crown jewels of NASCAR’s Sprint Cup Series. Designed to compete with the Indianapolis 500 on Memorial Day weekend, it joins the Daytona 500, Southern 500, and Brickyard 400 as one of the series’ most important and prestigious races.

Last year’s rain-shortened event was taken on a dreary Monday by David Reutimann. He added his name to a long list of first-time winners at the track, including all-time greats David Pearson and Jeff Gordon, by opting not to pit during the final caution of the event while many other cars did. The 600 often produces a surprise winner, as many of the big races do, but to suggest it happens every time would be to ignore many drivers who have won it during the peak of their careers, from Gordon to Dale Earnhardt to Jimmie Johnson.

So I’m going to go out on a limb (except not at all) and make Johnson my lead pick. Without the Lowe’s sponsorship, Johnson doesn’t have that extra sort of motivation to dominate at the track, but I see no reason why he can’t keep up a torrid pace of 6 wins and 13 top-10s in 17 starts. The only race in which he has failed to lead a lap was his track debut. His average finish of 8.6 is by far the best of drivers with at least five starts at the track. This is a gimme if you can take it.

Kurt Busch qualifies as a bit of a dark horse at Charlotte, despite the fact that he won last weekend’s All-Star Race. Busch only has three top-5s and a dismal 20.9 average finish in 19 career points-paying starts. If he can win the 600, however, he’d be the seventh driver in 25 years of Charlotte-based all-star events that a driver won both races; Kasey Kahne was the last to do it in 2008.

Some other drivers of merit in the longest race of the NASCAR season:

Joey Logano has only four starts at Charlotte, counting his All-Star travails, but has never disappointed. He converted last year’s Fan Vote into an eighth place run, and finished ninth and fifth in the two races that counted last year. This year, he wound up third in the all-star event. Remember that Jeff Gordon also won the 600 in his sophomore year of NASCAR competition – we could very well see shades of the last great young driver on Sunday night.

Kasey Kahne has also been on a torrid pace at Charlotte over the past two years. In four points-paying starts, he has three podium finishes and a worst placing of seventh. His 11.6 career Charlotte average finish is one of the best on the circuit, and it appears that his worst years at the track are long behind him. Kahne has scored the most points in the last three Charlotte races, and in every amount up through the last nine. usually goes big or goes home – he has three wins and five top-5s, but four finishes of 23rd or worse.

Finally, Jeff Burton has been a highly consistent driver at Charlotte as of late. For his career, he has 32 starts with three wins and 15 top-10s, as well as a win in the 2002 all-star shootout. Burton has scored the third most points at Charlotte over the past five years, second only to Johnson and Kahne; these ten races have been buoyed by a win in October 2008, five top-10s, and only three finishes outside the top 20.

Filed under: Jeff Burton, Joey Logano, Kasey Kahne, Kurt Busch, Lowes Motor Speedway, One and Done NASCAR Fantasy Racing, jimmie johnson

Tagged with: Charlotte Motor Speedway, Coca Cola 600, Jeff Burton, jimmie johnson, Joey Logano, Kasey Kahne, Kurt Busch, One and Done NASCAR Fantasy Racing

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Fantasy Pick’Em: 2010 Samsung Mobile 500

by Chris Leone, Special To NASCAR commentary and driver pictures, 2011 NASCAR schedule, video, Bench Racing With Steve and Charlie

April 15, 2010 3:13 pm CDT No Comments

This weekend’s Samsung Mobile 500 at Texas Motor Speedway will be the eighth race of this year’s Sprint Cup Series season. Last year, Jeff Gordon scored his lone win of the season in this race, leading a race-high 105 laps, including the last 28.

Before anything else, though, I’d like to comment on what a whirlwind of a week this has been as far as the silly season goes. Kasey Kahne to Hendrick in 2012, in a Jamie McMurray-esque situation? Two of the lower-tier teams changing drivers? Kelly Bires and John Wes Townley out of rides? Silly season keeps happening earlier and earlier every year, and I think NASCAR needs to look into implementing some restrictions on signings like Kahne’s. I understand that the drivers and teams are independent contractors, but how would Colts fans feel if Peyton Manning signed with the Titans for the 2012 season before even completing this year or the next?

Without further ado, and before I start ranting uncontrollably about the Kahne signing, let’s just go to the fantasy picks and call it a day.

My headlining pick for the weekend is Tony Stewart. Of active drivers, Smoke is the fourth-best at Texas, with one win and 10 top-10s in 16 starts. The win came in the fall of 2006, when he led 278 of the race’s 339 laps. Smoke also has to be buoyed by teammate Ryan Newman’s win last weekend at Phoenix, a great step towards asserting that Stewart-Haas Racing won’t fall victim to a sophomore slump in 2010.

As for a dark horse, I’m going to pick Kahne. Yes, he has been very mediocre at Texas, with only one win and two top-10s in 11 starts, but something tells me that his Richard Petty Motorsports team is going to go all out this weekend and in the next few weeks to try and prove that they can run up front, not only for Kahne’s potential replacements, but maybe even to keep him in the seat for 2011.

Okay, we’ve got three more picks to go. Is it fair enough for me to invoke Texas hold ‘em and call this the fantasy “flop”? (Heaven knows a lot of my picks tend to do so on raceday.)

The top active driver statistically at Texas is Matt Kenseth, with an average finish of 9.3. No other driver has a single-digit average finish at Texas, not even the great Jimmie Johnson. Kenseth has not won at Texas since 2002, but has led at least one lap in eight of the last ten Texas races. Over that span, his worst finish is 18th, with six top fives (including three runner-up finishes) and lead-lap finishes in all ten starts.

Kurt Busch is somewhat of a risky pick, but he did win the last time the Cup cars went to Texas. Granted, he only has one Texas DNF, but he hasn’t been as consistently up front at the track throughout his career as guys like Kenseth and Johnson. In fact, his only other top five finish came in his Texas debut, in the spring of 2001, when he finished fourth.

Finally, Jeff Burton has only recently asserted himself as a Texas contender, but he’s almost always been towards the front since joining Richard Childress Racing. He only led one lap in the one Texas race he won, but since 2006 he’s finished in the top 10 six out of eight times.

Filed under: One and Done NASCAR Fantasy Racing, Texas Motor Speedway

Tagged with: Jeff Burton, Kasey Kahne, Kurt Busch, Matt Kenseth, One and Done NASCAR Fantasy Racing, Texas Motor Speedway, Tony Stewart

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