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Fantasy Pick’Em: 2010 Emory Healthcare 500 (Redux)

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by Chris Leone, Special To NASCAR commentary and pictures,2010 NASCAR schedule,NASCAR video, Bench Racing With Steve and Charlie

I do weekly Fantasy Pick'Em columns here at OPR, as well as the occasional opinion and analysis piece. I also provide the IZOD IndyCar Series coverage. For more on that, head to my site, OpenWheelAmerica.com. My Twitter handle is @christopherlion.

September 1, 2010 10:38 pm CDT No Comments

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So last week, I screwed up.

I figured, “Hey, with college about to start and all, maybe I should write my Atlanta fantasy post right now, save it for a week, and then just take ten minutes to post it when people actually need it.” Seemed like a good idea at the time, right?

Well, it was, until I forgot what week of the year it was (blame it on me being awake at four in the morning) and posted it anyway. Oops. If you’re looking for this week’s fantasy picks, click here; otherwise, this column is going to be a general fantasy overview for the rest of the year.

We’re now two-thirds of the way through this Sprint Cup season, with only two regular-season races and the Chase for the Sprint Cup to go. The remaining schedule is dominated by four cookie-cutters (Atlanta, Kansas, Charlotte, Texas), but contains just about every type of track on the schedule besides a road course.

Of course, this is about the time where Jimmie Johnson kicks into gear. His charges to the championship have been well documented, as no driver has ever benefitted more from the Chase. Currently ninth in points and about a three-race deficit behind Kevin Harvick, Johnson’s top four tracks as judged by average finish – Phoenix, Martinsville, Fontana, and Loudon – all appear on the remaining schedule. Of the remaining tracks at which Sprint Cup will run this year, Johnson only has mediocre records at Richmond (which isn’t in the Chase anyway) and Talladega (which is a crapshoot anyway).

As for Harvick, his team has been the class of the field all year, but most of his best tracks are behind him on the schedule. Homestead is statistically his best track, but five of his six worst active tracks – Dover, Fontana, Martinsville, Atlanta, and Charlotte – come up in the following twelve weeks of racing.

But this year, things have been looking up for Happy on those tracks, and he may not have a reason to worry. Fontana yielded a second place finish, he ran a strong ninth at Atlanta, led 57 laps from the pole at Martinsville, placed seventh at Dover, and came home a respectable 11th at Charlotte. While those types of races alone won’t knock the defending champion off his pedestal, they will more than suffice for a driver at some of his worst tracks.

In effect, this brings us down to the question of present versus past. Which key factor – history or momentum – should be influencing your fantasy picks from here on out? Should you be focusing on only one over the other, and if so, which?

Here’s the thing: we all know that the 48 team has shown signs of, well, humanity this year. Add to that the intense pressure stemming from the fact that nobody has won five consecutive championships at NASCAR’s highest level, and you may be able to say that the goose is cooked on the drive for five.

Meanwhile, Harvick’s team has done everything right for the majority of the year, won a respectable one in eight races, and has even performed at the tracks on which he’s struggled in the past. (See above.)

In the end, it all depends on which fantasy game you’re playing, and who’s available to you on any given week. (Duh. A little more elaboration, please?)

For single driver, pick-‘em-once-and-they’re-done games like One and Done at OnPitRow.com, your best bet is undoubtedly to go for history. A driver like Harvick is probably not the best choice for a track at which he struggles, unless you’re picking last-minute and he qualifies really well. Johnson becomes your golden ticket to victory lane, so use him wisely. As for the rest, try and limit your picks to Chase drivers – they’re the only ones who really matter in the final ten events.

For games that give you a fleet of drivers every week, make sure to always pick one of the top five active drivers at any given track. (This is one of my Fantasy Pick’Em rules of thumb.) But in these games, you have a greater ability to go for momentum drivers. Sure, it can crash and burn on you if they perform as history suggested they would, but getting a little lucky with an interesting, out of left field pick could be the difference between first and second in your fantasy racing league.

Photo Credit: Glenn Bure, OnPitRow.com

Filed under: Kevin Harvick, One and Done NASCAR Fantasy Racing, jimmie johnson 

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Fantasy Pick’Em: 2010 Sunoco Red Cross Pennsylvania 500

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by Chris Leone, Special To NASCAR commentary and pictures,2010 NASCAR schedule,NASCAR video, Bench Racing With Steve and Charlie

I do weekly Fantasy Pick'Em columns here at OPR, as well as the occasional opinion and analysis piece. I also provide the IZOD IndyCar Series coverage. For more on that, head to my site, OpenWheelAmerica.com. My Twitter handle is @christopherlion.

July 29, 2010 4:11 pm CDT No Comments

The Sprint Cup Series returns to the tricky triangle of Pocono Raceway this week for the Sunoco Red Cross Pennsylvania 500. One of the most grueling races on the schedule, Pocono provides one of the greatest tests of endurance for any race driver two weekends every year.

Pocono provided us with plenty of drama in its first race this year, which saw Joey Logano make some disparaging remarks about the Harvick family and Kasey Kahne nearly exit the speedway completely in his car. It’ll be hard to top that kind of intensity this weekend, but the boys will sure try.

So, who looks good this weekend at Pocono?

Obviously, Denny Hamlin is the top pick, and is certainly my choice. Hamlin’s successes at Pocono are widely known, but here they are anyway: four wins, seven top-10s, and an average finish of 8.6 in nine career starts, tops of all active drivers. Sounds like a pretty obvious pick to me, based on his history.

My dark horse for the weekend is Jamie McMurray. Coming off a huge win in last weekend’s Brickyard 400, McMurray sports a new paint scheme this weekend, with Axe Twist coming on board to sponsor. McMurray’s never been a great Pocono driver, with an average finish of 21.7 and only three top-10s in 15 starts, but that’s not to say that a team that has proven its ability to win big races on big tracks can’t find a little magic this weekend.

Three more, just because:

Jimmie Johnson is the second best active Pocono driver in terms of average finish, with a astout 9.5. Johnson led laps in four of the past five Pocono races, for an average finish of 6.8 over that span. His only two Pocono wins came in a 2004 sweep of the track, but you can bet that a middling Indy finish will only add fuel to the fire for him to get back to victory lane.

Tony Stewart came up with a solid top five at Indy last week, something he’s done at Pocono in eight out of 23 attempts. Stewart’s first points-paying win as an owner-driver came at the track last year, and since that race he’s also had finishes of tenth and third. He says he’s been looking for a little more out of his team, and Pocono seems to be the place to find it: no Stewart-Haas car has ever finished outside the top 15.

Finally, Kevin Harvick has improved over the years at Pocono, going from run-of-the-mill midpack finishes earlier in his career to solid top-10s and top-15s in more recent years. His two finishes of fourth in the past four Pocono races, including one earlier this year, are his career bests; he’ll look to improve on them this weekend.

Filed under: One and Done NASCAR Fantasy Racing, Pocono Raceway 

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Fantasy Pick’Em: 2010 Brickyard 400

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by Chris Leone, Special To NASCAR commentary and pictures,2010 NASCAR schedule,NASCAR video, Bench Racing With Steve and Charlie

I do weekly Fantasy Pick'Em columns here at OPR, as well as the occasional opinion and analysis piece. I also provide the IZOD IndyCar Series coverage. For more on that, head to my site, OpenWheelAmerica.com. My Twitter handle is @christopherlion.

July 21, 2010 5:30 pm CDT No Comments

The Brickyard 400 is one of the crown jewels of the Sprint Cup Series, an event secondary in prestige only to longer-established events like the Daytona 500. The Indianapolis Motor Speedway, the original United States “speedway,” plays host to the event.

The cathedral of speed’s second major event every year, after the prestigious Indianapolis 500, has had its ups and downs. In 2008, bad wear patterns on Goodyear tires limited the race to a series of 10-lap sprints. And last year, Juan Montoya dominated the race, only to have a pit road speeding penalty wreck his day and hand the race to Jimmie Johnson. But regardless of any trials and tribulations with the race surface (and every major track has them now and again), the event is still one of the most important ones on the schedule, and teams will put as much effort (if not more) into winning this race as they would into almost any other event on the schedule.

So who looks good at the Brickyard? Here’s a hint – most of them grew up with Indy dreams.

Tony Stewart, my pick for the weekend, is at the forefront of this crowd. The 1997 champion of the IZOD IndyCar Series may never have won an Indianapolis 500, but twice he’s claimed the checkers at the stock car event, in 2005 and 2007. His average finish of 8.5 is best of any active driver, and he’s led laps in six of the 11 stock car races he’s run at the Brickyard.

As for a dark horse, look to A.J. Allmendinger, who will make his 100th career Sprint Cup start at Indy. The former Champ Car star had a 10th place finish in his first Brickyard 400 two years ago. The ‘Dinger and his team will look to carry on their momentum from the past eight races, where they have accumulated seven top-15 finishes.

Three more:

Jeff Gordon is the only driver to do in a stock car what A.J. Foyt, Al Unser, and Rick Mears did in open-wheel cars – win four times at Indianapolis. Gordon’s last win may have come all the way back in 2004, but that hasn’t stopped him from finishing well. In 16 career Brickyard starts, he’s finished in the top 10 an astounding 13 times. His average finish of 8.6 is second to only Stewart.

Jimmie Johnson has three Brickyard wins, each coming over the past four years, but he’s also got three DNFs at the track, a result of some pretty sour luck in the past. He blew an engine halfway through the 2004 event, and crashed in 2005 and 2007. It’s this sort of historical bad luck that can come back to bite at any time, and has also brought his average finish down to a mediocre 17.9.

Finally, while he might qualify as a dark horse at any other track, Juan Montoya is no stranger to Indianapolis. In 2000, as a CART ringer coming to show up the Indy Racing League in that year’s Indy 500, Montoya was warned to respect the track. Montoya scoffed, contended that all four corners were the same (unlike the tracks on which he honed his skills), and dominated the race. In his first stock car event at the track, in 2007, he finished a strong second; last year he should have won. If anybody has both the talent and the stones to pull off a surprise victory this weekend, it’s Montoya.

Filed under: Indianapolis Motor Speedway, One and Done NASCAR Fantasy Racing 

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Fantasy Pick’Em: 2010 LifeLock.com 400

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by Chris Leone, Special To NASCAR commentary and pictures,2010 NASCAR schedule,NASCAR video, Bench Racing With Steve and Charlie

I do weekly Fantasy Pick'Em columns here at OPR, as well as the occasional opinion and analysis piece. I also provide the IZOD IndyCar Series coverage. For more on that, head to my site, OpenWheelAmerica.com. My Twitter handle is @christopherlion.

July 8, 2010 11:24 am CDT No Comments

Chicagoland Speedway provides this weekend’s setting for the Sprint Cup Series, as the LifeLock.com 400 marks the beginning of the second half of the season. We’re inching ever closer to the Chase for the Sprint Cup, and all of the fanfare that comes with the final ten races of the season.

Chicago provides a good test of who should be there in the Chase, as it shares many characteristics with the cookie-cutter tracks that make up its foundation. Combine that with its Saturday night time slot, and the action at Chicago is perhaps some of the best that TNT shows during its brief run of NASCAR broadcasts.

As for those behind the wheel, who has the best chance at claiming victory in Chicago?

Most signs point to Kevin Harvick as the way to go this weekend. The points leader has won twice this season, although both victories came on superspeedways. But his Chicagoland record is stout – two wins (his first two attempts) and five top-five finishes in nine starts. Happy’s only failed to complete a single lap at the track, back in 2003, and has led an impressive 282 of them. It’s safe to say that he owns this track, if anybody does.

A solid dark horse pick for the weekend is A.J. Allmendinger, who has finished 13th in both of his Chicagoland starts. This isn’t so much a history pick as a current circumstances pick. After some rough words at Daytona with legendary owner Richard Petty, Allmendinger certainly feels like he has something to prove behind the wheel, and his team needs to give him some better equipment if they have any chance at retaining his services for 2011 and beyond.

Three others:

Okay, so Jimmie Johnson is a bit of a “duh” pick everywhere, especially with seven top-10s in eight starts and the track’s best average finish, an 8.1. But did you know that Four-Time has never won a Chicagoland event? True story. He’s been sixth or better in every Chicagoland race except for 2001, when he did not compete, and 2007, when he crashed out. He’s also led laps in every race at the track but 2001 (again, because he was not yet a Cup driver) and 2006. But he’s somehow never eked out a win. Food for thought.

Tony Stewart finished fifth or better in every Chicago event but those in 2001 and 2006, when he had two finishes in the 30s. He’s also led at least one lap in every Chicagoland race but those in 2001 and 2005. His 9.6 average finish is not quite Johnson’s, but he does have two wins at the track (in 2004 and 2007) under his belt, unlike his former home improvement warehouse-toting rival.

Finally, don’t forget Dale Earnhardt Jr., whose solid Daytona runs have put him on everybody’s mind as a driver once again. His Chicagoland finishes have been decidedly mediocre, with a 15.2 average finish, but he did manage to pull out the victory in 2005. And riding a wave of momentum, both from his Nationwide win in a throwback Wrangler car and from positioning himself back in the Chase after a fourth-place finish in the Cup event, he could certainly stand to duplicate.

Filed under: Chicagoland Speedway, One and Done NASCAR Fantasy Racing 

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Fantasy Pick’Em: 2010 Coca-Cola 600

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by Chris Leone, Special To NASCAR commentary and pictures,2010 NASCAR schedule,NASCAR video, Bench Racing With Steve and Charlie

I do weekly Fantasy Pick'Em columns here at OPR, as well as the occasional opinion and analysis piece. I also provide the IZOD IndyCar Series coverage. For more on that, head to my site, OpenWheelAmerica.com. My Twitter handle is @christopherlion.

May 27, 2010 11:27 am CDT No Comments

Kurt Busch in the Miller Lite Dodge at TMS practice

Kurt Busch in the Miller Lite Dodge at TMS practice

The weekend immediately following the Sprint All-Star Race, the Coca-Cola 600 is one of the crown jewels of NASCAR’s Sprint Cup Series. Designed to compete with the Indianapolis 500 on Memorial Day weekend, it joins the Daytona 500, Southern 500, and Brickyard 400 as one of the series’ most important and prestigious races.

Last year’s rain-shortened event was taken on a dreary Monday by David Reutimann. He added his name to a long list of first-time winners at the track, including all-time greats David Pearson and Jeff Gordon, by opting not to pit during the final caution of the event while many other cars did. The 600 often produces a surprise winner, as many of the big races do, but to suggest it happens every time would be to ignore many drivers who have won it during the peak of their careers, from Gordon to Dale Earnhardt to Jimmie Johnson.

So I’m going to go out on a limb (except not at all) and make Johnson my lead pick. Without the Lowe’s sponsorship, Johnson doesn’t have that extra sort of motivation to dominate at the track, but I see no reason why he can’t keep up a torrid pace of 6 wins and 13 top-10s in 17 starts. The only race in which he has failed to lead a lap was his track debut. His average finish of 8.6 is by far the best of drivers with at least five starts at the track. This is a gimme if you can take it.

Kurt Busch qualifies as a bit of a dark horse at Charlotte, despite the fact that he won last weekend’s All-Star Race. Busch only has three top-5s and a dismal 20.9 average finish in 19 career points-paying starts. If he can win the 600, however, he’d be the seventh driver in 25 years of Charlotte-based all-star events that a driver won both races; Kasey Kahne was the last to do it in 2008.

Some other drivers of merit in the longest race of the NASCAR season:

Joey Logano has only four starts at Charlotte, counting his All-Star travails, but has never disappointed. He converted last year’s Fan Vote into an eighth place run, and finished ninth and fifth in the two races that counted last year. This year, he wound up third in the all-star event. Remember that Jeff Gordon also won the 600 in his sophomore year of NASCAR competition – we could very well see shades of the last great young driver on Sunday night.

Kasey Kahne has also been on a torrid pace at Charlotte over the past two years. In four points-paying starts, he has three podium finishes and a worst placing of seventh. His 11.6 career Charlotte average finish is one of the best on the circuit, and it appears that his worst years at the track are long behind him. Kahne has scored the most points in the last three Charlotte races, and in every amount up through the last nine. usually goes big or goes home – he has three wins and five top-5s, but four finishes of 23rd or worse.

Finally, Jeff Burton has been a highly consistent driver at Charlotte as of late. For his career, he has 32 starts with three wins and 15 top-10s, as well as a win in the 2002 all-star shootout. Burton has scored the third most points at Charlotte over the past five years, second only to Johnson and Kahne; these ten races have been buoyed by a win in October 2008, five top-10s, and only three finishes outside the top 20.

Filed under: Jeff Burton, Joey Logano, Kasey Kahne, Kurt Busch, Lowes Motor Speedway, One and Done NASCAR Fantasy Racing, jimmie johnson 

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Fantasy Pick’Em: 2010 Autism Speaks 400

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by Chris Leone, Special To NASCAR commentary and pictures,2010 NASCAR schedule,NASCAR video, Bench Racing With Steve and Charlie

I do weekly Fantasy Pick'Em columns here at OPR, as well as the occasional opinion and analysis piece. I also provide the IZOD IndyCar Series coverage. For more on that, head to my site, OpenWheelAmerica.com. My Twitter handle is @christopherlion.

May 12, 2010 11:04 pm CDT No Comments

The Monster Mile, Dover International Speedway, will play host to this weekend’s Sprint Cup Series race, the Autism Speaks 400. Taken last year by Jimmie Johnson after an impressive pass of Tony Stewart with three laps to go, this is the last points-paying event before the All-Star festivities at Charlotte.

One of this week’s biggest headlines has been Rick Hendrick’s claim that Joe Gibbs Racing has “lapped” his Hendrick Motorsports team. This isn’t the case at Dover, however; three Hendrick drivers have an average finish at least four points better than that of Kyle Busch, Gibbs’ top Dover driver, whose average is a middling 16.9. Team leader Denny Hamlin has taken the fight to Johnson elsewhere this season, but horrible luck at Dover has given him four finishes outside of the top 35 in eight starts.

So if not the Gibbs drivers, who do you pick at Dover?

I’m going with Carl Edwards. Assuming that he won’t visit victory lane ever again is kind of a stretch, even if he hasn’t been a serious threat since that wild ride at Talladega last year. Edwards is exceptional at Dover, his average finish of 7.9 in 11 starts buoyed by seven top-10s and a win. Those other four races? No worse than 18th. He hasn’t failed to complete a lap in his last nine starts.

Martin Truex Jr. is my dark horse, though he’s certainly a middling driver at the track, with the lone exception of his dominant spring 2007 win. Three top-10s are offset by three finishes outside of the top 20, for an average finish of 15.2. It’s decent, but you can find better; then again, Truex’s team has used their “NAPA Know How” to put together a string of solid runs recently, putting them a mere 16 points out of the Chase. A Dover win could propel Truex into the playoffs just as it did three years ago.

Three more concrete warriors to consider:

Johnson has five wins in 16 Dover starts. That’s equal to the amount of sub-10th place finishes he has, and even then, three of those were top-15s. He also swept the track last year, leading 298 and 271 laps respectively on the way to his two victories. I’m not picking him for the sake of remaining interesting.

Jeff Gordon is long overdue for a win, and everybody knows it – the DuPont team should not be 40 races between trips to victory lane right now, especially given how strong they’ve been the past two weeks. Gordon’s accrued four wins and 21 top-10s in 34 Dover starts, though three of the wins came in 1995 and 1996, and only one came in a 400-mile event. The past four years have seen Gordon finish 12th or better in seven out of eight starts, with a total of 114 laps led.

Finally, four-time Dover winner Mark “The Kid” Martin gets a look for the consistency he’s shown at Dover since 2004. He doesn’t lead many laps, and hasn’t led in triple digits since last millennium, but going to Dover both times every year (even in his limited schedules) has kept him sharp at the oval. In 10 of his last 12 starts, he’s been in the top ten when the checkered flag fell; the other finishes were 14th and 23rd, not too shabby. Martin was the runner-up in the fall race, something he’s done seven times at the track.

Filed under: Carl Edwards, Dover International Speedway, Jeff Gordon, Mark Martin, Martin Truex Jr., One and Done NASCAR Fantasy Racing, Sprint Cup Series, jimmie johnson 

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