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Fantasy Pick’Em: 2010 Kobalt Tools 500

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by Chris Leone, Special To NASCAR commentary and driver pictures, 2011 NASCAR schedule, video, Bench Racing With Steve and Charlie

I do weekly Fantasy Pick'Em columns here at OPR, as well as the occasional opinion and analysis piece. I also provide the IZOD IndyCar Series coverage. For more on that, head to my site, OpenWheelAmerica.com. My Twitter handle is @christopherlion.

November 11, 2010 12:09 pm CST No Comments

The penultimate round of this year’s Sprint Cup Series season comes at Phoenix International Raceway. The Kobalt Tools 500 comes after a wild race at Texas that saw one Chaser flip off an official, two mild-mannered Chasers get into a fight, and Jimmie Johnson somehow lose the points lead to a determined Denny Hamlin.

Lucky for Johnson that Phoenix is up next. While Hamlin has a top five finish in half of his career Phoenix starts, Johnson has an eye-popping 4.9 average finish at the track. It’s augmented by 12 top-10s, and four wins (including the win in this race last year), in 14 starts. It’s one of the best records ever for any given driver at any particular track.

The statistics seem to say that Phoenix is a Hendrick Motorsports track, as the top three active drivers are Johnson, Mark Martin, and Jeff Gordon. So, for once in the Chase, I’m going to go on a limb and pick a non-Chase driver as my lead pick, seeing as I’ve already picked Johnson and Gordon in the past eight weeks, and both may be negatively affected by their crew swap this weekend.

That’s right – Martin’s my fantasy pick for the weekend. It’s really not hard to bet against a guy who hasn’t finished outside the top 20 at a track since his debut there, and that’s the case with Martin. In particular, he hasn’t finished worse than fourth at the track with Hendrick, winning in the spring race last year.

Martin has also picked it up in the Chase, finishing no worse than 14th since Dover and scoring a runner-up finish at Martinsville. Last week’s race at Texas yielded a third-place finish. The team has momentum on its side.

My second pick of the weekend is Jeff Burton, another ex-Jack Roush driver whose stock has been pretty high at Phoenix even after leaving the flagship Ford stable. He had a 25th place finish at the track in the spring, but before that, you would have had to go all the way back to 1996 to find a Burton finish outside the top 15.

Of course, Burton’s been in the news recently for a different reason – putting Gordon in the catchfence while under caution last week and then getting fought afterwards. It made for great TV, but it’s not exactly the kind of thing that gives a guy momentum heading into the final two races of the season.

My third and final pick of the week – the dark horse selection – is, after much deliberation, Juan Pablo Montoya. Montoya’s Phoenix debut ended in an auspicious 33rd place run, and he struggled at the track early in his career, contributing to a middling 17.1 average finish in seven starts.

But in his past two runs, Montoya’s made great strides. This time last year, he placed eighth. In the spring of this year, he led 104 laps, including most of the middle of the race, to finish a solid fifth. No, he doesn’t dominate the track like Johnson, but would he really be a dark horse then?

Filed under: One and Done NASCAR Fantasy Racing, Phoenix International Raceway 

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Fantasy Pick’Em: 2010 Lenox 301

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by Chris Leone, Special To NASCAR commentary and driver pictures, 2011 NASCAR schedule, video, Bench Racing With Steve and Charlie

I do weekly Fantasy Pick'Em columns here at OPR, as well as the occasional opinion and analysis piece. I also provide the IZOD IndyCar Series coverage. For more on that, head to my site, OpenWheelAmerica.com. My Twitter handle is @christopherlion.

June 24, 2010 11:20 am CDT 1 Comment

Jeff Gordon Pitstop at Michigan Speedway

Jeff Gordon Pitstop at Michigan Speedway

This weekend’s Lenox 301 at New Hampshire Motor Speedway marks the first race of the Sprint Cup Series’ Race to the Chase, a ten-race dash to set the field for the Chase for the Sprint Cup at the end of the year. Right now, eight drivers are within 161 points (the maximum swing between first and last in a race) of 12th-place Carl Edwards, making the next ten races crucially important for those bubble drivers.

Loudon is a unique track to Sprint Cup, in that it is reminiscent of Martinsville on steroids. It’s a mile long, completely flat, and few drivers can maintain top ten average finishes at the track. Even the best Loudon drivers only crack the top ten about half the time.

So which drivers are good bets at the sport’s most northern track?

My pick for the weekend is Jeff Gordon. In 30 starts, he has an average finish of 11.4, with 13 top five results. Though he hasn’t won at the track since 1998, he has four finishes of third or better in the last seven Loudon races and led 64 laps in this event last year. He’ll be looking for a long overdue first win of the season.

My dark horse for the weekend is Martin Truex Jr., racing once again at his home track, per se. The New Jersey native finished in the top ten each time he ran at Loudon in 2007 and 2008, with last year’s poor finishes an aberration. It was his big wins at Loudon in the K&N East Series that actually put him in position to step up to the big time in the first place. Truex will also be looking to make up for a race ruined by Gordon last weekend.

Three more, as per usual:

Denny Hamlin has the best average finish of a driver with a significant amount of starts at Loudon. In eight races, he’s put up a 7.5 average, with one win and six top fives. More impressive, Hamlin has never failed to complete a lap at the track, nor has he ever finished worse than 15th.

Any longtime fan of the sport, or of this track, knows that Jeff Burton once owned Loudon like no other driver could ever imagine. From 1997 to 2000, Burton won a race every year, with his 300-out-of-300 laps led in the fall of 2000 his masterpiece at the track. Sure, Burton hasn’t won there since, but he’s continued to put up solid runs.

Finally, let’s go way out in left field and give Bobby Labonte a little name recognition. He’s just left TRG Motorsports and will attempt to run the full race in Robby Gordon’s unsponsored No. 7 car. He actually led in both Loudon races last year, and although his finishes haven’t shown it as of late, he was once a shoo-in for top finishes every race. His feedback on the car will help Gordon’s team move forward as they attempt to gain sponsorship for the rest of the season.

Filed under: Bobby Labonte, Denny Hamlin, Jeff Burton, Jeff Gordon, Martin Truex Jr., New Hampshire International Speedway, One and Done NASCAR Fantasy Racing 

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Fantasy Pick’Em: 2010 Coca-Cola 600

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by Chris Leone, Special To NASCAR commentary and driver pictures, 2011 NASCAR schedule, video, Bench Racing With Steve and Charlie

I do weekly Fantasy Pick'Em columns here at OPR, as well as the occasional opinion and analysis piece. I also provide the IZOD IndyCar Series coverage. For more on that, head to my site, OpenWheelAmerica.com. My Twitter handle is @christopherlion.

May 27, 2010 11:27 am CDT No Comments

Kurt Busch in the Miller Lite Dodge at TMS practice

Kurt Busch in the Miller Lite Dodge at TMS practice

The weekend immediately following the Sprint All-Star Race, the Coca-Cola 600 is one of the crown jewels of NASCAR’s Sprint Cup Series. Designed to compete with the Indianapolis 500 on Memorial Day weekend, it joins the Daytona 500, Southern 500, and Brickyard 400 as one of the series’ most important and prestigious races.

Last year’s rain-shortened event was taken on a dreary Monday by David Reutimann. He added his name to a long list of first-time winners at the track, including all-time greats David Pearson and Jeff Gordon, by opting not to pit during the final caution of the event while many other cars did. The 600 often produces a surprise winner, as many of the big races do, but to suggest it happens every time would be to ignore many drivers who have won it during the peak of their careers, from Gordon to Dale Earnhardt to Jimmie Johnson.

So I’m going to go out on a limb (except not at all) and make Johnson my lead pick. Without the Lowe’s sponsorship, Johnson doesn’t have that extra sort of motivation to dominate at the track, but I see no reason why he can’t keep up a torrid pace of 6 wins and 13 top-10s in 17 starts. The only race in which he has failed to lead a lap was his track debut. His average finish of 8.6 is by far the best of drivers with at least five starts at the track. This is a gimme if you can take it.

Kurt Busch qualifies as a bit of a dark horse at Charlotte, despite the fact that he won last weekend’s All-Star Race. Busch only has three top-5s and a dismal 20.9 average finish in 19 career points-paying starts. If he can win the 600, however, he’d be the seventh driver in 25 years of Charlotte-based all-star events that a driver won both races; Kasey Kahne was the last to do it in 2008.

Some other drivers of merit in the longest race of the NASCAR season:

Joey Logano has only four starts at Charlotte, counting his All-Star travails, but has never disappointed. He converted last year’s Fan Vote into an eighth place run, and finished ninth and fifth in the two races that counted last year. This year, he wound up third in the all-star event. Remember that Jeff Gordon also won the 600 in his sophomore year of NASCAR competition – we could very well see shades of the last great young driver on Sunday night.

Kasey Kahne has also been on a torrid pace at Charlotte over the past two years. In four points-paying starts, he has three podium finishes and a worst placing of seventh. His 11.6 career Charlotte average finish is one of the best on the circuit, and it appears that his worst years at the track are long behind him. Kahne has scored the most points in the last three Charlotte races, and in every amount up through the last nine. usually goes big or goes home – he has three wins and five top-5s, but four finishes of 23rd or worse.

Finally, Jeff Burton has been a highly consistent driver at Charlotte as of late. For his career, he has 32 starts with three wins and 15 top-10s, as well as a win in the 2002 all-star shootout. Burton has scored the third most points at Charlotte over the past five years, second only to Johnson and Kahne; these ten races have been buoyed by a win in October 2008, five top-10s, and only three finishes outside the top 20.

Filed under: Jeff Burton, Joey Logano, Kasey Kahne, Kurt Busch, Lowes Motor Speedway, One and Done NASCAR Fantasy Racing, jimmie johnson 

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Fantasy Pick’Em: 2010 Aaron’s 499

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by Chris Leone, Special To NASCAR commentary and driver pictures, 2011 NASCAR schedule, video, Bench Racing With Steve and Charlie

I do weekly Fantasy Pick'Em columns here at OPR, as well as the occasional opinion and analysis piece. I also provide the IZOD IndyCar Series coverage. For more on that, head to my site, OpenWheelAmerica.com. My Twitter handle is @christopherlion.

April 21, 2010 1:47 pm CDT No Comments

The Aaron’s 499 at Talladega Superspeedway will mark the ninth race of this year’s Sprint Cup Series season, and one of the most difficult to predict in fantasy racing. Anybody who’s ever seen a superspeedway race knows that the “big one” is lurking around every corner, and can knock out many good cars in less time than it takes to change four tires and refuel.

Last year, Brad Keselowski turned Carl Edwards in the tri-oval on the final lap to secure his first career victory. It was a scary moment for Edwards, as his car wound up touching the catchfence in mid-air, injuring eight fans, and he hasn’t won since. Despite the safety improvements made to the cars, these sorts of wrecks are always possible, and are more common at the big tracks than anywhere else.

In other words, this weekend is a fantasy crapshoot. To that end, let’s have some fun.

Joey Logano is my pick for this weekend’s race. Keep in mind that we had a surprise winner in Keselowski last year, a definition that Logano would certainly fit. He led laps in both Talladega races last year, finishing 9th in the spring and 3rd in the fall. His team has also gotten it together this year, and they’re legitimate Chase contenders. Hey, it’s worth a shot.

My dark horse pick for the weekend is none other than Michael Waltrip. Competing in only his second race of the season, this will mark the first time in months that Prism Motorsports looks to actually complete the full race with one of its cars, the No. 55 Aaron’s Toyota. Waltrip drives for the race sponsor and has won at the track before. Again, it’s worth a shot, isn’t it?

Three more, all of whom will probably fall victim to bad luck because I picked them:

Hey, remember when Dale Earnhardt Jr. won four Talladega races in a row? He’s led laps in 18 of his 20 career Talladega starts, too. He was pretty strong at Daytona at the beginning of the year, and he’s pretty overdue for a win. His Talladega luck is also pretty good – of his five DNFs at the track, three were due to engine failures, and those were DEI powerplants, not the Hendrick ones he currently receives.

Picking at Talladega is all about luck. Jeff Burton seems to have some of that at Talladega. He’s led at least one lap in six of the past seven Talladega events, including in each of the past four, a span in which he has finished no worse than 12th. Burton has the patience to let the race come to him and the luck to avoid wrecks; only two of his five DNFs were due to accidents, and they came in 2005 and his 1994 track debut.

Finally, Jamie McMurray is currently one of the best restrictor-plate drivers on the circuit, winning the past two races under the format. Jamie Mac has led in six of his past nine Talladega starts. He does, however, have some poor luck at the track, crashing out in three of the past eight events. Choose wisely.

Filed under: Dale Earnhardt Jr., Jamie McMurray, Jeff Burton, Joey Logano, Michael Waltrip, One and Done NASCAR Fantasy Racing, Talladega Superspeedway 

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Fantasy Pick’Em: 2010 Samsung Mobile 500

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by Chris Leone, Special To NASCAR commentary and driver pictures, 2011 NASCAR schedule, video, Bench Racing With Steve and Charlie

I do weekly Fantasy Pick'Em columns here at OPR, as well as the occasional opinion and analysis piece. I also provide the IZOD IndyCar Series coverage. For more on that, head to my site, OpenWheelAmerica.com. My Twitter handle is @christopherlion.

April 15, 2010 3:13 pm CDT No Comments

This weekend’s Samsung Mobile 500 at Texas Motor Speedway will be the eighth race of this year’s Sprint Cup Series season. Last year, Jeff Gordon scored his lone win of the season in this race, leading a race-high 105 laps, including the last 28.

Before anything else, though, I’d like to comment on what a whirlwind of a week this has been as far as the silly season goes. Kasey Kahne to Hendrick in 2012, in a Jamie McMurray-esque situation? Two of the lower-tier teams changing drivers? Kelly Bires and John Wes Townley out of rides? Silly season keeps happening earlier and earlier every year, and I think NASCAR needs to look into implementing some restrictions on signings like Kahne’s. I understand that the drivers and teams are independent contractors, but how would Colts fans feel if Peyton Manning signed with the Titans for the 2012 season before even completing this year or the next?

Without further ado, and before I start ranting uncontrollably about the Kahne signing, let’s just go to the fantasy picks and call it a day.

My headlining pick for the weekend is Tony Stewart. Of active drivers, Smoke is the fourth-best at Texas, with one win and 10 top-10s in 16 starts. The win came in the fall of 2006, when he led 278 of the race’s 339 laps. Smoke also has to be buoyed by teammate Ryan Newman’s win last weekend at Phoenix, a great step towards asserting that Stewart-Haas Racing won’t fall victim to a sophomore slump in 2010.

As for a dark horse, I’m going to pick Kahne. Yes, he has been very mediocre at Texas, with only one win and two top-10s in 11 starts, but something tells me that his Richard Petty Motorsports team is going to go all out this weekend and in the next few weeks to try and prove that they can run up front, not only for Kahne’s potential replacements, but maybe even to keep him in the seat for 2011.

Okay, we’ve got three more picks to go. Is it fair enough for me to invoke Texas hold ‘em and call this the fantasy “flop”? (Heaven knows a lot of my picks tend to do so on raceday.)

The top active driver statistically at Texas is Matt Kenseth, with an average finish of 9.3. No other driver has a single-digit average finish at Texas, not even the great Jimmie Johnson. Kenseth has not won at Texas since 2002, but has led at least one lap in eight of the last ten Texas races. Over that span, his worst finish is 18th, with six top fives (including three runner-up finishes) and lead-lap finishes in all ten starts.

Kurt Busch is somewhat of a risky pick, but he did win the last time the Cup cars went to Texas. Granted, he only has one Texas DNF, but he hasn’t been as consistently up front at the track throughout his career as guys like Kenseth and Johnson. In fact, his only other top five finish came in his Texas debut, in the spring of 2001, when he finished fourth.

Finally, Jeff Burton has only recently asserted himself as a Texas contender, but he’s almost always been towards the front since joining Richard Childress Racing. He only led one lap in the one Texas race he won, but since 2006 he’s finished in the top 10 six out of eight times.

Filed under: One and Done NASCAR Fantasy Racing, Texas Motor Speedway 

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Fantasy Pick’Em: 2010 Subway Fresh Fit 600k

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by Chris Leone, Special To NASCAR commentary and driver pictures, 2011 NASCAR schedule, video, Bench Racing With Steve and Charlie

I do weekly Fantasy Pick'Em columns here at OPR, as well as the occasional opinion and analysis piece. I also provide the IZOD IndyCar Series coverage. For more on that, head to my site, OpenWheelAmerica.com. My Twitter handle is @christopherlion.

April 8, 2010 1:53 am CDT 1 Comment

We’re now six races into the Sprint Cup Series season, as the circuit heads to Phoenix International Raceway for the Subway Fresh Fit 600k. Last year, Mark Martin won this race, his first victory at Phoenix in 16 years, and first of five over the course of the season.

Am I the only one who’s found the two early-season off weeks incredibly disjointing? I’ve nearly lost track of who’s where in points. It doesn’t help that I’ve had a few busy weeks, too, but let’s spread some of these off-weeks out for when we really need them!

With that in mind, I’m not going to pick Phoenix based on momentum. The choppy early season kills that a little. Denny Hamlin, the winner two weeks ago, just had his knee worked on, so there’s not much we should expect out of him yet anyway. Jimmie Johnson is Jimmie Johnson – momentum doesn’t matter, he’s going to perform no matter what. So let’s just look at the numbers and pick five, shall we?

I’m going to go with Martin this weekend, partially because it seems about time that he kick it into gear. He was fourth in points exiting Las Vegas, only to plummet to 17th in the last three weeks. You also have to keep in mind that Martin is to Phoenix what Johnson is to Martinsville, albeit without quite as many wins. His average finish of 8.3 in 26 starts is incredible. Unlike a driver with a shorter career like Johnson, with fewer opportunities to make a mistake, Martin has finished every Phoenix race he’s started since 1989.

My dark horse is Joey Logano. Call it a hunch, because it is. He’s finished 21st in both Cup starts at Phoenix. But he’s been solid in the two Nationwide races, and the poise that he’s shown thus far this season proves that he’s a much different driver than he was one year ago. I wouldn’t call it momentum that he’s got going into the weekend – confidence seems like a better term.

Three more, because I always do:

Johnson has won four of the past five Phoenix races. Yup. I should probably take him overall but it feels like cheating because it’s so darned obvious.

Jeff Burton is an interesting pick, as the combination of his resurgence thus far this year and a Phoenix record that includes two wins and an average finish of 10.8 in 21 starts suggest good things for the Virginia native. He did work his way up from a 36th place starting spot to finish second in the fall race last year. Dominating wins in 2000 and 2001 show that he knows how to get it done.

Finally, Carl Edwards is way overdue for some good luck. He’s never won in a Cup car at Phoenix, but seven top-10s in 11 starts suggest he can. He had a great shot in the fall of 2007, leading 85 laps, until a blown engine stuck him 42nd in the final rundown. Other than that anomaly, and his debut at the track, he’s been generally pretty consistent.

Filed under: Carl Edwards, Jeff Burton, Joey Logano, Mark Martin, One and Done NASCAR Fantasy Racing, Phoenix International Raceway, jimmie johnson 

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