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Chase History: Homestead-Miami Speedway

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by Chris Leone, Special To NASCAR commentary and driver pictures, 2012 NASCAR schedule, video, Bench Racing With Steve and Charlie

I do weekly Fantasy Pick'Em columns here at OPR, as well as the occasional opinion and analysis piece. I also provide the IZOD IndyCar Series coverage. For more on that, head to my site, OpenWheelAmerica.com. My Twitter handle is @christopherlion.

November 18, 2011 11:38 am UTC No Comments

I hate to borrow from another sport’s marketing campaign to explain this weekend’s Chase for the Sprint Cup finale at Homestead-Miami Speedway, but I feel like the NHL’s playoff slogan says it all: History will be made.

We have a two-way battle for the championship between Carl Edwards and Tony Stewart, and if either of them win the race, they win the title. It’s as simple as that. Both drivers are on top of their game, unlike last year, when Jimmie Johnson was able to psyche out Denny Hamlin relatively easily. Stewart’s been engaging Edwards pretty heavily in the media, but Edwards doesn’t seem too worried about it.

Perhaps it’s because neither of Stewart’s two Homestead wins came on this track layout. While Smoke dominated the early years of its Cup history, winning the inaugural race in 1999 and again in 2000, track ownership altered its shape and banking in 2003. Since then, Roush Fenway Racing has basically owned the track, winning six of the last seven races there. The last two of those wins, in 2008 and 2010, went to Edwards.

Or perhaps it’s because Edwards is just better at Homestead. Stewart’s got a good track record, with two wins and six top-10s in 12 starts and an average finish of 12.4. But Edwards has two wins and six top-10s of his own in only seven races run. His average finish is 5.7. That’s off the wall. That’s the kind of average finish that will give you 1:2 odds in Vegas.

And yet, Stewart’s won a title under the Chase format before. Edwards hasn’t. Stewart has the advantage of having been in Edwards’ position in 2005 and knowing what throws a leader’s mindset off. He’s got all the confidence in the world – he just needs to execute.

Ignore the change in points formatting before this season. This championship could, theoretically, end in a tie (which would go to Stewart on the strength of more wins). It could be separated by only one or two points, which, under the old system, would still be a narrower margin of victory than Kurt Busch’s eight point win in 2004. Either way, it’s a very slim chance that Sunday becomes a gimme for either driver.

So get your popcorn ready, folks. We’re about to witness history.

Filed under: Carl Edwards, Chase for the Cup, Homestead-Miami Speedway, Tony Stewart 

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Fantasy Pick’Em: 2010 Ford 400

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by Chris Leone, Special To NASCAR commentary and driver pictures, 2012 NASCAR schedule, video, Bench Racing With Steve and Charlie

I do weekly Fantasy Pick'Em columns here at OPR, as well as the occasional opinion and analysis piece. I also provide the IZOD IndyCar Series coverage. For more on that, head to my site, OpenWheelAmerica.com. My Twitter handle is @christopherlion.

November 18, 2010 4:26 pm UTC No Comments

This is it, folks. The last race of the 2010 Sprint Cup Series season. The Ford 400 at Homestead-Miami Speedway. The race for all the marbles in the Chase for the Sprint Cup.

Three drivers have a shot at the title. Denny Hamlin holds a 15-point lead over four-time defending champion Jimmie Johnson. Meanwhile, Kevin Harvick, who would have clinched the title under the old points format last week at Phoenix, sits in third, a mere 46 back.

Any of them could win the championship. In effect, it comes down to a win. Hamlin can clinch outright by winning the race. Johnson can do so by winning the race and leading the most laps. Harvick, on the other hand, needs a little more help – and although Johnson and Hamlin can still be beaten with top-10 finishes, the math gets tricky.

It’s the closest Chase title race since its inaugural season in 2004. So let’s forget the normal fantasy stuff this week, and switch it up a bit. We care about three drivers and three drivers only right now. And one of them will be your Sprint Cup champion come Sunday. But who?

Hamlin, of course, controls his own destiny. As we’ve said, if he wins the race, the title is his, no matter what. And Hamlin has won at this track before – last year, in fact, making him the only title contender with a Homestead win. At the beginning of the Chase, he talked about simply making it to the end, because the last few races are when the No. 11 team heats up, and it’s shown in their performance. They’re the best team at the track right now.

But being good and being lucky are two different things, and Hamlin was not lucky last week at Phoenix. Having to pit for fuel very late in the race bounced him back to 12th. While it didn’t slaughter his points lead entirely, it did weaken it severely, and the pressure is on him.

Meanwhile, Johnson must be somewhat refreshed by his new position as the pressuring driver. With Hamlin thrown off by last week’s setback, he and Chad Knaus can try to mess with their key championship rivals on track. After all, they’ve done this before. Four times, to be precise. In a row. What’s a fifth?

Well, none of those previous four were come-from-behind wins. In fact, nobody’s ever come from behind in the Chase to win without holding the points lead with two races to go. It hasn’t been done in Cup since 1992, when Alan Kulwicki did it. And Johnson, with his 12.7 average finish, is actually the worst of the three title contenders at Homestead. While he usually finishes solidly at the track, he’s never capped off any of his title runs there with a win.

So, given all that, I’m going to take the road less traveled and pick Harvick to win the title.

Yup.

If you’ve followed my column all Chase, you’d know that I pick a “lead” driver every week, and I’ve been saving Harvick for this very weekend anyway. With four top-fives in nine starts, he has the best average finish of the title contenders at the track, an 8.4. He’s finished second and third the past two years at Homestead, so he knows what he’s doing.

And I’m going to put my faith in karma – that the driver who dominated the regular season, who should have a 200-plus points lead and his first Cup championship right now, will find a way to get it done – and get a little lucky this weekend.

Game on, gentlemen. It should be a fun show.

Filed under: Homestead-Miami Speedway, One and Done NASCAR Fantasy Racing 

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IndyCar Race Preview: Cafes do Brazil Indy 300

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by Chris Leone, Special To NASCAR commentary and driver pictures, 2012 NASCAR schedule, video, Bench Racing With Steve and Charlie

I do weekly Fantasy Pick'Em columns here at OPR, as well as the occasional opinion and analysis piece. I also provide the IZOD IndyCar Series coverage. For more on that, head to my site, OpenWheelAmerica.com. My Twitter handle is @christopherlion.

October 2, 2010 12:58 pm UTC No Comments

The IZOD IndyCar Series will take the green flag one last time at the Homestead-Miami Speedway tonight for the Cafes do Brazil Indy 300. Besides being the final race of the IndyCar season, it will be the final race of the near future at Homestead, after the longtime open-wheel hosts and the sanctioning body could not come to an agreement for a 2011 event.

As such, expect tonight to be a show of great magnitude, with both sides looking to go out with a bang.

The biggest storyline remains the championship battle between leader Will Power and second place Dario Franchitti, the defending series champ. Franchitti will start on pole alongside his Chip Ganassi Racing teammate, Scott Dixon. Meanwhile, Power’s Team Penske machine will roll off the grid third.

The pole comes with a bonus point, one of three available per weekend. Franchitti came into the race weekend 12 points behind Power, meaning a win after leading the most laps in the race would seal the championship for him no matter what Power does; since first place pays 10 more points than second, even a 1-2 between the two contenders would mean Power would lose the title by a single point.

But neither Power nor his Team Penske teammates are willing to concede the first IndyCar title for owner Roger Penske since 2006 so easily. Teammate Ryan Briscoe paced final practice after qualifying fourth, while Helio Castroneves will attempt to back up wins in the series’ past two races with a march to the front from 10th on the grid. Castroneves and Andretti Autosport’s Tony Kanaan will actually serve as co-grand marshals of the event, giving the command to start engines from the cockpits of their cars.

Homestead marks the final opportunity of the year for a handful of winless drivers to grab one checkered flag before the season ends. The top seven in points have all won a race, but eighth place Dan Wheldon, ninth place Marco Andretti, 10th place Justin Wilson, and 11th place Danica Patrick are just some of the big names that have not seen victory lane this year. Of them, Wheldon stands the best shot; the three-time Homestead winner (2005-07) and Panther Racing have been achingly close to victory in the past few domestic oval races.

The race will also inevitably mark the final event for a handful of driver-team combinations, as plenty of teams will be looking to move up in the ranks for 2011. The question right now is who will stay and who will go. As recently as last week, Panther and Wheldon were considered the most likely to separate, after two years of mutual frustration and a lawsuit filed for $2.5 million in back wages by Wheldon’s management. Now that the suit has been settled, however, Panther owner John Barnes is discussing bringing Wheldon back.

Justin Wilson and his Z-Line Designs sponsorship are a hot commodity, as are the talents of Simona de Silvestro and Graham Rahal. Meanwhile, a handful of Firestone Indy Lights graduates appear ready for the big time in 2011, with Ana Beatriz, James Hinchcliffe, and Sebastian Saavedra likely to attract at least some interest from team owners.

Meanwhile, in the Lights race, Pippa Mann will roll off the grid first. Charlie Kimball will join her on the front row, while series champion Jean-Karl Vernay will start 12th and clinch this year’s championship upon taking the green flag.

Filed under: Homestead-Miami Speedway, Indy Cars 

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One and Done: Ford 400

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by Chris Leone, Special To NASCAR commentary and driver pictures, 2012 NASCAR schedule, video, Bench Racing With Steve and Charlie

I do weekly Fantasy Pick'Em columns here at OPR, as well as the occasional opinion and analysis piece. I also provide the IZOD IndyCar Series coverage. For more on that, head to my site, OpenWheelAmerica.com. My Twitter handle is @christopherlion.

November 19, 2009 11:23 am UTC 3 Comments

Well, the Sprint Cup Series ends this week at Homestead, and I’m pretty sure that we’re all glad to see the end of yet another season of Jimmie Johnson taking advantage of the Chase format like a fat man at the Golden Corral.

It’s just not fun to watch anymore. Worse, it’s not fun to do these fantasy picks when the obvious choice is the same guy every weekend. It makes everything… easy. Too easy.

So you know what? We’re going to try something different this week. Instead of picking Chase drivers for this week’s Homestead race, seeing as most of you have exhausted your supply of Chasers that are worth picking, I am going to make it a point of recommending non-Chase drivers this week.

If you have them available, you know who to pick, but for the rest of us, let’s make things interesting.

Kevin Harvick (avg. fn. 9.1): Despite clinching the Camping World Truck championship with Ron Hornaday last week at Phoenix, Happy’s had little to smile about on the Cup side of things this year. Luckily for him, he has an opportunity to finish the year on a high note, as Homestead is one of his better tracks. Despite never winning the season finale, he’s never finished worse than 20th and has completed 2140 of 2141 possible laps.

A.J. Allmendinger (avg. fn. 11.0): I know, he’s only made one start at Homestead, last year. But he passed 32 cars after starting dead last. That says a lot.

Martin Truex Jr. (avg. fn. 12.5): His average finish would be higher had he not run this race in 2004 as a reward for his Busch Series title. In the past three years, he’s finished 2nd, 6th, and 10th, respectively, for an average finish of 6.0. It’s his last race with Earnhardt Ganassi Racing, and I’m sure Truex would like to go out with a good finish, especially considering how bad this year has been for him.

Jamie McMurray (avg. fn. 15.4): Truex’s replacement in the No. 1 car doesn’t have quite as stellar a record at Homestead as his predecessor does, but he’s not a pushover, either. Since he became a full-time Sprint Cup driver in 2003, his average finish at Homestead is 14.3, and that’s dragged down by an engine failure in 2006. Look for McMurray, relieved at finally signing a contract for 2010, to perform well this weekend.

Bobby Labonte (avg. fn. 18.7): The only former Homestead winner in this bunch, having scored the victory in 2003, Labonte had top 10 finishes in four of his first five starts at the track. Since then, his record has declined, but that’s more of a testament to his Petty Enterprises cars being weak. Maybe Kevin Buckler‘s cars aren’t much better, but Labonte has gotten things out of those cars that David Gilliland could not (when he wasn’t starting and parking, that is). One can’t lose sight of the fact that Labonte led 174 laps the first time that the Cup cars came to Homestead.

Filed under: Homestead-Miami Speedway, One and Done NASCAR Fantasy Racing 

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Truck Series Gang Mentality

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by Matt Mercer, Special To NASCAR commentary and driver pictures, 2012 NASCAR schedule, video, Bench Racing With Steve and Charlie

I'm the former blogger of The Catfish Show NASCAR Blog and a contributor to On Pit Row. Follow me on Twitter: @mattmercer

November 13, 2008 2:10 am UTC 3 Comments

Sometimes, I can’t tell if the Ford 200 is a race or a fight. An active tradition for the last several years in the Trucks has been for championship teams to double their efforts. The trend has had some high points and very low points, and it looks to continue Friday night as the razor-thin margin between Ron Hornaday and Johnny Benson will make for some intense racing.

Three years really set the trend for this action: 2002, 2003, and 2007.

In 2002, Mike Bliss ended up winning the championship over Rick Crawford and Ted Musgrave by 46 and 51 points respectively. In that race, it was Ron Hornaday driving a second IWX truck and taking the win, thus taking possible points away from Crawford and Musgrave. Bliss finished a comfortable 5th and won the title.

2003 set the bar from gang mentality, as each championship team (with the exception of Dennis Setzer and Morgan-Dollar) entered at least 1 extra truck in the race, with Jim Smith and Ultra Motorsports throwing 5 – count ‘em, 5 – trucks in the race, and sure enough one of them played a huge part in the outcome of the championship battle. Smith had entered his 2 full-time trucks with Ted Musgrave and Andy Houston behind the wheel, along with hired guns Marty Houston (Andy’s brother), Tracy Hines, and P.J. Jones. Marty took out championship leader Brendan Gaughan in the race, creating championship chaos that allowed Travis Kvapil to win the 2003 title over Setzer and Musgrave.

Last year, Bill Davis and Kevin Harvick participated in the fight, and what Harvick lacked in trucks he made up for by piloting the second truck himself. Davis entered his championship contender Skinner, Johnny Benson, Jacques Villeneuve, and Cup driver Dave Blaney in the field. Skinner of course finished 35th and allowed Hornaday to secure the title.

Adding the trucks in the finale could prove to be a smart decision, like it was in 2002. It could take out a championship contender by hiring a crappy driver, like 2003. Or, it could be a non-factor, like it was last season. Harvick is driving the #2 truck again this weekend and Davis has entered ’09 driver Taylor Malsam in an extra truck to go along Skinner, Brian Scott, and Scott Speed to flank Benson. Will it be a factor? We’ll find out Friday. Let’s just say I wouldn’t be surprised if the Phoenix race turned out to be the PG version of the battle.

Photo credit: Icon Sports Media

Filed under: Craftsman Truck Series, Dave Blaney, Jacques Villeneuve, Kevin Harvick, NASCAR, Scott Speed 

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