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Fantasy Pick’Em: 2010 Ford 400

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by Chris Leone, Special To NASCAR commentary and driver pictures, 2012 NASCAR schedule, video, Bench Racing With Steve and Charlie

I do weekly Fantasy Pick'Em columns here at OPR, as well as the occasional opinion and analysis piece. I also provide the IZOD IndyCar Series coverage. For more on that, head to my site, OpenWheelAmerica.com. My Twitter handle is @christopherlion.

November 18, 2010 4:26 pm UTC No Comments

This is it, folks. The last race of the 2010 Sprint Cup Series season. The Ford 400 at Homestead-Miami Speedway. The race for all the marbles in the Chase for the Sprint Cup.

Three drivers have a shot at the title. Denny Hamlin holds a 15-point lead over four-time defending champion Jimmie Johnson. Meanwhile, Kevin Harvick, who would have clinched the title under the old points format last week at Phoenix, sits in third, a mere 46 back.

Any of them could win the championship. In effect, it comes down to a win. Hamlin can clinch outright by winning the race. Johnson can do so by winning the race and leading the most laps. Harvick, on the other hand, needs a little more help – and although Johnson and Hamlin can still be beaten with top-10 finishes, the math gets tricky.

It’s the closest Chase title race since its inaugural season in 2004. So let’s forget the normal fantasy stuff this week, and switch it up a bit. We care about three drivers and three drivers only right now. And one of them will be your Sprint Cup champion come Sunday. But who?

Hamlin, of course, controls his own destiny. As we’ve said, if he wins the race, the title is his, no matter what. And Hamlin has won at this track before – last year, in fact, making him the only title contender with a Homestead win. At the beginning of the Chase, he talked about simply making it to the end, because the last few races are when the No. 11 team heats up, and it’s shown in their performance. They’re the best team at the track right now.

But being good and being lucky are two different things, and Hamlin was not lucky last week at Phoenix. Having to pit for fuel very late in the race bounced him back to 12th. While it didn’t slaughter his points lead entirely, it did weaken it severely, and the pressure is on him.

Meanwhile, Johnson must be somewhat refreshed by his new position as the pressuring driver. With Hamlin thrown off by last week’s setback, he and Chad Knaus can try to mess with their key championship rivals on track. After all, they’ve done this before. Four times, to be precise. In a row. What’s a fifth?

Well, none of those previous four were come-from-behind wins. In fact, nobody’s ever come from behind in the Chase to win without holding the points lead with two races to go. It hasn’t been done in Cup since 1992, when Alan Kulwicki did it. And Johnson, with his 12.7 average finish, is actually the worst of the three title contenders at Homestead. While he usually finishes solidly at the track, he’s never capped off any of his title runs there with a win.

So, given all that, I’m going to take the road less traveled and pick Harvick to win the title.

Yup.

If you’ve followed my column all Chase, you’d know that I pick a “lead” driver every week, and I’ve been saving Harvick for this very weekend anyway. With four top-fives in nine starts, he has the best average finish of the title contenders at the track, an 8.4. He’s finished second and third the past two years at Homestead, so he knows what he’s doing.

And I’m going to put my faith in karma – that the driver who dominated the regular season, who should have a 200-plus points lead and his first Cup championship right now, will find a way to get it done – and get a little lucky this weekend.

Game on, gentlemen. It should be a fun show.

Filed under: Homestead-Miami Speedway, One and Done NASCAR Fantasy Racing 

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NASCAR Championship Fast Laps

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by Charlie Turner

Thanks for stopping by OnPitRow.com and the Bench Racing with Steve and Charlie blog. The best NASCAR and IndyCar news and opinion, exclusive pictures and video. I'm Charlie Turner. Follow me on Twitter @onpitrow

November 26, 2009 9:39 pm UTC No Comments

NASCAR drivers don’t come much more dominant than Jimmie Johnson and Hendrick Motorsport’s no. 48 Lowes Chevrolet these last four years. Johnson’s NASCAR results may be drama killing, but they are still the topic of the week.

Check out the Fast Lap Show video this week. Then let us know what you think about these four, fast ones.

[media id=24]

Turn 1 – Now that Jimmie Johnson has his fourth consecutive championship will he be able to show more of his personality?

Turn 2 -Where does Hendrick Motorsports 1-2-3 points finish rank in importance in NASCAR history

Turn 3 – Which under-achieving organization has laid the best foundation for 2010?

Turn 4 – Where will the #48 team’s greatest competition come from in 2010?

The video tells you what we think. What do you think. And since this is supposed be fast, please limit your answers to Twitter length – 140 characters. We don’t have a way to count your input, so this is the honor system for now.

Filed under: Chase for the Cup, Fast Lap Posts, Fast Lap video, Hendrick Motorsports, Homestead-Miami Speedway, jimmie johnson, NASCAR, NASCAR video, Sprint Cup Series 

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One and Done: Ford 400

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by Chris Leone, Special To NASCAR commentary and driver pictures, 2012 NASCAR schedule, video, Bench Racing With Steve and Charlie

I do weekly Fantasy Pick'Em columns here at OPR, as well as the occasional opinion and analysis piece. I also provide the IZOD IndyCar Series coverage. For more on that, head to my site, OpenWheelAmerica.com. My Twitter handle is @christopherlion.

November 19, 2009 11:23 am UTC 3 Comments

Well, the Sprint Cup Series ends this week at Homestead, and I’m pretty sure that we’re all glad to see the end of yet another season of Jimmie Johnson taking advantage of the Chase format like a fat man at the Golden Corral.

It’s just not fun to watch anymore. Worse, it’s not fun to do these fantasy picks when the obvious choice is the same guy every weekend. It makes everything… easy. Too easy.

So you know what? We’re going to try something different this week. Instead of picking Chase drivers for this week’s Homestead race, seeing as most of you have exhausted your supply of Chasers that are worth picking, I am going to make it a point of recommending non-Chase drivers this week.

If you have them available, you know who to pick, but for the rest of us, let’s make things interesting.

Kevin Harvick (avg. fn. 9.1): Despite clinching the Camping World Truck championship with Ron Hornaday last week at Phoenix, Happy’s had little to smile about on the Cup side of things this year. Luckily for him, he has an opportunity to finish the year on a high note, as Homestead is one of his better tracks. Despite never winning the season finale, he’s never finished worse than 20th and has completed 2140 of 2141 possible laps.

A.J. Allmendinger (avg. fn. 11.0): I know, he’s only made one start at Homestead, last year. But he passed 32 cars after starting dead last. That says a lot.

Martin Truex Jr. (avg. fn. 12.5): His average finish would be higher had he not run this race in 2004 as a reward for his Busch Series title. In the past three years, he’s finished 2nd, 6th, and 10th, respectively, for an average finish of 6.0. It’s his last race with Earnhardt Ganassi Racing, and I’m sure Truex would like to go out with a good finish, especially considering how bad this year has been for him.

Jamie McMurray (avg. fn. 15.4): Truex’s replacement in the No. 1 car doesn’t have quite as stellar a record at Homestead as his predecessor does, but he’s not a pushover, either. Since he became a full-time Sprint Cup driver in 2003, his average finish at Homestead is 14.3, and that’s dragged down by an engine failure in 2006. Look for McMurray, relieved at finally signing a contract for 2010, to perform well this weekend.

Bobby Labonte (avg. fn. 18.7): The only former Homestead winner in this bunch, having scored the victory in 2003, Labonte had top 10 finishes in four of his first five starts at the track. Since then, his record has declined, but that’s more of a testament to his Petty Enterprises cars being weak. Maybe Kevin Buckler‘s cars aren’t much better, but Labonte has gotten things out of those cars that David Gilliland could not (when he wasn’t starting and parking, that is). One can’t lose sight of the fact that Labonte led 174 laps the first time that the Cup cars came to Homestead.

Filed under: Homestead-Miami Speedway, One and Done NASCAR Fantasy Racing 

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Live NASCAR Fantasy Racing Live Chat Thursday 7PM ET: Ford 400

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by Charlie Turner

Thanks for stopping by OnPitRow.com and the Bench Racing with Steve and Charlie blog. The best NASCAR and IndyCar news and opinion, exclusive pictures and video. I'm Charlie Turner. Follow me on Twitter @onpitrow

November 18, 2009 4:14 pm UTC No Comments

Join us for our final weekly NASCAR fantasy racing live blog/chat session of 2009 this Thursday at 7 PM ET.

We’ll talk about the final race of the Sprint Cup season at Homestead Miami Speedway with Eric McClung. Eric authors our NASCAR fantasy racing preview every week and has an excellent record as a fantasy racing expert.

Leave your email in the box below and we will remind you right before the chat starts.

Filed under: Homestead-Miami Speedway, Live blogs, NASCAR, NASCAR Fantasy Gaming 

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