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Chase History: Texas Motor Speedway

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by Chris Leone, Special To NASCAR commentary and driver pictures, 2011 NASCAR schedule, video, Bench Racing With Steve and Charlie

I do weekly Fantasy Pick'Em columns here at OPR, as well as the occasional opinion and analysis piece. I also provide the IZOD IndyCar Series coverage. For more on that, head to my site, OpenWheelAmerica.com. My Twitter handle is @christopherlion.

November 6, 2011 12:15 pm CST No Comments

Texas Motor Speedway promoter extraordinaire Eddie Gossage loves a good head-to-head battle, especially in the Chase for the Sprint Cup. That’s what he hopes for between Carl Edwards and Tony Stewart, the top two remaining championship contenders, in today’s Texas race.

Ideally, Gossage would love to see the points lead change hands today. It’ll make the race one of the most interesting ones in the Chase, but mostly it’ll help him sell even more tickets to this race in the future. And, if it happens again, it’ll firmly entrench Texas as perhaps the most pivotal race in the Chase.

Remember what happened last season. Denny Hamlin took the win in this race after leading 31 laps, inheriting the points lead in a 47-point swing from Jimmie Johnson, who finished ninth. That’s roughly an 11-point swing under this year’s point system, which would be good enough to give Stewart the lead if he did the same thing.

Then again, perhaps that wouldn’t be such a good omen. The only driver to take the title after winning at Texas was Johnson in 2007 since this race was established in 2005. Edwards took the checkers in 2008, only to finish second in points; Hamlin did the same thing last year. Edwards was too far back in the Chase to catch Johnson, though he would have won the championship under a non-Chase format. Meanwhile, Hamlin blew it the next week at Phoenix and gave the point lead right back.

Whoever wins today, though, Gossage probably hopes they’re leaving with the points lead. Stewart could do it easily; Kevin Harvick, Brad Keselowski, and even spring Texas race winner Matt Kenseth could do it with a bit of luck. Today should be a Texas-sized shootout, and Gossage is loving every second of it.

Filed under: Carl Edwards, Chase for the Cup, Denny Hamlin, Texas Motor Speedway, Tony Stewart, jimmie johnson 

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Chase History: Martinsville Speedway

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by Chris Leone, Special To NASCAR commentary and driver pictures, 2011 NASCAR schedule, video, Bench Racing With Steve and Charlie

I do weekly Fantasy Pick'Em columns here at OPR, as well as the occasional opinion and analysis piece. I also provide the IZOD IndyCar Series coverage. For more on that, head to my site, OpenWheelAmerica.com. My Twitter handle is @christopherlion.

October 26, 2011 7:29 pm CDT No Comments

With the wild card race at Talladega Superspeedway now out of the way, the Sprint Cup Series now travels to the Martinsville Speedway for the seventh race of the Chase for the Sprint Cup. The two tracks couldn’t be more different, as we go from the two-car and pack racing common on high-banked superspeedways to the “rubbin’s racin’” mentality of a flat short track.

Chances are, one of three drivers will take the checkered flag this weekend - Jeff Gordon, Jimmie Johnson, or Denny Hamlin - but in a trying year for Hamlin, it seems unlikely that this will be the event to turn his Chase around. Johnson, on the other hand, seems more likely, having won Martinsville’s Chase race four times in five years between 2004 and 2008.

In fact, the 2006 win may have been the biggest turning point for Johnson in his first Chase title run. Johnson had finished second in the previous event at Charlotte, but was still seventh in points. But at Martinsville, Johnson scored his first win of the 2006 Chase, leapfrogging to third in points. In the same race, points leader Jeff Burton’s engine failure marked the beginning of the end of his title hopes, dropping him to fifth in points. (He would eventually finish seventh in the Chase.)

Last year, however, Martinsville proved more of a detriment for Johnson. He still finished fifth, but polesitter Hamlin took the lead on lap 471 of 500, for the first time since the start of the race, and took the victory. What was already a slim points lead shrunk even further, as Johnson’s 41 points on Hamlin before the race decreased to six. (Under the current points system, that’s about a one point lead.) Suddenly, the four-time defending champions appeared vulnerable; two weeks later, Hamlin held the points lead.

Martinsville, then, could prove a pivotal race for any driver who takes the victory. Matt Kenseth, Brad Keselowski, or Tony Stewart could take the victory and close in on Carl Edwards, or Kevin Harvick, Kyle Busch, or even Johnson could use a win (plus some tough luck for the top four) to propel themselves back into the title fight.

Filed under: Chase for the Cup, Denny Hamlin, Martinsville Speedway, jimmie johnson 

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Chase History: Dover International Speedway

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by Chris Leone, Special To NASCAR commentary and driver pictures, 2011 NASCAR schedule, video, Bench Racing With Steve and Charlie

I do weekly Fantasy Pick'Em columns here at OPR, as well as the occasional opinion and analysis piece. I also provide the IZOD IndyCar Series coverage. For more on that, head to my site, OpenWheelAmerica.com. My Twitter handle is @christopherlion.

September 28, 2011 1:05 pm CDT No Comments

Chad Knaus Jimmie Johnson Chandra and daughter on pit road Dover 10 bure

Chad Knaus Jimmie Johnson Chandra and daughter on pit road Dover 10 bure

One of the toughest tracks on the Sprint Cup schedule, the concrete Dover International Speedway - “The Monster Mile” - hosts the third round of this year’s Chase for the Sprint Cup, the AAA 400, this weekend. Right now, Tony Stewart is the points leader, holding a seven-marker advantage over second-place Kevin Harvick after scoring wins in both Chase races so far.

But when it comes to Dover, Stewart hasn’t won since sweeping the track in 2000. He came close in the spring 2009 race, only to be edged for the lead by Jimmie Johnson with three laps to go. His average finish at Dover in the seven Chase races is a so-so 15.3, but the Chase isn’t about solid points finishes, it’s about winning.

If recent history is to be trusted, in fact, this should be the track at which Johnson breaks out. Johnson, like Stewart, can boast a Dover sweep in the distant past (2002), but unlike Stewart, has tasted victory more recently. He’s won the past two fall Dover races (both from pole) and three of the past five at the track overall. He used last year’s victory to set him up to take the points lead from Denny Hamlin the next weekend at Kansas. The two would continue to swap the lead throughout the Chase, in one of the best battles in the format’s history.

Johnson’s career average finish of 9.6 is second best of all active Cup drivers, with only Carl Edwards‘ 7.6 a superior mark. Edwards only has one career win at Dover, however, which came during the 2007 season. The win, inherited when dominant teammate Matt Kenseth blew an engine, put Edwards within 28 points of leader Jeff Gordon; however, a late-race crash at Kansas put a major dent in his title hopes, and he wouldn’t win again that year.

Filed under: Carl Edwards, Chase for the Cup, Dover International Speedway, Tony Stewart, jimmie johnson 

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Fantasy Pick’Em: 2011 Pocono 500

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by Chris Leone, Special To NASCAR commentary and driver pictures, 2011 NASCAR schedule, video, Bench Racing With Steve and Charlie

I do weekly Fantasy Pick'Em columns here at OPR, as well as the occasional opinion and analysis piece. I also provide the IZOD IndyCar Series coverage. For more on that, head to my site, OpenWheelAmerica.com. My Twitter handle is @christopherlion.

June 9, 2011 6:12 pm CDT No Comments

Oh, god, Pocono. 500 miles of it. This weekend’s Sprint Cup race is going to feel like an even longer event than the Coca-Cola 600, and that’s saying something. A big, fast track, plus the scorching summer heat, should make Pocono one of the greatest tests of endurance on this year’s schedule, as it usually is.

More importantly, though, Pocono signals the start of the second half of the Sprint Cup “regular season,” where the top drivers will jostle for Chase positions. A solid performance is more important now than ever, as currently struggling teams look to establish momentum for the Race to the Chase and sneak in by virtue of race wins or even the lower part of the top 10 in points.

So, with that in mind, who looks good this weekend?

Denny Hamlin: Look, I may be feeling some of the heat stroke from Pocono already, but I’m not an idiot. Not only is Hamlin the sport’s best Pocono driver, he also fits that label of “struggling” (well, somewhat; they’ve begun to pick it up recently) and will probably need some race wins to guarantee himself a Chase spot. With all that in mind, there’s no better place for him to do it than Pocono, and probably no better driver to pick for the same reasons.

Tony Stewart: Smoke has always been pretty good at Pocono, but four finishes of third or better in his past five starts at the track may very well cement him as its elite driver as of late. One of those was a win in this same race, from the pole, two years ago. And with Stewart only up 11 points on teammate Ryan Newman for the final Chase spot, he, too, could use some good runs to give him breathing room.

Brian Vickers: Here’s an interesting pick. Vickers will either give you a fantastic finish (twice a runner-up at Pocono, four top five finishes in 12 starts) or a bum-out (four of his past six finishes were 21st or worse, although all four saw him stay on the lead lap). Adding to the drama is the fact that it’s been more than a year since he’s competed at the track, owing to last year’s blood clots keeping him out of the car. Regardless, while Vickers is a high-risk pick, he leaves open the potential for high reward as well.

Filed under: Brian Vickers, Denny Hamlin, NASCAR Fantasy Gaming, Pocono Raceway, Tony Stewart 

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Fantasy Pick’Em: 2011 Showtime Southern 500

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by Chris Leone, Special To NASCAR commentary and driver pictures, 2011 NASCAR schedule, video, Bench Racing With Steve and Charlie

I do weekly Fantasy Pick'Em columns here at OPR, as well as the occasional opinion and analysis piece. I also provide the IZOD IndyCar Series coverage. For more on that, head to my site, OpenWheelAmerica.com. My Twitter handle is @christopherlion.

May 6, 2011 12:08 pm CDT No Comments

What it do, folks? Sorry about the delay on this week’s fantasy blabbering - it’s term paper week at college, you understand. Thankfully, my hard work (cough) will pay off when I get to relax on Saturday night and watch the Showtime Southern 500 at the Lady in Black, Darlington Raceway.

Granted, it stunk when NASCAR ruined a bunch of traditions by getting rid of the Labor Day tradition that was the Southern 500, took away a race from one of the sport’s most famous tracks, and decided to run on Mother’s Day weekend. But the result - this race - has made for a spectacular event since day one.

But enough about that. You want to know who’s going to win. Well, I’ll see what I can do.

Kyle Busch: If it’s about momentum, Rowdy’s got it after that Richmond win. Leading 235 of 400 laps and winning the spring event there three years in a row is a great way to come into Darlington with your head held high. Busch has never won the Darlington race directly after winning Richmond, his lone victory at the track coming in 2008. But unless he gets snakebit (finishes of 37th in 2007 and 34th in 2009), he should run well.

Denny Hamlin: Hamlin’s career average finish at Darlington is a Jimmie Johnson-esque 6.6 in five starts, by far the best of all active drivers. He’s never finished worse than 13th, and won last year. So why am I ranking teammate Kyle Busch (average finish: 18.2) above Hamlin on the board this week? Because Hamlin’s had a rough year. Something with that team hasn’t been right since day one. Maybe it was the engine room explosion at Joe Gibbs Racing in the offseason; maybe it’s a hangover from a tough championship run that fell just short. Either way, I’m not sold… although he could easily prove me wrong.

Brad Keselowski: He’s had finishes of seventh and 12th in two Darlington starts. After last weekend, when Kurt Busch ripped his Penske Racing team a new one, you can expect everybody in that shop to give plenty of extra effort working on both cars to make sure that a weekend like that never happens again. They call Roger Penske “the Captain” for a reason - he simply refuses to accept failure. While Penske himself may be focusing on Indianapolis 500 preparations, you can bet that he’s instilled the fear of god almighty in his two Sprint Cup teams.

Filed under: Brad Kesolowski, Darlington Speedway, Denny Hamlin, Kyle Busch, NASCAR Fantasy Gaming 

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Fantasy Pick’Em: 2011 Goody’s Fast Relief 500

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by Chris Leone, Special To NASCAR commentary and driver pictures, 2011 NASCAR schedule, video, Bench Racing With Steve and Charlie

I do weekly Fantasy Pick'Em columns here at OPR, as well as the occasional opinion and analysis piece. I also provide the IZOD IndyCar Series coverage. For more on that, head to my site, OpenWheelAmerica.com. My Twitter handle is @christopherlion.

March 30, 2011 1:46 pm CDT No Comments

That’s right - Fantasy Pick’Em is back.

After getting my butt thoroughly kicked by school for the past six weeks - you know, to perfectly coincide with racing season - I’m feeling a bit like Rocky at the end of every Rocky movie - brains turned to mush, black eyes, bruises everywhere, generally in pain. But I like to think I’ve fought through the worst, and after making some savvy picks early in the season (and yes, I did call Trevor Bayne to win the Daytona 500), I’m back to ruin my reputation and good luck for the rest of the year.

So, three picks at Martinsville - but who?

Jeff Gordon: I saw Bob Pockrass make this pick on Twitter earlier today, saying he liked the combination of Gordon and Alan Gustafson at Martinsville. I can’t say I disagree. You only need look at the statistics to realize that Gordon was ripping off wins at Martinsville before Jimmie Johnson and Denny Hamlin started taking over at the track. Martinsville is a track where both driver and crew chief need to effectively manage the car, and I think Gustafson is as trustworthy as any crew chief in that department.

Denny Hamlin: After the engine woes at Joe Gibbs Racing over the past few weeks, you’d think this would be a counter-intuitive pick. I mean, the problem hasn’t been solved yet, and it won’t be considered as much until we stop seeing engine failures across the board. But Hamlin is a Virginia native and a Martinsville standout, and the folks at JGR are too good to stay down for long. This could very easily be the weekend where they begin to solve the problem.

Joey Logano: Wait, two Gibbs cars? Am I crazy? Maybe a little. (Remember. College. No sleep. Bad dieting. So on and so forth.) But consider the following - of active drivers at Martinsville, Logano has the fourth-best average finish, a 13.0, and a driver rating of 81.0, better than the ratings of four of the current top 12 drivers in points. And at 31st in owners points, the No. 20 team can’t afford to spend much more time in the back of the pack.

Filed under: Denny Hamlin, Jeff Gordon, Joey Logano, Martinsville Speedway, NASCAR Fantasy Gaming 

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