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Fantasy Pick’Em: 2010 Heluva Good! Sour Cream Dips 400

by Chris Leone, Special To NASCAR commentary and driver pictures, 2011 NASCAR schedule, video, Bench Racing With Steve and Charlie

I do weekly Fantasy Pick'Em columns here at OPR, as well as the occasional opinion and analysis piece. I also provide the IZOD IndyCar Series coverage. For more on that, head to my site, OpenWheelAmerica.com. My Twitter handle is @christopherlion.

June 10, 2010 12:55 pm UTC No Comments

Carl Edwards Pocono Raceway

The Sprint Cup Series makes its first trip of the season to the Michigan International Speedway this weekend for the Heluva Good! Sour Cream Dips 400. Mark Martin won this event last year, while Brian Vickers (get well soon) won the last Cup event at Michigan late last summer.

For the third weekend in a row, the Cup cars face a grueling endurance event. First came the Coca-Cola 600, the longest event of the year. Last week gave us 500 long miles at Pocono. Now, drivers head to one of the fastest tracks on the circuit, where pole speeds frequently flirt with 190 miles per hour.

So who looks good for this weekend’s tilt?

My personal pick is going to be Jeff Gordon. Last week I took Denny Hamlin as my lead driver, and he rewarded me with a victory, so I’m looking for Gordon to continue my streak. He has two wins and 22 top-10s in 34 career Michigan starts, and is one of only two active drivers with an average Michigan start in the single digits. Last year he finished second in both Michigan races.

My dark horse for the weekend will be Bill Elliott. The Wood Brothers only run a limited schedule nowadays with factory Ford backing, but you can bet that they’ll be looking to impress at the home track of the American manufacturers. Elliott’s Michigan record isn’t too shabby, either – seven wins and 29 top-10s in 59 starts. Both are tops among active drivers.

Who else looks good at Michigan?

I hesitate offering up a Carl Edwards pick, because he’s burned me every time I’ve suggested him all year. He’s done very little to suggest that he’s still the same driver who won nine races in 2008. But Edwards has two wins and 10 top-10s in only 11 Michigan starts. His 6.1 average finish at the track is by far the best of any active driver, nearly four spots better than second-best Matt Kenseth.

Of course, this also makes Kenseth a viable Michigan pick, his last win coming at the track in 2006. Michigan is owner Jack Roush’s home track, and he always does his best to take a win at the track each year. Last year was the first since 2001 in which a Roush car didn’t take the checkers in a Michigan Cup event, and you can bet that the Cat in the Hat will do everything he can to change that.

Finally, it’s time for Junior Nation to get on its feet, because Dale Jr. is my final pick of the weekend. Sure, his one win at the track (and only win in the No. 88) came on fuel mileage, but he has led at least one lap in eight of the last nine Michigan events. In that span, he has all four of his career top fives at the track, and has completed 1734 of a possible 1735 laps. Clearly he can take a car to the front and keep it in the hunt.

Filed under: Bill Elliott, Carl Edwards, Dale Earnhardt Jr., Jeff Gordon, Matt Kenseth, Michigan International Speedway, One and Done NASCAR Fantasy Racing

Tagged with: Bill Elliott, Carl Edwards, Dale Earnhardt Jr., Heluva Good Sour Cream Dips 400, Jeff Gordon, Matt Kenseth, Michigan International Speedway, One and Done NASCAR Fantasy Racing

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Fantasy Pick’Em: All-Star Edition

by Chris Leone, Special To NASCAR commentary and driver pictures, 2011 NASCAR schedule, video, Bench Racing With Steve and Charlie

May 21, 2010 12:14 am UTC 3 Comments

Is everybody ready for this year’s Sprint All-Star Challenge?

We’re back down to about a 20-car field, the way it normally was when I was growing up in the heyday of NASCAR. The smaller field gives us the potential for a lot more fireworks, and an exciting main event.

Just as exciting, though, will be the Sprint Showdown, which will feature a slew of NASCAR’s finest that have been mired in winless droughts as of late. Carl Edwards, Greg Biffle, Clint Bowyer, Jeff Burton, and Martin Truex Jr. are among the drivers to have to line up in an inflated Showdown field this year.

This week’s column is going to be different than my normal fantasy racing column. Instead of offering five picks, I’m going to pick the Showdown and all four segments individually. Ready? Here goes:

Clint Bowyer will win the Sprint Showdown, while Carl Edwards will take the fan vote. The RCR cars and the Roush Fenway cars are miles ahead of anybody else in the Showdown field, and I can see the two teams fighting it out at the end for the win. A late wreck caused by a desperate backmarker will bunch the two teams up in the closing laps. In the end, Burton will push Bowyer ahead. (For the record, Robby Gordon would win the fan vote if not for so many big names in the Showdown.)

Edwards will pay back his loving support group by winning the first segment. The Hendrick cars will be the best by far on the mandatory 25-lap pit stop, but Edwards will use up his car early to take the early honors. Jimmie Johnson will pass his championship rival from 2008 in segment two to hold the point, but will dare not to make the optional pit stop, one of only a handful of drivers to decide not to do so.

Jeff Gordon will take advantage of his Hendrick teammate’s incorrect decision and blow by to take segment three, with Kevin Harvick and Matt Kenseth hot on his tail. The pit stop before segment four won’t produce many changes to the running order, but it will set up a shootout between Gordon, Harvick, Kenseth, Johnson, and Dale Earnhardt Jr. for all the marbles.

Inevitably, somebody is going to tear up some sheet metal during the final segment. Pride will be hurt, tempers will flare, and some pretty good cars are going to lose a shot at a million dollars. But Earnhardt Jr., ten years removed from his first All-Star win, will find a way to weave through the wreckage and put his No. 88 in the winner’s circle at the end of segment four. What better way to honor the Intimidator on the weekend of his Hall of Fame induction?

That’s all I’ve got. Sounds like a hell of a time, doesn’t it? Now we just need to make it happen. Chop chop, boys – make me look good!

Filed under: Dale Earnhardt Jr., Lowes Motor Speedway, One and Done NASCAR Fantasy Racing

Tagged with: Charlotte Motor Speedway, Dale Earnhardt Jr., One and Done NASCAR Fantasy Racing, Sprint Cup All Star Race

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Fantasy Pick’Em: 2010 Aaron’s 499

by Chris Leone, Special To NASCAR commentary and driver pictures, 2011 NASCAR schedule, video, Bench Racing With Steve and Charlie

April 21, 2010 1:47 pm UTC No Comments

The Aaron’s 499 at Talladega Superspeedway will mark the ninth race of this year’s Sprint Cup Series season, and one of the most difficult to predict in fantasy racing. Anybody who’s ever seen a superspeedway race knows that the “big one” is lurking around every corner, and can knock out many good cars in less time than it takes to change four tires and refuel.

Last year, Brad Keselowski turned Carl Edwards in the tri-oval on the final lap to secure his first career victory. It was a scary moment for Edwards, as his car wound up touching the catchfence in mid-air, injuring eight fans, and he hasn’t won since. Despite the safety improvements made to the cars, these sorts of wrecks are always possible, and are more common at the big tracks than anywhere else.

In other words, this weekend is a fantasy crapshoot. To that end, let’s have some fun.

Joey Logano is my pick for this weekend’s race. Keep in mind that we had a surprise winner in Keselowski last year, a definition that Logano would certainly fit. He led laps in both Talladega races last year, finishing 9th in the spring and 3rd in the fall. His team has also gotten it together this year, and they’re legitimate Chase contenders. Hey, it’s worth a shot.

My dark horse pick for the weekend is none other than Michael Waltrip. Competing in only his second race of the season, this will mark the first time in months that Prism Motorsports looks to actually complete the full race with one of its cars, the No. 55 Aaron’s Toyota. Waltrip drives for the race sponsor and has won at the track before. Again, it’s worth a shot, isn’t it?

Three more, all of whom will probably fall victim to bad luck because I picked them:

Hey, remember when Dale Earnhardt Jr. won four Talladega races in a row? He’s led laps in 18 of his 20 career Talladega starts, too. He was pretty strong at Daytona at the beginning of the year, and he’s pretty overdue for a win. His Talladega luck is also pretty good – of his five DNFs at the track, three were due to engine failures, and those were DEI powerplants, not the Hendrick ones he currently receives.

Picking at Talladega is all about luck. Jeff Burton seems to have some of that at Talladega. He’s led at least one lap in six of the past seven Talladega events, including in each of the past four, a span in which he has finished no worse than 12th. Burton has the patience to let the race come to him and the luck to avoid wrecks; only two of his five DNFs were due to accidents, and they came in 2005 and his 1994 track debut.

Finally, Jamie McMurray is currently one of the best restrictor-plate drivers on the circuit, winning the past two races under the format. Jamie Mac has led in six of his past nine Talladega starts. He does, however, have some poor luck at the track, crashing out in three of the past eight events. Choose wisely.

Filed under: Dale Earnhardt Jr., Jamie McMurray, Jeff Burton, Joey Logano, Michael Waltrip, One and Done NASCAR Fantasy Racing, Talladega Superspeedway

Tagged with: Aaron's 499, Dale Earnhardt Jr., Jamie McMurray, Jeff Burton, Joey Logano, Michael Waltrip, One and Done NASCAR Fantasy Racing, Talladega Superspeedway

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Fantasy Pick’Em: 2010 Food City 500

by Chris Leone, Special To NASCAR commentary and driver pictures, 2011 NASCAR schedule, video, Bench Racing With Steve and Charlie

March 17, 2010 3:20 pm UTC No Comments

With four races in the books, the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series will head to Bristol Motor Speedway for this weekend’s Food City 500. Kurt Busch will attempt to follow up his win at Atlanta two weeks ago by winning this race for the fifth time.

Hope everybody’s all rested up after the off weekend, but it’s high time that we get into the swing of things and kick this season into full gear. This will be the last race that 2009 owner’s points determine the cars locked into the starting field for this season, so expect some backmarkers to try and push towards the front.

My pick for the weekend stays in the Busch family – I’m picking Kyle to win. Easy, I know. But in his last three Bristol starts, he has accumulated an average finish of 1.3 while leading 861 of a possible 1503 laps. That’s over 57% of his past three Bristol starts. Also keep in mind that Rowdy has led a lap in every Bristol race dating back to the spring of 2006, and has led in double digits in five of those eight events.

My dark horse for the week has to be Marcos Ambrose. Still looking for his first top-10 of the season, mired at 28th in points due to DNFs at Daytona and California, Ambrose has finishes of 10th and 3rd at Bristol in Cup cars. Bristol is known as a track of heavy beating and banging, as are the V8 Supercars that Ambrose drove in Australia before coming stateside.

Three more, as per tradition:

Kurt Busch. I’ve discovered over the years that a solid projection of a driver’s skill at any once track is the amount of top-10s he accumulates. If, over a career of decent length, he finishes in the top 10 about half the time, he is usually judged as a star at that given track. That would be Busch at Bristol… oh, and the five career wins there help too.

Dale Earnhardt Jr. has been decent at Bristol since joining Hendrick Motorsports, though it was mostly his work with Dale Earnhardt Inc. that currently gives him the sixth best average finish at Bristol of all active drivers. He’s also been fast for much of the year, with an average start of 8.5. Qualifying up front at such a small track gives drivers an inherent advantage, not only because leaders can catch lapped traffic quickly, but also because of their better pit selection – though that mattered more when Bristol separated its backstretch pits from its frontstretch ones.

Finally, let’s not forget that Kevin Harvick has a strong Bristol record. While he only has one win, the current series points leader has 11 top-10s in 18 career starts. Happy’s also in the best equipment he’s had in years, and there’s no reason to expect things to drop off now.

Filed under: Bristol Motor Speedway, Kyle Busch, One and Done NASCAR Fantasy Racing

Tagged with: Bristol Motor Speedway, Dale Earnhardt Jr., Fantasy Pick'Em, Food City 500, Kevin Harvick, Kurt Busch, Kyle Busch, Marcos Ambrose, Sprint Cup Series

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Fantasy Pick’Em: 2010 Kobalt Tools 500

by Chris Leone, Special To NASCAR commentary and driver pictures, 2011 NASCAR schedule, video, Bench Racing With Steve and Charlie

March 4, 2010 2:05 am UTC 2 Comments

Three races into the season, and the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series heads to the Atlanta Motor Speedway for the Kobalt Tools 500. Jimmie Johnson, sponsored by Kobalt Tools in his Cup efforts, will attempt to win his third consecutive race this weekend… and with the old formalities down, let me tell everybody that it’s my midterm week here at school, and combined with reading too many sarcastic IndyCar blogs in preparation for that season, I’m going to be a little more bitingly sarcastic than usual. Strap in, folks.

Speaking of winning, guess who picked the winner last week? That’s right. I called him an easy pick, but sometimes it’s worth it to take the easy money (and the gift win)… especially when the rest of your picks were relative duds. Jeff Burton wound up 11th, Kyle Busch was 15th, and Denny Hamlin finished 19th, while my dark horse, Bobby Labonte, was 51 laps down in 38th.

I would love to pick Johnson again this weekend, but my conscience tells me to be a little more interesting. Fair enough. How about Jeff Gordon? 23 top-fives in 35 Atlanta starts, with four wins, and a dominant car last weekend in Vegas suggest that the DuPont team may be a force both this weekend and beyond.

(For the record, if Johnson wins this week, I will attempt to write some revisionist history by suggesting I picked the 48 this week and the 24 last week, all in the name of sounding smart. This is what happens when you write a fantasy racing column for too long and want to finally sound smart.)

As for a dark horse, how about A.J. Allmendinger? Last weekend was a struggle for sure, but the ‘Dinger heads to the best track on which he has started more than two races. He’s been consistent, if nothing else, with all four of his finishes between 14th and 20th. And while that’s not “race-winning dark horse” material, it does seem like a gimme for a solid, reasonable finish, and I’ll take what I can get. Perhaps we simply have varying definitions of “dark horse.”

Three more for all you skeptics:

Jimmie Johnson. There. I said it. It’s 1 AM and I’m very tired. Next.

In what is sure to raise a cheer from the majority of people who read this column, my next pick is none other than Dale Earnhardt Jr., the second best active driver at Atlanta (behind his superhuman teammate, of course). Yes, he hasn’t been the same driver the past two weekends as he was at Daytona, but come on, the curse of the last Hendrick car can’t apply every weekend. Even Casey Mears won in a fourth Hendrick vehicle, and Casey Mears hasn’t accomplished half of what Dale Jr. has.

For my final pick, I’m going to go with Joey Logano. This has nothing to do with his Atlanta track record in Cup, which is pretty abysmal. It has everything to do, however, with the fact that eighth in points is the highest he’s ever been in Cup. Sliced Bread is finally starting to really get things together with the No. 20 team, and he could do what David Ragan almost did in 2008 by making the Chase in his sophomore year.

Filed under: A J Allmendinger, Atlanta Motor Speedway, Dale Earnhardt Jr., Jeff Gordon, jimmie johnson, Joey Logano

Tagged with: A.J. Allmendinger, Atlanta Motor Speedway, Dale Earnhardt Jr., Jeff Gordon, jimmie johnson, Joey Logano, Kobalt Tools 500

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Double J and The Luck of A Golden Horseshoe

by Clance' McClannahan, Special To NASCAR commentary and driver pictures, 2011 NASCAR schedule, video, Bench Racing With Steve and Charlie

Clance' McClannahan, famous author behind The Church of The Great Oval and also one of the much appreciated Contributing Authors at Thunder Lounge.

February 27, 2010 12:04 am UTC 1 Comment

How much does luck really have to play in NASCAR? Auto Club Speedway was a perfect example of both good luck, bad luck, skill and strategy.

Race Day at ACS started out cloudy, with the threat of rain looming overhead in in the future. Lovely Katharine McPhee, Season 5 American Idol runner-up, performed the National Anthem, after stating “I’ve never watched a NASCAR game before.” Personally, I am really glad she said that prior to the first inning, or it might have been embarrassing for her later.

Andy Garcia was able to give the command. “ Gentlemen, start your engines!” and still be politically correct.

Pole sitter Jamie Mac led the race for about 5 seconds, and then Juan Pablo Montoya politely said “Excuse me?”, and took the lead. If you would reach far back into your memory…(I mean, it’s a stretch for me), you will remember that JPM led 60 laps at ACS in October, and in one truly horrendous moment, lost that race. Juan Pablo Montoya meant serious business and opened up a lead of more than 3 seconds by Lap 12. By Lap 29, Jimmie Johnson’s good luck began to show, and the 42 car’s not so good 30th lap, gave him a brush with the wall. Soon after…it was Good vs. Bad for JPM, Kasey Kahne and a few others. Namely Dale (**NOTE to Jr. Nation: Dale doesn’t want to be called Jr. or June Bug, anymore).

In the meantime, a war was beginning to rage. Kevin Harvick and Jimmie Johnson had begun the battle that would continue throughout the race, which culminated in one of the finest moments in NASCAR History.

Lap 97 began to get a little more interesting. Now we will get into the good luck, bad luck, strategy (?) syndrome that happenedthat day.

Martin Truex Jr. loses power. Later, Martin Truex Jr’s engine blows.
JPM begins to battle with Jeff Gordon for 5th position. Harvick and Johnson continue to dance the Flamenco (to impress Juan Pablo Montoya) for 1st and 2nd, not being able to decide who would lead and who would follow.

In one of the most endearing and heart breaking moments of the race, Kasey Kahne, being conscientious of the bleak economy, decided he would help out some poor souls, who needed to make some money to feed their kids, by making sure they had jobs replacing the sod he tore up.
Ryan Newman’s engine blew up. DNF. Again. JPM, looking very competitive, was out of contention once again, after a great 140 laps. It also, was due to another kaboom of a large quantity of moving parts, critical to the car continuing to run..

Kevin Harvick discovered that one of Jamie Mac’s pit crew has a part time job with Cirque du Soleil. Scary.

Then there was Dale Earnhardt Jr. It seems like the last few years, if it’s going to happen to someone it will be Dale Jr. Personally, I don’t think he has any better or worse luck than many driver’s. I think his worst luck is the scrutiny he is constantly under. Much more than other driver’s. Broken Axle. Axle Broken. Race over for the 88.

Jimmie Johnson seemed to be going backwards for a small moment in time. Then… From out of the blue…comes JJ again. Jamie Mac, startled, said “”How can he be leading? “He was on pit road, wasn’t he?!!”
Why yes, he was. Double J won. 48/48.
Luck? Strategy? All of the above?

Kevin Harvick , at the end of the race, summed it all up, in one sentence. Possibly one of the finest quotes in NASCAR History. I am honored to have been able to do small tribute to that little quip at The Church.
“They have a golden horseshoe stuck up their ass.”
…And that, Dear Fans, was the finest finish to a race I have seen since the Daytona 500.

*What wondrous events shall LVMS bring us this weekend? Aw…the suspense is killing me!

Filed under: Auto Club Speedway, Dale Earnhardt Jr., Danica Patrick, Diversity and NASCAR, Jamie McMurray, Jeff Gordon, jimmie johnson, Juan Pablo Montoya, Kasey Kahne, Las Vegas Motor Speedway, Martin Truex Jr., NASCAR, NASCAR Conspiracies, Ryan Newman