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Fantasy Pick’Em: 2011 Aaron’s 499

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by Chris Leone, Special To NASCAR commentary and driver pictures, 2011 NASCAR schedule, video, Bench Racing With Steve and Charlie

I do weekly Fantasy Pick'Em columns here at OPR, as well as the occasional opinion and analysis piece. I also provide the IZOD IndyCar Series coverage. For more on that, head to my site, OpenWheelAmerica.com. My Twitter handle is @christopherlion.

April 13, 2011 11:23 am UTC No Comments

Before you even read another word of this column, keep the following in mind. We’re trying to predict fantasy NASCAR at a restrictor-plate superspeedway. There is literally no rhyme or reason to this whatsoever. There will almost undoubtedly be a giant accident or three that will eliminate 20 cars from contention, and more likely than not the following three drivers will all be involved.

That being said, let’s start the guesswork.

Look, nobody predicted that Trevor Bayne would win the Daytona 500 (except, well, for me… and way to drop the timestamp, Twitter). Nobody predicted Brad Keselowski to win at Talladega in a Phoenix Racing car two years ago, either. That’s how much of a crapshoot restrictor-plate events are. They’re the great equalizer – 36 races on these tracks would likely produce 36 different winners.

It’s not about speed, it’s about survival. But these three are generally good at it. You know how it goes – my pick first, then an alternate, then my dark horse. Don’t be totally shocked.

Carl Edwards: Edwards has been the strongest, most consistent driver in the sport thus far this year. That’s probably going to be more of a curse than a blessing this weekend, as you think that bad luck is going to have to get to him eventually. You also wonder, after the wreck in 2009 that saw his car go flying, if Edwards has that nagging conservatism in him on restrictor plate tracks. But that conservatism might help him if it causes him to stay way back of the wrecks and make it to the final few laps.

Brad Keselowski: Keselowski’s actually got three top-10s in four Talladega starts, including the win in his track debut, giving him a 13.2 average finish that tops all active drivers. Consistency is a difficult concept at Talladega, but Keselowski’s as good as any.

Trevor Bayne: Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice… well, the point is NOT to fool me twice. Even if you think Bayne’s got more Michael Waltrip in him than Jeff Gordon – and I think you’re wrong if you do – some drivers are just incredible on the restrictor plate tracks, and for all we know, Bayne will be one of them throughout his career.

Filed under: Brad Kesolowski, Carl Edwards, NASCAR Fantasy Gaming, Talladega Superspeedway, Trevor Bayne 

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2012, I mean, 2011 NASCAR Astro-Predictions

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by Clance' McClannahan, Special To NASCAR commentary and driver pictures, 2011 NASCAR schedule, video, Bench Racing With Steve and Charlie

Clance' McClannahan, famous author behind The Church of The Great Oval and also one of the much appreciated Contributing Authors at Thunder Lounge.

January 25, 2011 11:24 am UTC 2 Comments

2012,  I mean 2011 is a very special year, both Numerologically and Astrologically.

Are you curious about how your driver is going to do? Is Jimmie Johnson going to win again? How will Dale Jr. fare? Tony Stewart has already started his year a bit aggressively…Will Smoke be smoking hot in 2012? I mean, 2011? Will Brooklyn’s affect on new Daddy Ryan Newman change the way he drives? What about Kyle Busch, Brad Keselowski, and Carl Edwards?  Will they continue to drive as phenomenally, now that they have had to choose which series they will earn point in? Will the feuds continue?

I dare YOU to use my prediction’s in your Fantasy Racing.

I dare ME to remember to play.

I dare Charlie to beat me.

I dare Steve to prove he is not an Idiot.

I dare ALL the Stat guys to a challenge of accuracy.

Stats vs. ‘Scope’s.

2011, I mean 2010, brought us some of the most exciting racing in years. Will the changes in NASCAR rules, affect the excitement for the fans, or dampen it?  Will it be possible that actually winning races will matter?

We will be taking a look at all the full time NASCAR Driver’s for the first six months of the season tomorrow. I will also be looking at the year and make my predictions as to who may be the 2012 NASCAR Sprint Cup Champion. I have to do it early, so no one can say I cheat. Oops. 2011. So far this year I am losing in the accuracy challenge. By a year. I was spot on last year…

Well, not quite. Only 97%.

It’s tough to be a Goddess. ~ Me.

WTH?

Filed under: Nascaholics, NASCAR, NASCAR Astro-Predictions, NASCAR Fantasy Gaming, NASCAR Predictions 

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Fantasy Pick’Em: 2010 AAA 400

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by Chris Leone, Special To NASCAR commentary and driver pictures, 2011 NASCAR schedule, video, Bench Racing With Steve and Charlie

I do weekly Fantasy Pick'Em columns here at OPR, as well as the occasional opinion and analysis piece. I also provide the IZOD IndyCar Series coverage. For more on that, head to my site, OpenWheelAmerica.com. My Twitter handle is @christopherlion.

September 23, 2010 8:12 am UTC No Comments

This weekend’s AAA 400 at Dover International Speedway marks the second of 10 races in the Chase for the Sprint Cup. Dominated last year by Jimmie Johnson, it will be the second consecutive race on a one-mile oval, although unlike New Hampshire the Dover track is heavily banked.

Clint Bowyer shocked us all by winning last weekend’s race at Loudon, but the news that his team altered rear end parts may have dried up all hope for that team. Bowyer’s whopping 150-point penalty basically makes it as if he finished last in the race, and puts him back in 12th in the Chase standings.

Yet again, we’ll stick with the tradition of picking one Chase driver as our lead driver each race in the Chase, and not re-using them for the duration of the event. This means Denny Hamlin (second place last weekend) can’t be my lead pick. So who will be this weekend? And who else looks good at Dover?

I’m going to go with Carl Edwards this time around. While Roush Fenway is struggling in the Chase standings, with all of its three candidates in the bottom half of the standings, Edwards showed a lot in the early to middle stages at Loudon. At Dover, his 7.9 average finish makes him the only driver to keep that stat in the single digits. Might as well use him up while he’s hot.

As for a dark horse pick, consider semi-local boy Martin Truex Jr., the New Jersey native who picked up his first career Sprint Cup win at the Monster Mile. He won the pole for the Dover spring race and has posted a solid 14.9 average finish, buoyed by three top-10s.

Three more for the road:

I’ll state once more that I want to save Jimmie Johnson for the end of the Chase (or as close to it as I can), but he’s statistically the second best finisher at Dover behind Edwards. His 10.2 comes from a magnificent five wins in 17 starts, while he has led at least 100 laps six times (including in each of the past three Dover events). Solid? I think so.

Next up, Greg Biffle hasn’t failed to complete a lap at Dover since the fall of 2005. Even then, that was a single lap. In that stretch of nine races since, Biffle has scored one of his two Dover wins and eight top-10s, with a worst finish of 13th. Despite Roush’s uncertainty after their New Hampshire runs, Biffle’s always a strong Dover contender.

Finally, for a left-field pick, consider Brad Keselowski. Last week’s pole winner has a strong Dover record in the Nationwide Series, scoring a victory in the spring of last year that helped propel his rise to Sprint Cup. Since joining JR Motorsports in that series, and now driving for Penske Racing, he has finished no worse than seventh in six Dover starts.

Filed under: Dover International Speedway, One and Done NASCAR Fantasy Racing 

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Fantasy Pick’Em: 2010 Carfax 400

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by Chris Leone, Special To NASCAR commentary and driver pictures, 2011 NASCAR schedule, video, Bench Racing With Steve and Charlie

I do weekly Fantasy Pick'Em columns here at OPR, as well as the occasional opinion and analysis piece. I also provide the IZOD IndyCar Series coverage. For more on that, head to my site, OpenWheelAmerica.com. My Twitter handle is @christopherlion.

August 12, 2010 11:56 am UTC 2 Comments

Dale Earnhardt Jr Carl Edwards and Bill Elliott at MIS

Dale Earnhardt Jr Carl Edwards and Bill Elliott at MIS

Michigan International Speedway plays host to the Carfax 400, this weekend’s Sprint Cup Series event. Ir’s the track’s second Cup race this year, and with only a few races left before the Chase, it’s important for those bubble drivers to have a strong performance.

Last year, Brian Vickers finished a streak of three consecutive Michigan poles with a victory that also proved his fifth consecutive Michigan top-10. The win helped propel him into the Chase, and while his luck may have gone south from there, it doesn’t discount the importance of Michigan to his season.

So who looks good this weekend?

Carl Edwards has, by far, the best average finish of all active drivers at Michigan, an astounding 6.6. He’s also seen some more kick in his Roush Fenway Racing cars the past couple of weekends. Will this be the race where Edwards finally kicks his losing streak?

My weekend dark horse has to be Bill Elliott, a seven-time Michigan winner who usually adds this race to his limited schedule with the Wood Brothers every year. Michigan is the home track for the three American manufacturers in NASCAR, and the Woods, longtime Ford supporters, run both races at the track every year.

Three more, because it’s just not the same without them:

Jeff Gordon, who just became a dad again this week (congrats!), has the third-best Michigan record of any active driver, with two wins and 23 top-10s in 35 career starts. The past three races have seen finishes of second, second, and fourth, suggesting that Gordon almost has this track figured out. A telling statistic is that 18 of those top-10s are finishes of fifth or better, meaning Gordon can usually find his way to the front.

Greg Biffle broke Roush’s losing streak two weeks ago at Pocono, and the two-time former Michigan winner will look to score another victory for his injured owner this weekend. Biffle’s last six Michigan races have been a mixed bag – three top-10s, three mid-pack finishes – but those don’t take away from his two consecutive Michigan wins in 2004-05, or the fact that he led in six of his first seven Michigan starts. With a little luck, he can get back to the winner’s circle this weekend.

Finally, Kasey Kahne must be breathing a sigh of relief now that his 2011 plans are finalized. That new sense of relief may allow him to go out this weekend and show Team Red Bull, his new team and defending winners of this event, why they got him. Kahne is very hot or cold at Michigan – five finishes outside the top 20 – but when he’s on, he’s on: all six of his top-10s were also top five finishes, and he won from the pole in June of 2006.

Filed under: Michigan International Speedway 

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Fantasy Pick’Em: 2010 Heluva Good! Sour Cream Dips 400

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by Chris Leone, Special To NASCAR commentary and driver pictures, 2011 NASCAR schedule, video, Bench Racing With Steve and Charlie

I do weekly Fantasy Pick'Em columns here at OPR, as well as the occasional opinion and analysis piece. I also provide the IZOD IndyCar Series coverage. For more on that, head to my site, OpenWheelAmerica.com. My Twitter handle is @christopherlion.

June 10, 2010 12:55 pm UTC No Comments

Carl Edwards Pocono Raceway

Carl Edwards Pocono Raceway

The Sprint Cup Series makes its first trip of the season to the Michigan International Speedway this weekend for the Heluva Good! Sour Cream Dips 400. Mark Martin won this event last year, while Brian Vickers (get well soon) won the last Cup event at Michigan late last summer.

For the third weekend in a row, the Cup cars face a grueling endurance event. First came the Coca-Cola 600, the longest event of the year. Last week gave us 500 long miles at Pocono. Now, drivers head to one of the fastest tracks on the circuit, where pole speeds frequently flirt with 190 miles per hour.

So who looks good for this weekend’s tilt?

My personal pick is going to be Jeff Gordon. Last week I took Denny Hamlin as my lead driver, and he rewarded me with a victory, so I’m looking for Gordon to continue my streak. He has two wins and 22 top-10s in 34 career Michigan starts, and is one of only two active drivers with an average Michigan start in the single digits. Last year he finished second in both Michigan races.

My dark horse for the weekend will be Bill Elliott. The Wood Brothers only run a limited schedule nowadays with factory Ford backing, but you can bet that they’ll be looking to impress at the home track of the American manufacturers. Elliott’s Michigan record isn’t too shabby, either – seven wins and 29 top-10s in 59 starts. Both are tops among active drivers.

Who else looks good at Michigan?

I hesitate offering up a Carl Edwards pick, because he’s burned me every time I’ve suggested him all year. He’s done very little to suggest that he’s still the same driver who won nine races in 2008. But Edwards has two wins and 10 top-10s in only 11 Michigan starts. His 6.1 average finish at the track is by far the best of any active driver, nearly four spots better than second-best Matt Kenseth.

Of course, this also makes Kenseth a viable Michigan pick, his last win coming at the track in 2006. Michigan is owner Jack Roush’s home track, and he always does his best to take a win at the track each year. Last year was the first since 2001 in which a Roush car didn’t take the checkers in a Michigan Cup event, and you can bet that the Cat in the Hat will do everything he can to change that.

Finally, it’s time for Junior Nation to get on its feet, because Dale Jr. is my final pick of the weekend. Sure, his one win at the track (and only win in the No. 88) came on fuel mileage, but he has led at least one lap in eight of the last nine Michigan events. In that span, he has all four of his career top fives at the track, and has completed 1734 of a possible 1735 laps. Clearly he can take a car to the front and keep it in the hunt.

Filed under: Bill Elliott, Carl Edwards, Dale Earnhardt Jr., Jeff Gordon, Matt Kenseth, Michigan International Speedway, One and Done NASCAR Fantasy Racing 

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Fantasy Pick’Em: 2010 Autism Speaks 400

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by Chris Leone, Special To NASCAR commentary and driver pictures, 2011 NASCAR schedule, video, Bench Racing With Steve and Charlie

I do weekly Fantasy Pick'Em columns here at OPR, as well as the occasional opinion and analysis piece. I also provide the IZOD IndyCar Series coverage. For more on that, head to my site, OpenWheelAmerica.com. My Twitter handle is @christopherlion.

May 12, 2010 11:04 pm UTC No Comments

The Monster Mile, Dover International Speedway, will play host to this weekend’s Sprint Cup Series race, the Autism Speaks 400. Taken last year by Jimmie Johnson after an impressive pass of Tony Stewart with three laps to go, this is the last points-paying event before the All-Star festivities at Charlotte.

One of this week’s biggest headlines has been Rick Hendrick’s claim that Joe Gibbs Racing has “lapped” his Hendrick Motorsports team. This isn’t the case at Dover, however; three Hendrick drivers have an average finish at least four points better than that of Kyle Busch, Gibbs’ top Dover driver, whose average is a middling 16.9. Team leader Denny Hamlin has taken the fight to Johnson elsewhere this season, but horrible luck at Dover has given him four finishes outside of the top 35 in eight starts.

So if not the Gibbs drivers, who do you pick at Dover?

I’m going with Carl Edwards. Assuming that he won’t visit victory lane ever again is kind of a stretch, even if he hasn’t been a serious threat since that wild ride at Talladega last year. Edwards is exceptional at Dover, his average finish of 7.9 in 11 starts buoyed by seven top-10s and a win. Those other four races? No worse than 18th. He hasn’t failed to complete a lap in his last nine starts.

Martin Truex Jr. is my dark horse, though he’s certainly a middling driver at the track, with the lone exception of his dominant spring 2007 win. Three top-10s are offset by three finishes outside of the top 20, for an average finish of 15.2. It’s decent, but you can find better; then again, Truex’s team has used their “NAPA Know How” to put together a string of solid runs recently, putting them a mere 16 points out of the Chase. A Dover win could propel Truex into the playoffs just as it did three years ago.

Three more concrete warriors to consider:

Johnson has five wins in 16 Dover starts. That’s equal to the amount of sub-10th place finishes he has, and even then, three of those were top-15s. He also swept the track last year, leading 298 and 271 laps respectively on the way to his two victories. I’m not picking him for the sake of remaining interesting.

Jeff Gordon is long overdue for a win, and everybody knows it – the DuPont team should not be 40 races between trips to victory lane right now, especially given how strong they’ve been the past two weeks. Gordon’s accrued four wins and 21 top-10s in 34 Dover starts, though three of the wins came in 1995 and 1996, and only one came in a 400-mile event. The past four years have seen Gordon finish 12th or better in seven out of eight starts, with a total of 114 laps led.

Finally, four-time Dover winner Mark “The Kid” Martin gets a look for the consistency he’s shown at Dover since 2004. He doesn’t lead many laps, and hasn’t led in triple digits since last millennium, but going to Dover both times every year (even in his limited schedules) has kept him sharp at the oval. In 10 of his last 12 starts, he’s been in the top ten when the checkered flag fell; the other finishes were 14th and 23rd, not too shabby. Martin was the runner-up in the fall race, something he’s done seven times at the track.

Filed under: Carl Edwards, Dover International Speedway, Jeff Gordon, jimmie johnson, Mark Martin, Martin Truex Jr., One and Done NASCAR Fantasy Racing, Sprint Cup Series 

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