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Fantasy Pick’Em: 2010 Carfax 400

by Chris Leone, Special To NASCAR commentary and pictures,2010 NASCAR schedule,NASCAR video, Bench Racing With Steve and Charlie

I do weekly Fantasy Pick'Em columns here at OPR, as well as the occasional opinion and analysis piece. I also provide the IZOD IndyCar Series coverage. For more on that, head to my site, OpenWheelAmerica.com. My Twitter handle is @christopherlion.

August 12, 2010 11:56 am CDT 2 Comments

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Dale Earnhardt Jr Carl Edwards and Bill Elliott at MIS

Michigan International Speedway plays host to the Carfax 400, this weekend’s Sprint Cup Series event. Ir’s the track’s second Cup race this year, and with only a few races left before the Chase, it’s important for those bubble drivers to have a strong performance.

Last year, Brian Vickers finished a streak of three consecutive Michigan poles with a victory that also proved his fifth consecutive Michigan top-10. The win helped propel him into the Chase, and while his luck may have gone south from there, it doesn’t discount the importance of Michigan to his season.

So who looks good this weekend?

Carl Edwards has, by far, the best average finish of all active drivers at Michigan, an astounding 6.6. He’s also seen some more kick in his Roush Fenway Racing cars the past couple of weekends. Will this be the race where Edwards finally kicks his losing streak?

My weekend dark horse has to be Bill Elliott, a seven-time Michigan winner who usually adds this race to his limited schedule with the Wood Brothers every year. Michigan is the home track for the three American manufacturers in NASCAR, and the Woods, longtime Ford supporters, run both races at the track every year.

Three more, because it’s just not the same without them:

Jeff Gordon, who just became a dad again this week (congrats!), has the third-best Michigan record of any active driver, with two wins and 23 top-10s in 35 career starts. The past three races have seen finishes of second, second, and fourth, suggesting that Gordon almost has this track figured out. A telling statistic is that 18 of those top-10s are finishes of fifth or better, meaning Gordon can usually find his way to the front.

Greg Biffle broke Roush’s losing streak two weeks ago at Pocono, and the two-time former Michigan winner will look to score another victory for his injured owner this weekend. Biffle’s last six Michigan races have been a mixed bag – three top-10s, three mid-pack finishes – but those don’t take away from his two consecutive Michigan wins in 2004-05, or the fact that he led in six of his first seven Michigan starts. With a little luck, he can get back to the winner’s circle this weekend.

Finally, Kasey Kahne must be breathing a sigh of relief now that his 2011 plans are finalized. That new sense of relief may allow him to go out this weekend and show Team Red Bull, his new team and defending winners of this event, why they got him. Kahne is very hot or cold at Michigan – five finishes outside the top 20 – but when he’s on, he’s on: all six of his top-10s were also top five finishes, and he won from the pole in June of 2006.

Filed under: Michigan International Speedway

Tagged with: Carfax 400, Carl Edwards, One and Done

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Fantasy Pick’Em: 2010 Heluva Good! Sour Cream Dips 400

by Chris Leone, Special To NASCAR commentary and pictures,2010 NASCAR schedule,NASCAR video, Bench Racing With Steve and Charlie

June 10, 2010 12:55 pm CDT No Comments

Carl Edwards Pocono Raceway

The Sprint Cup Series makes its first trip of the season to the Michigan International Speedway this weekend for the Heluva Good! Sour Cream Dips 400. Mark Martin won this event last year, while Brian Vickers (get well soon) won the last Cup event at Michigan late last summer.

For the third weekend in a row, the Cup cars face a grueling endurance event. First came the Coca-Cola 600, the longest event of the year. Last week gave us 500 long miles at Pocono. Now, drivers head to one of the fastest tracks on the circuit, where pole speeds frequently flirt with 190 miles per hour.

So who looks good for this weekend’s tilt?

My personal pick is going to be Jeff Gordon. Last week I took Denny Hamlin as my lead driver, and he rewarded me with a victory, so I’m looking for Gordon to continue my streak. He has two wins and 22 top-10s in 34 career Michigan starts, and is one of only two active drivers with an average Michigan start in the single digits. Last year he finished second in both Michigan races.

My dark horse for the weekend will be Bill Elliott. The Wood Brothers only run a limited schedule nowadays with factory Ford backing, but you can bet that they’ll be looking to impress at the home track of the American manufacturers. Elliott’s Michigan record isn’t too shabby, either – seven wins and 29 top-10s in 59 starts. Both are tops among active drivers.

Who else looks good at Michigan?

I hesitate offering up a Carl Edwards pick, because he’s burned me every time I’ve suggested him all year. He’s done very little to suggest that he’s still the same driver who won nine races in 2008. But Edwards has two wins and 10 top-10s in only 11 Michigan starts. His 6.1 average finish at the track is by far the best of any active driver, nearly four spots better than second-best Matt Kenseth.

Of course, this also makes Kenseth a viable Michigan pick, his last win coming at the track in 2006. Michigan is owner Jack Roush’s home track, and he always does his best to take a win at the track each year. Last year was the first since 2001 in which a Roush car didn’t take the checkers in a Michigan Cup event, and you can bet that the Cat in the Hat will do everything he can to change that.

Finally, it’s time for Junior Nation to get on its feet, because Dale Jr. is my final pick of the weekend. Sure, his one win at the track (and only win in the No. 88) came on fuel mileage, but he has led at least one lap in eight of the last nine Michigan events. In that span, he has all four of his career top fives at the track, and has completed 1734 of a possible 1735 laps. Clearly he can take a car to the front and keep it in the hunt.

Filed under: Bill Elliott, Carl Edwards, Dale Earnhardt Jr., Jeff Gordon, Matt Kenseth, Michigan International Speedway, One and Done NASCAR Fantasy Racing

Tagged with: Bill Elliott, Carl Edwards, Dale Earnhardt Jr., Heluva Good Sour Cream Dips 400, Jeff Gordon, Matt Kenseth, Michigan International Speedway, One and Done NASCAR Fantasy Racing

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Fantasy Pick’Em: 2010 Autism Speaks 400

by Chris Leone, Special To NASCAR commentary and pictures,2010 NASCAR schedule,NASCAR video, Bench Racing With Steve and Charlie

May 12, 2010 11:04 pm CDT No Comments

The Monster Mile, Dover International Speedway, will play host to this weekend’s Sprint Cup Series race, the Autism Speaks 400. Taken last year by Jimmie Johnson after an impressive pass of Tony Stewart with three laps to go, this is the last points-paying event before the All-Star festivities at Charlotte.

One of this week’s biggest headlines has been Rick Hendrick’s claim that Joe Gibbs Racing has “lapped” his Hendrick Motorsports team. This isn’t the case at Dover, however; three Hendrick drivers have an average finish at least four points better than that of Kyle Busch, Gibbs’ top Dover driver, whose average is a middling 16.9. Team leader Denny Hamlin has taken the fight to Johnson elsewhere this season, but horrible luck at Dover has given him four finishes outside of the top 35 in eight starts.

So if not the Gibbs drivers, who do you pick at Dover?

I’m going with Carl Edwards. Assuming that he won’t visit victory lane ever again is kind of a stretch, even if he hasn’t been a serious threat since that wild ride at Talladega last year. Edwards is exceptional at Dover, his average finish of 7.9 in 11 starts buoyed by seven top-10s and a win. Those other four races? No worse than 18th. He hasn’t failed to complete a lap in his last nine starts.

Martin Truex Jr. is my dark horse, though he’s certainly a middling driver at the track, with the lone exception of his dominant spring 2007 win. Three top-10s are offset by three finishes outside of the top 20, for an average finish of 15.2. It’s decent, but you can find better; then again, Truex’s team has used their “NAPA Know How” to put together a string of solid runs recently, putting them a mere 16 points out of the Chase. A Dover win could propel Truex into the playoffs just as it did three years ago.

Three more concrete warriors to consider:

Johnson has five wins in 16 Dover starts. That’s equal to the amount of sub-10th place finishes he has, and even then, three of those were top-15s. He also swept the track last year, leading 298 and 271 laps respectively on the way to his two victories. I’m not picking him for the sake of remaining interesting.

Jeff Gordon is long overdue for a win, and everybody knows it – the DuPont team should not be 40 races between trips to victory lane right now, especially given how strong they’ve been the past two weeks. Gordon’s accrued four wins and 21 top-10s in 34 Dover starts, though three of the wins came in 1995 and 1996, and only one came in a 400-mile event. The past four years have seen Gordon finish 12th or better in seven out of eight starts, with a total of 114 laps led.

Finally, four-time Dover winner Mark “The Kid” Martin gets a look for the consistency he’s shown at Dover since 2004. He doesn’t lead many laps, and hasn’t led in triple digits since last millennium, but going to Dover both times every year (even in his limited schedules) has kept him sharp at the oval. In 10 of his last 12 starts, he’s been in the top ten when the checkered flag fell; the other finishes were 14th and 23rd, not too shabby. Martin was the runner-up in the fall race, something he’s done seven times at the track.

Filed under: Carl Edwards, Dover International Speedway, Jeff Gordon, Mark Martin, Martin Truex Jr., One and Done NASCAR Fantasy Racing, Sprint Cup Series, jimmie johnson

Tagged with: Autism Speaks 400, Carl Edwards, Dover International Speedway, Jeff Gordon, jimmie johnson, Mark Martin, Martin Truex Jr., One and Done NASCAR Fantasy Racing

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Fantasy Pick’Em: 2010 Subway Fresh Fit 600k

by Chris Leone, Special To NASCAR commentary and pictures,2010 NASCAR schedule,NASCAR video, Bench Racing With Steve and Charlie

April 8, 2010 1:53 am CDT 1 Comment

We’re now six races into the Sprint Cup Series season, as the circuit heads to Phoenix International Raceway for the Subway Fresh Fit 600k. Last year, Mark Martin won this race, his first victory at Phoenix in 16 years, and first of five over the course of the season.

Am I the only one who’s found the two early-season off weeks incredibly disjointing? I’ve nearly lost track of who’s where in points. It doesn’t help that I’ve had a few busy weeks, too, but let’s spread some of these off-weeks out for when we really need them!

With that in mind, I’m not going to pick Phoenix based on momentum. The choppy early season kills that a little. Denny Hamlin, the winner two weeks ago, just had his knee worked on, so there’s not much we should expect out of him yet anyway. Jimmie Johnson is Jimmie Johnson – momentum doesn’t matter, he’s going to perform no matter what. So let’s just look at the numbers and pick five, shall we?

I’m going to go with Martin this weekend, partially because it seems about time that he kick it into gear. He was fourth in points exiting Las Vegas, only to plummet to 17th in the last three weeks. You also have to keep in mind that Martin is to Phoenix what Johnson is to Martinsville, albeit without quite as many wins. His average finish of 8.3 in 26 starts is incredible. Unlike a driver with a shorter career like Johnson, with fewer opportunities to make a mistake, Martin has finished every Phoenix race he’s started since 1989.

My dark horse is Joey Logano. Call it a hunch, because it is. He’s finished 21st in both Cup starts at Phoenix. But he’s been solid in the two Nationwide races, and the poise that he’s shown thus far this season proves that he’s a much different driver than he was one year ago. I wouldn’t call it momentum that he’s got going into the weekend – confidence seems like a better term.

Three more, because I always do:

Johnson has won four of the past five Phoenix races. Yup. I should probably take him overall but it feels like cheating because it’s so darned obvious.

Jeff Burton is an interesting pick, as the combination of his resurgence thus far this year and a Phoenix record that includes two wins and an average finish of 10.8 in 21 starts suggest good things for the Virginia native. He did work his way up from a 36th place starting spot to finish second in the fall race last year. Dominating wins in 2000 and 2001 show that he knows how to get it done.

Finally, Carl Edwards is way overdue for some good luck. He’s never won in a Cup car at Phoenix, but seven top-10s in 11 starts suggest he can. He had a great shot in the fall of 2007, leading 85 laps, until a blown engine stuck him 42nd in the final rundown. Other than that anomaly, and his debut at the track, he’s been generally pretty consistent.

Filed under: Carl Edwards, Jeff Burton, Joey Logano, Mark Martin, One and Done NASCAR Fantasy Racing, Phoenix International Raceway, jimmie johnson

Tagged with: Carl Edwards, Jeff Burton, jimmie johnson, Joey Logano, Mark Martin, One and Done NASCAR Fantasy Racing, Phoenix International Raceway, Subway Fresh Fit 600k

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Lack of Suspension for Carl Edwards Inexplicable

by Chris Leone, Special To NASCAR commentary and pictures,2010 NASCAR schedule,NASCAR video, Bench Racing With Steve and Charlie

March 11, 2010 4:07 pm CST 2 Comments

I have been a fan of Roush Fenway Racing since I was a small child, watching Mark Martin pilot the No. 6 Valvoline car. Through the years, watching the team expand into one of NASCAR’s first multicar powerhouses, I have become a fan of almost every driver to slide behind the wheel of their Fords.

This means that yes, to some extent, I am a Carl Edwards fan. Say what you will about his personality, but he shows flashes of brilliance as a racecar driver, the nine-win season in 2008 included. I think his 2009 Talladega wreck may have affected his psyche a little bit, and may make him a more careful driver in the long term, but he’s still got talent.

That aside, however, his actions in Sunday’s race at Atlanta were inexcusable. I’m sure that everybody knows what happened by now – after Brad Keselowski (the same driver who put him into the catchfence at Talladega last year) got into him early in the race, he returned to the track and ruined a great run by the Penske Racing driver with five laps to go.

Keselowski’s car flipped and landed on its roof, most of the pressure on the driver’s side, before rolling back on all four wheels. Keselowski was shaken up to say the least, and Edwards was parked for his deliberate actions, which he all but admitted to later on.

The problem, however, is NASCAR’s decision only to put Edwards on probation for three races for this incident. Given his history with Keselowski, as well as the complaints that others like Denny Hamlin make about the young driver, these incidents are likely not over. They’ll just wait until Edwards’ probation is over. NASCAR didn’t even wring Edwards’ hands – they wagged a finger. That’s all that the meeting between the two drivers and their owners will be, too.

Marty Smith wrote on Twitter that a “precedent has been set” for these types of retaliatory actions – that no driver should be afraid to dive-bomb a rival they’re angry at now. I understand NASCAR’s desire to open up the racing this year, and I applaud it, but not laying the hammer down in deliberate accidents, especially ones where the wrecked driver could have been seriously hurt, is a mistake.

My opinion: NASCAR should have parked Edwards for at least one race. I might have waited until the next Atlanta race to do it, however. I don’t want a driver who’s going to race like that to make his way into the Chase, and Atlanta is the penultimate regular season race. Taking Edwards out of a race so close to the cutoff could knock him out (if he’s in) and make it far more difficult to make up ground, whereas missing Bristol would give him about 20 more races to get back to the front.

Filed under: Atlanta Motor Speedway, Brad Kesolowski, Carl Edwards

Tagged with: Atlanta Motor Speedway, Brad Keselowski, Carl Edwards

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Hamlin To Race With Torn ACL, But Is It Worth The Risk?

by Chris Leone, Special To NASCAR commentary and pictures,2010 NASCAR schedule,NASCAR video, Bench Racing With Steve and Charlie

January 24, 2010 3:04 pm CST 1 Comment

ESPN reported today that Denny Hamlin, driver of the No. 11 FedEx Toyota for Joe Gibbs Racing, recently tore the anterior cruciate ligament in his left knee during a game of pickup basketball.

It’s the second knee injury Hamlin has suffered in recent months from playing basketball. He had surgery in December to repair a torn meniscus in his other knee. With the season just about to start, however, Hamlin has decided to defer the necessary surgery to repair his other knee until the end of the year.

The repercussions of this story, because of the nature of Hamlin’s injury (considered catastrophic in many other sports), have a wide span.

A team spokesman said that Hamlin should have no problem driving the car, but driving hurt means that he won’t be the same caliber driver he normally is. Keep in mind that Carl Edwards failed to score a single top five finish last year after breaking his foot during a game of Frisbee.

An injury the nature of Edwards’ takes about six to eight weeks to heal. In any other sport, it would certainly be a cause for concern in an athlete, but after healing, the athlete should be fine.

Hamlin’s injury, on the other hand, can undo the entire career of some other athletes. At the very least, it’s a season-ending injury that should take about eight months to a year to be fully rehabilitated, and even then, the athlete will likely never be the same. All-world NFL quarterback Tom Brady suffered a torn ACL in the first week of the 2008 season, and didn’t return until the next year.

And we expect Hamlin to drive with this?

The worst feedback that can possibly come out of racing with an ACL tear is a flare-up of the old “drivers aren’t athletes” argument. “If they can race with an injury that is catastrophic to sports,” the naysayers will inevitably contend, “then what makes them a true athlete? None of these injuries were suffered during racing. They were suffered while the athletes played other sports.”

And seeing that these injuries were suffered while playing recreational sports, will team owners begin introducing stricter recreation clauses in athletes’ contracts? Already many athletes, in all sports, are prohibited from doing anything that could cause serious injury to them, or else they risk their contracts being voided.

Sure, deferring surgery until the end of the year allows Hamlin to race in the meantime. But there are plenty of other variables he has to consider. For one, deferring reconstructive surgery means that his rehab will have to go through 2011, meaning that if his driving is affected (and it probably will be), he could be out of contention for the good part of two years.

Hamlin is also reportedly a free agent after this season. What if he has a terrible year? Will he be as attractive to other teams - even as attractive to Gibbs - if he’s still nursing a pickup basketball injury?

There really isn’t a good reason for Denny Hamlin to drive through an ACL injury. It puts too much at risk. It’s smarter for him to properly rehabilitate the injury and come back stronger when it’s fully healed. Joe Gibbs Racing can certainly find a worthy candidate for fill-in duty until Hamlin returns.

Filed under: Denny Hamlin, Joe Gibbs Racing

Tagged with: Carl Edwards, Denny Hamlin, Joe Gibbs Racing, torn acl

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