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Fantasy Pick’Em: 2011 Showtime Southern 500

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by Chris Leone, Special To NASCAR commentary and driver pictures, 2011 NASCAR schedule, video, Bench Racing With Steve and Charlie

I do weekly Fantasy Pick'Em columns here at OPR, as well as the occasional opinion and analysis piece. I also provide the IZOD IndyCar Series coverage. For more on that, head to my site, OpenWheelAmerica.com. My Twitter handle is @christopherlion.

May 6, 2011 12:08 pm CDT No Comments

What it do, folks? Sorry about the delay on this week’s fantasy blabbering - it’s term paper week at college, you understand. Thankfully, my hard work (cough) will pay off when I get to relax on Saturday night and watch the Showtime Southern 500 at the Lady in Black, Darlington Raceway.

Granted, it stunk when NASCAR ruined a bunch of traditions by getting rid of the Labor Day tradition that was the Southern 500, took away a race from one of the sport’s most famous tracks, and decided to run on Mother’s Day weekend. But the result - this race - has made for a spectacular event since day one.

But enough about that. You want to know who’s going to win. Well, I’ll see what I can do.

Kyle Busch: If it’s about momentum, Rowdy’s got it after that Richmond win. Leading 235 of 400 laps and winning the spring event there three years in a row is a great way to come into Darlington with your head held high. Busch has never won the Darlington race directly after winning Richmond, his lone victory at the track coming in 2008. But unless he gets snakebit (finishes of 37th in 2007 and 34th in 2009), he should run well.

Denny Hamlin: Hamlin’s career average finish at Darlington is a Jimmie Johnson-esque 6.6 in five starts, by far the best of all active drivers. He’s never finished worse than 13th, and won last year. So why am I ranking teammate Kyle Busch (average finish: 18.2) above Hamlin on the board this week? Because Hamlin’s had a rough year. Something with that team hasn’t been right since day one. Maybe it was the engine room explosion at Joe Gibbs Racing in the offseason; maybe it’s a hangover from a tough championship run that fell just short. Either way, I’m not sold… although he could easily prove me wrong.

Brad Keselowski: He’s had finishes of seventh and 12th in two Darlington starts. After last weekend, when Kurt Busch ripped his Penske Racing team a new one, you can expect everybody in that shop to give plenty of extra effort working on both cars to make sure that a weekend like that never happens again. They call Roger Penske “the Captain” for a reason - he simply refuses to accept failure. While Penske himself may be focusing on Indianapolis 500 preparations, you can bet that he’s instilled the fear of god almighty in his two Sprint Cup teams.

Filed under: Brad Kesolowski, Darlington Speedway, Denny Hamlin, Kyle Busch, NASCAR Fantasy Gaming 

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Fantasy Pick’Em: 2011 Aaron’s 499

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by Chris Leone, Special To NASCAR commentary and driver pictures, 2011 NASCAR schedule, video, Bench Racing With Steve and Charlie

I do weekly Fantasy Pick'Em columns here at OPR, as well as the occasional opinion and analysis piece. I also provide the IZOD IndyCar Series coverage. For more on that, head to my site, OpenWheelAmerica.com. My Twitter handle is @christopherlion.

April 13, 2011 11:23 am CDT No Comments

Before you even read another word of this column, keep the following in mind. We’re trying to predict fantasy NASCAR at a restrictor-plate superspeedway. There is literally no rhyme or reason to this whatsoever. There will almost undoubtedly be a giant accident or three that will eliminate 20 cars from contention, and more likely than not the following three drivers will all be involved.

That being said, let’s start the guesswork.

Look, nobody predicted that Trevor Bayne would win the Daytona 500 (except, well, for me… and way to drop the timestamp, Twitter). Nobody predicted Brad Keselowski to win at Talladega in a Phoenix Racing car two years ago, either. That’s how much of a crapshoot restrictor-plate events are. They’re the great equalizer - 36 races on these tracks would likely produce 36 different winners.

It’s not about speed, it’s about survival. But these three are generally good at it. You know how it goes - my pick first, then an alternate, then my dark horse. Don’t be totally shocked.

Carl Edwards: Edwards has been the strongest, most consistent driver in the sport thus far this year. That’s probably going to be more of a curse than a blessing this weekend, as you think that bad luck is going to have to get to him eventually. You also wonder, after the wreck in 2009 that saw his car go flying, if Edwards has that nagging conservatism in him on restrictor plate tracks. But that conservatism might help him if it causes him to stay way back of the wrecks and make it to the final few laps.

Brad Keselowski: Keselowski’s actually got three top-10s in four Talladega starts, including the win in his track debut, giving him a 13.2 average finish that tops all active drivers. Consistency is a difficult concept at Talladega, but Keselowski’s as good as any.

Trevor Bayne: Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice… well, the point is NOT to fool me twice. Even if you think Bayne’s got more Michael Waltrip in him than Jeff Gordon - and I think you’re wrong if you do - some drivers are just incredible on the restrictor plate tracks, and for all we know, Bayne will be one of them throughout his career.

Filed under: Brad Kesolowski, Carl Edwards, NASCAR Fantasy Gaming, Talladega Superspeedway, Trevor Bayne 

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2012, I mean, 2011 NASCAR Astro-Predictions

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by Clance' McClannahan, Special To NASCAR commentary and driver pictures, 2011 NASCAR schedule, video, Bench Racing With Steve and Charlie

Clance' McClannahan, famous author behind The Church of The Great Oval and also one of the much appreciated Contributing Authors at Thunder Lounge.

January 25, 2011 11:24 am CST 2 Comments

2012,  I mean 2011 is a very special year, both Numerologically and Astrologically.

Are you curious about how your driver is going to do? Is Jimmie Johnson going to win again? How will Dale Jr. fare? Tony Stewart has already started his year a bit aggressively…Will Smoke be smoking hot in 2012? I mean, 2011? Will Brooklyn’s affect on new Daddy Ryan Newman change the way he drives? What about Kyle Busch, Brad Keselowski, and Carl Edwards?  Will they continue to drive as phenomenally, now that they have had to choose which series they will earn point in? Will the feuds continue?

I dare YOU to use my prediction’s in your Fantasy Racing.

I dare ME to remember to play.

I dare Charlie to beat me.

I dare Steve to prove he is not an Idiot.

I dare ALL the Stat guys to a challenge of accuracy.

Stats vs. ‘Scope’s.

2011, I mean 2010, brought us some of the most exciting racing in years. Will the changes in NASCAR rules, affect the excitement for the fans, or dampen it?  Will it be possible that actually winning races will matter?

We will be taking a look at all the full time NASCAR Driver’s for the first six months of the season tomorrow. I will also be looking at the year and make my predictions as to who may be the 2012 NASCAR Sprint Cup Champion. I have to do it early, so no one can say I cheat. Oops. 2011. So far this year I am losing in the accuracy challenge. By a year. I was spot on last year…

Well, not quite. Only 97%.

It’s tough to be a Goddess. ~ Me.

WTH?

Filed under: NASCAR, NASCAR Astro-Predictions, NASCAR Fantasy Gaming, NASCAR Predictions, Nascaholics 

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Fantasy Pick’Em: 2010 Price Chopper 400

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by Chris Leone, Special To NASCAR commentary and driver pictures, 2011 NASCAR schedule, video, Bench Racing With Steve and Charlie

I do weekly Fantasy Pick'Em columns here at OPR, as well as the occasional opinion and analysis piece. I also provide the IZOD IndyCar Series coverage. For more on that, head to my site, OpenWheelAmerica.com. My Twitter handle is @christopherlion.

September 30, 2010 11:05 am CDT No Comments

Greg Biffle-pit-stop New Hampshire

Greg Biffle-pit-stop New Hampshire

Get ready for an uncomfortable amount of Wizard of Oz puns – the Sprint Cup Series heads to the Kansas Speedway this weekend for the Price Chopper 400.

We are now two races into this year’s Chase for the Sprint Cup, and already the contenders and pretenders are beginning to separate themselves. Denny Hamlin will be in the running. Jimmie Johnson, obviously, will too. Carl Edwards could steal the title with a couple of well-timed victories, while Kyle Busch may quietly (believe it or not!) be there at the end as well.

But Hamlin now holds the largest lead in Chase history after two races, 35 points over Johnson, meaning that this weekend’s results will be intensely critical for all Chasers. Can Hamlin extend that lead by beating Johnson and the field, or will a bad day for the No. 11 team, combined with a great day for a mid-Chase car, shake up the points?

My personal pick for the weekend lies within the Roush Fenway camp. I know I’ve gone on the record multiple times saying that Greg Biffle has been anonymous within the Chase, and I still believe he has been. But Juan Pablo Montoya was anonymous all season, and he still managed to dominate at Watkins Glen and Indianapolis. Likewise, Biffle is a Kansas star, with five podium finishes in eight starts and no finishes with Roush worse than 12th. His average finish is a flat 9.0. Safe bet? I think so.

My dark horse pick for the weekend is one A.J. Allmendinger. The ‘Dinger has only made two starts at Kansas, finishing ninth in 2008 and 17th last year, but this pick comes from examining the No. 43 team’s momentum. At Dover last weekend, the Richard Petty Motorsports team was one of the best in the field, qualifying second and battling back from getting caught off the lead lap. They’re beginning to show that the King’s race team is once again respectable and setting some high goals for 2011.

Three more, because we can:

The only driver to outpace Biffle at Kansas is Jeff Gordon, one of those mid-Chase drivers who desperately needs to make a statement with a victory. There’s no better place for him to do it; winner of the track’s first two races, his average finish is a fantastic 8.9, making Kansas his second-best Chase track. You try not to count a guy out of the Chase this early, but judging by the rest of the Chase schedule, this weekend may be now or never for him.

Clint Bowyer, too, has a solid track record at Kansas. He’s got a second place finish, which came during his improbable 2007 run to third in the championship, and an average finish of a respectable 11.0. But most of Bowyer’s mojo will come from an even greater desire to win the championship with NASCAR’s sanctions upon the team. He and RCR aren’t too happy with the perceived dog and pony show in appeals, and will be looking to show everybody that they don’t need to cheat to win.

Finally, Brad Keselowski only has one Cup start at Kansas, but he managed to qualify third and finish 13th in it. Not a bad run for the Kez, who’s been getting a whole lot of love from me since his pole run at Loudon. He gives an excellent press conference. Hate him or love him, he’s the sport’s next big thing.

Filed under: Kansas Speedway, One and Done NASCAR Fantasy Racing 

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Fantasy Pick’Em: 2010 AAA 400

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by Chris Leone, Special To NASCAR commentary and driver pictures, 2011 NASCAR schedule, video, Bench Racing With Steve and Charlie

I do weekly Fantasy Pick'Em columns here at OPR, as well as the occasional opinion and analysis piece. I also provide the IZOD IndyCar Series coverage. For more on that, head to my site, OpenWheelAmerica.com. My Twitter handle is @christopherlion.

September 23, 2010 8:12 am CDT No Comments

This weekend’s AAA 400 at Dover International Speedway marks the second of 10 races in the Chase for the Sprint Cup. Dominated last year by Jimmie Johnson, it will be the second consecutive race on a one-mile oval, although unlike New Hampshire the Dover track is heavily banked.

Clint Bowyer shocked us all by winning last weekend’s race at Loudon, but the news that his team altered rear end parts may have dried up all hope for that team. Bowyer’s whopping 150-point penalty basically makes it as if he finished last in the race, and puts him back in 12th in the Chase standings.

Yet again, we’ll stick with the tradition of picking one Chase driver as our lead driver each race in the Chase, and not re-using them for the duration of the event. This means Denny Hamlin (second place last weekend) can’t be my lead pick. So who will be this weekend? And who else looks good at Dover?

I’m going to go with Carl Edwards this time around. While Roush Fenway is struggling in the Chase standings, with all of its three candidates in the bottom half of the standings, Edwards showed a lot in the early to middle stages at Loudon. At Dover, his 7.9 average finish makes him the only driver to keep that stat in the single digits. Might as well use him up while he’s hot.

As for a dark horse pick, consider semi-local boy Martin Truex Jr., the New Jersey native who picked up his first career Sprint Cup win at the Monster Mile. He won the pole for the Dover spring race and has posted a solid 14.9 average finish, buoyed by three top-10s.

Three more for the road:

I’ll state once more that I want to save Jimmie Johnson for the end of the Chase (or as close to it as I can), but he’s statistically the second best finisher at Dover behind Edwards. His 10.2 comes from a magnificent five wins in 17 starts, while he has led at least 100 laps six times (including in each of the past three Dover events). Solid? I think so.

Next up, Greg Biffle hasn’t failed to complete a lap at Dover since the fall of 2005. Even then, that was a single lap. In that stretch of nine races since, Biffle has scored one of his two Dover wins and eight top-10s, with a worst finish of 13th. Despite Roush’s uncertainty after their New Hampshire runs, Biffle’s always a strong Dover contender.

Finally, for a left-field pick, consider Brad Keselowski. Last week’s pole winner has a strong Dover record in the Nationwide Series, scoring a victory in the spring of last year that helped propel his rise to Sprint Cup. Since joining JR Motorsports in that series, and now driving for Penske Racing, he has finished no worse than seventh in six Dover starts.

Filed under: Dover International Speedway, One and Done NASCAR Fantasy Racing 

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Fantasy Pick’Em: 2010 Showtime Southern 500

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by Chris Leone, Special To NASCAR commentary and driver pictures, 2011 NASCAR schedule, video, Bench Racing With Steve and Charlie

I do weekly Fantasy Pick'Em columns here at OPR, as well as the occasional opinion and analysis piece. I also provide the IZOD IndyCar Series coverage. For more on that, head to my site, OpenWheelAmerica.com. My Twitter handle is @christopherlion.

May 6, 2010 10:34 am CDT 1 Comment

The Showtime Southern 500 is one of the most popular races on the Sprint Cup Series schedule. The 11th race on the schedule, it marks Darlington Raceway’s lone stop on the tour, and a win here marks a highlight of most drivers’ careers.

Richmond winner Kyle Busch may have a win at Darlington in five starts, but other than that has had some pretty rotten luck with the Lady in Black. He has three finishes of 23rd or worse, including two finishes in the bottom 10 of the field. It’s safe to say that he hasn’t quite figured out the Track Too Tough to Tame just yet.

One driver who has, though, is Jimmie Johnson. Shocker, right? Yes, Johnson is good just about everywhere, but at only three tracks does he have a better average finish than the 6.9 he’s put up in 11 Darlington starts. Two wins and nine top-10s show remarkable consistency, even for an all-world talent like Four-Time. He’s my pick for the weekend, meaning Jeff Gordon is going to put him in the wall or something. Oh well.

As for a dark horse, I’m going with Brad Keselowski on a hunch. He’s won his past two Nationwide races, and it’s about time that things work out on the Cup side. Consistent top-15 and top-20 finishes in five of the six races since his Atlanta joyride suggest that he’s getting a grasp of what it takes to succeed. He finished 7th in the Southern 500 last year, in his only Cup start at Darlington.

Three more for the show:

Jeff Gordon has seven Darlington wins, tied with Martinsville for the most he has at any track. Gordon’s average finish of 11.3 is fifth-best of active drivers with multiple Darlington starts. It’s more of a testament to how strong he is universally, but that only ranks the track as only his 11th best. Seven wins and 20 top-10s in 29 starts, and only his 11th best track. Food for thought for the Hall of Fame committee in a couple years.

Defending race champion Mark Martin has two wins at Darlington, the other coming in the fall of 1993, the fourth race he had won in a row that year. Martin’s 26 top-10s rank behind only Bill Elliott in quantity, and his average finish of 12.0 puts him eighth of active drivers with multiple Darlington starts.

Finally, when Greg Biffle is on at Darlington, he’s on. Da Biff has an average start of 8.2, ranking behind only Gordon in drivers with multiple starts. He won this race in 2005 and 2006, has led laps in seven of his nine Darlington starts (five times leading 70 or more), and won the pole in 2008. Unfortunately, his engine let go that year and relegated him to last place, hurting his average finish of 14.0. Biffle’s 117 laps led were the most of anybody last year, and his driver rating of 128.3 was tops among the field.

Filed under: Brad Kesolowski, Darlington Speedway, Greg Biffle, Jeff Gordon, Mark Martin, One and Done NASCAR Fantasy Racing, jimmie johnson 

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