One and Done: Kobalt Tools 500

by Chris Leone, Special To NASCAR commentary and driver pictures, 2011 NASCAR schedule, video, Bench Racing With Steve and Charlie

I do weekly Fantasy Pick'Em columns here at OPR, as well as the occasional opinion and analysis piece. I also provide the IZOD IndyCar Series coverage. For more on that, head to my site, OpenWheelAmerica.com. My Twitter handle is @christopherlion.

March 4, 2009 9:03 pm UTC 2 Comments

Well, I dropped the ball last week at Vegas. I had lined up seven picks before the race, of which I chose the best-looking five; while I picked the winner (Kyle Busch), one of those eight (Travis Kvapil) didn’t even qualify, two of those eight (Mark Martin and Matt Kenseth, my pick in the game itself) blew engines, two (Elliott Sadler and Casey Mears, the guys I thought could be surprise winners) were outside the top 25, and the other two (Busch and Jeff Gordon) were, as expected, very strong. Good thing I posted both the race winner and the points leader, or else I’d look really stupid right now.

The biggest lesson one has to take out of last week is that even the surest bet can be negatively affected by bad luck. Who would’ve thought that three Roush Fenway cars would lose engines? That Mark Martin would blow up for the second week in a row? (Shame, really. His car was so strong.) That David Reutimann and Bobby Labonte would contend for a win? But these are outliers (save, in my opinion, Reutimann and Labonte, who I think will both be strong this year).

While it’s tantalizing to make selections based on good luck, especially with last week’s race being in Las Vegas, things like fuel mileage and a bad shipment of parts from a vendor are not easily quantifiable. If you’re not picking on a hunch, you’re playing a numbers game, and the odds aren’t too kind to you if you predict that three of the seven Roush-Yates engines in the field will grenade on any given weekend. (Although if you did last week, I’d like to go out gambling with you.)

But enough about the past. This weekend the Sprint Cup Series visits Atlanta. Atlanta, like Vegas, is a 1.5 mile tri-oval owned by Bruton Smith, albeit with a more defined dogleg and a longer history; this weekend the track hosts its 100th Cup race. 12 drivers on the entry list have won races at Atlanta, and at least half the field can boast of at least one top-5, so picking at a track like this is a minor crapshoot.

So let’s get interesting. Without further ado, here are the five drivers you should strongly consider selecting this weekend:

5. Reed Sorenson: Call the Georgia native a hunch, or a feel-good pick, if you must. His driver ratings were low in the first three races of the season, and he was never strong last week. On the other hand, Sorenson has shown flashes of brilliance at his home track, finishing 3rd in low-tier Ganassi equipment in 2007. Sorenson also has an emotional boost on his side: As part of an Allstate program that involves speaking at high schools in the area, Sorenson will pay tribute to the 198 Georgia teenagers who died in car accidents in 2007 by carrying “GA-198” on his pit board.

4. Jimmie Johnson: A guy who hasn’t qualified worse than 7th all year can’t stay down for long. It was only losing control late at Vegas that caused him to finish 24th. We all know Johnson is a better driver than that, especially at Atlanta, where his average finish of 9.1 leads all active drivers. This weekend could be the start of a breakout. By the way, Charlie, Jimmie’s an easy pick at every track on the circuit, which is why I try and avoid picking him and taking the easy way out.

3. Kasey Kahne: The ultimate feast or famine driver at Atlanta, Kahne has four top-10s and four finishes below 30th in 10 starts. One of those top-10s was a victory, in spring 2006; two of those sub-30th finishes were due to accidents. When he’s on, Kahne has never finished worse than ninth, but when he’s off, his best finish is 28th. Kahne is a high-risk, high-reward pick, especially when noting that four of the five races since his win have ended in sub-par finishes, but bad luck can’t last forever.

2. Bobby Labonte: Call me crazy for suggesting that Hall of Fame Racing equipment is suddenly spectacular, but it may be the missing piece that could return Labonte to Victory Lane at a track he’s conquered six times. Yes, the past few years have had their shares of ups (three qualifying runs of 6th or better since 2006) and downs (four finishes outside the top 30 since 2005). But the missing pieces in those years were quality vehicles. Roush-Yates engines are usually the best in the garage, a comforting asserting for Labonte, who would have contended for the spring 2006 win had his engine not blown early. The momentum of last week’s 5th-place run is another big plus.

1. Jeff Gordon: He’s leading the point standings, he’s rejuvenated, and most importantly, he’s Jeff Gordon, which means he can win at any track he wants. Gordon has 21 top-10s in 33 starts at Atlanta, including four wins. Gordon qualified for the pole for this race last year, and hasn’t finished any worse than 12th since an accident ended his spring 2005 run. Gordon is always strong at Atlanta, and judging by the quality of his cars this year, this weekend should be no exception.

A couple of important notes: For those of you with these guys in mind, neither Brad Keselowski nor Regan Smith will be competing in this weekend’s race. Keselowski’s next event for Hendrick Motorsports in the No. 25 GoDaddy.com Chevrolet will be on April 5 at Texas. And or those who don’t know, Brad is running with two Sprint Cup teams this year; his next run for Phoenix Racing will be at Talladega on the 26th of April. Smith and the Furniture Row Racing team have added the April 5 Texas event to their schedule, and will also compete in the April events at Phoenix and Talladega, but are done for this month. Happy picking, folks!

Photo Credit: Icon Sports Media

Filed under: Atlanta Motor Speedway, NASCAR, One and Done NASCAR Fantasy Racing

Tagged with: Atlanta Motor Speedway, Kobalt Tools 500, One and Done, One and Done NASCAR Fantasy Racing

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Comments

2 Responses to “One and Done: Kobalt Tools 500”

Charlie Turner on March 4th, 2009 9:44 pm

You can’t be blamed for picking Roush drivers at Vegas Chris. Blown motors in Roush cars don’t show up in any stats.

I’ve said for years that Jeff Gordon is always a good pick. Last year’s winless run doesn’t change my mind.

And I took Bobby Labonte in the game this week. Sentimental – maybe a bit – but I agree with you on the combo of Yates power and Labonte/Atlanta Karma.

Thanks for pointing out the non-starters too.
Steve Wronkowicz on March 4th, 2009 11:06 pm

Charlie will be all over me for this, but another long shot with a shot is the Wood Brothers with Awesome Bill behind the wheel. He owned Atlanta for years and with the limited schedule that the 21 is running, emphasis is being put on selected races. Call me daisey and pluck my petals, but i like Bill.

But…I put my money on Shrub as it’s hard tobeat his talent and the equipment under him on a race to race basis.

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