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Will Junior get the first 2008 Hendrick win at Atlanta?

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by Charlie Turner

Thanks for stopping by OnPitRow.com and the Bench Racing with Steve and Charlie blog. The best NASCAR and IndyCar news and opinion, exclusive pictures and video. I'm Charlie Turner. Follow me on Twitter @onpitrow

March 7, 2008 5:50 pm EST 5 Comments

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Only the most blindly rabid Dale Earnhardt Jr fan would have predicted that Junior would be the Hendrick Motorsports driver with the most series points after three races. Finishing strongly in two of the three 2008 events has been a mark of consistency that Earnhardt’s teammates at the House of Hendrick have not been able to match.

Two time defending Sprint Cup Champ Jimmy Johnson bracketed his second place finish at California with a wreck in the Daytona 500 and a very so-so run to 29th place at Las Vegas.

Jeff Gordon has two DNF’s to go with a third place run and Casey Mears sits 34th in points, only 19 points ahead of missing the top 35 cutoff - with only two races left for him to live on his 2007 owner’s points.

Earnhardt Jr won the Budweiser Shootout and one of the Gatorade 150’s at Daytona in February but it’s been awhile since he’s won a regular Cup race. Atlanta Motor Speedway is a place where his winless streak could end. He has one career win and seven top five finishes at AMS and Loop Data Driver Rating of 100.2 which is fifth best. He also has 410 Green Flag Passes, second most and a series-high 210 Quality Passes, which are passes of cars in the top fifteen, under green flag conditions.

This field will be tough to beat though

The four drivers with higher Driver Ratings at AMS than Earnhardt are led by his teammate Jimmy Johnson. It seems like every track we look at has JJ as the stats-on favorite to win again. Johnson dominates the 16 Loop Data categories that make up the Box Score with series best stats in ten. His Driver Rating is tops at 118.2, he has run 1830 laps – 93.7% - in the top 15 and led 16.7 % of all laps in the last six races for a total of 326. Top those off with Series leading Ave. Finish of 4.7. Any questions?

The guy with the next best Ave. Finish to Johnson’s 4.7 is Carl Edwards at 9.7. Of course Carl’s Ave. Finish the last two weeks is a perfect one. One as in won – first place, run the table, the winner. Edwards is hot and the penalties that his team and he were hit with on Wednesday may just make him hotter. The 100 point deduction took away his short-lived Series point lead. If he’s going to take his frustration out on the rest of the Sprint Cup Series, he’ll have to do it without crew chief Bob Osborne who was suspended for six races and fined a cool $100 grand. But Edwards goes to Atlanta as a two time winner there and he’s finished in the top ten every trip to the Georgia fast track. His Loop Driver Rating is fourth best at 102.8.

Roush-Fenway driver Greg Biffle has the third best DR at 103.5 and Biffle has been running up front all year. He could have won any of the three 2008 races and may have had the fastest car at Las Vegas. A couple of pit lane infractions caused him to start at the back of the pack on re-starts otherwise Greg may have been the Roush Ford to run away with the Vegas win. Biffle is always fast and his best results are on the fastest tracks. Atlanta fits the description and Greg is on form with a Series high 201 Fastest Laps Run. He also has second best stats in Ave. Green Flag Speed, Laps in the Top Fifteen and Ave. Running Position of 9.4.

Tony Stewart has two wins and eleven top tens in eighteen career starts at AMS. He owns the second best Driver Rating at 104.2 but other than a third best Ave. Running Position of 10.2, his Loop stats don’t jump off the page at you. Smoke also took two very hard hits in his two races at Las Vegas and he was still very sore at testing in Phoenix on Tuesday. This weeks race at Atlanta is a 500 miler. I discount Tony a bit with the injury and a long race.

The winner could well come from the second five in the Loop stats; Matt Kenseth, Jeff Gordon, Jeff Burton, Mark Martin and Kasey Kahne. I touched on Gordon’s results thus far, but he and Kenseth were battling for the win at Las Vegas when they tangled. The wreck took both drivers out of top five finishes at least. The other three all finished top ten at Vegas.

I like Biffle to win at Atlanta. For a sleeper, look at Georgia native Reed Sorenson. It’s just a matter of time before Reed gets his first win and it won’t be his last either. He may be too quiet for his own good but with a top five and three top ten finishes in his six AMS events, he might just make some noise this week.

Photo credit: Icon Sports Media, Inc.

Filed under: Carl Edwards, Casey Mears, Dale Earnhardt Jr., Greg Biffle, Jeff Gordon, Jimmy Johnson, Kasey Kahne, Mark Martin, Matt Kenseth, NASCAR Fantasy Gaming, Reed Sorenson, Roush Racing, Sprint Cup Series, Tony Stewart 

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Comments

5 Responses to “Will Junior get the first 2008 Hendrick win at Atlanta?”

  1. Chuck Snyder on March 8th, 2008 8:46 pm

    I have been a Tony Stewart fan from the start, and I still think he is one of the best drivers out there, but through the chase last year and the few Cup races this year it just appears Tony is not giving it 100% . I feel he is satisfied with just a top 10 finish.
    Sorry.

  2. User Avatar Charlie Turner on March 8th, 2008 9:01 pm

    You think? As disappointed as Tony was to not win the Daytona 500 I find that hard to swallow. Stewart is about as driven as any sportsman I’ve ever seen. I’ll grant you that his Chase performance was poor last year compared to the Hendrick twins, but so was everyone else’s really. I think Smoke will have a say in the Championship before this is over.

  3. Tim Zaegel on March 8th, 2008 11:50 pm

    I don’t think Junior’s first win with HMS will be Atlanta … beause there’s just too many other drivers in the field I like this weekend … but, I wouldn’t be surprised if it did. It’s only a matter of time at this point …

  4. Tim Zaegel on March 8th, 2008 11:57 pm

    Chucky … c’mon, Tony Stewart is one of the most competitive human beings to ever step inside a race car. Sure, he may have had a lackluster Chase performance last year, but every single driver goes through spurts where they just can’t clear the hurdle. As for this year … let’s not forget that Toyota has yet to win a Sprint Cup series race, so I believe what he and Kyle Busch have done with those cars so far in ‘08 is truly special. Had it not been for the cut right front tire last Sunday, Stewart would still be in the top-3 in points. Plus he’s won 2 of his 3 Nationwide races he’s run this year.

    I guess Kyle Busch has lost his drive to win as well … I mean, it’s been 35 races since he’s won a Sprint Cup race.

  5. Vinny on March 17th, 2008 4:13 pm

    It has been a strange year so far. Jeff Gordons crash and the way he has started the year is just crazy.

    Jr will get the fiirst win for Hendrick but it will be at Lowes on Memorial day.

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