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At Texas Motor Speedway bet the hot hand

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by Charlie Turner

Thanks for stopping by OnPitRow.com and the Bench Racing with Steve and Charlie blog. The best NASCAR and IndyCar news and opinion, exclusive pictures and video. I'm Charlie Turner. Follow me on Twitter @onpitrow

April 3, 2008 11:36 pm CDT 2 Comments

Tony Stewart at BristolTexas Motor Speedway has a famous, and pretty funny, billboard ad campaign featuring different NASCAR drivers. The Dale Earnhardt Jr version created enough controversy early this year to cause a change in the ad copy. The original took a shot at Teresa Earnhardt and that was determined to be too tacky. A shame really, that they changed the original. It was funny and people ought to be able to laugh at themselves and the circumstances that they create. Not my call though. Too bad.

There is a Tony Stewart version too. Tony’s says ” Reason #20 - road rage“. Not as funny or clever as the Earnhardt Jr ad, but maybe it is descriptive of Smoke’s state of mind going to Texas. 2008 has been a mixed bag for the Home Depot Toyota.

Stewart is in sixth place in the Sprint Cup standings which is good. He is the only member of the Joe Gibbs Racing trio without a victory and that is not so good. Tony has led 289 2008 laps, second only to teammate Kyle Busch and he trails only Daytona 500 winner Ryan Newman in total earnings. We don’t need to take up a collection.

Maybe Texas Motor Speedway will be the venue where Stewart breaks the 2008 ice. He has the top Loop Data Driver Rating of 109.3. Stewart also has series best stats of 437 Laps Led - 21.8 % of all laps in the last six Texas races - 195 Fastest Laps and 88.9% of his laps run have been in the top fifteen (1786 total). But Tony has never won at the Texas mile-and-a-halfer. In fact he’s had only two top fives, to go with six top tens in eleven tries at TMS. For once, the Loop Data leader does not look like a prohibitive favorite to win.

Editor’s note: Stewart did win at TMS.  Here’s the story.

Loop Stats may not tell the story this week

Speaking of favorites, the guy who usually resides at the top of the 2007 stats, Jimmy Johnson, shows up second in Driver Rating for TMS. But this is one track JJ’s stats don’t make competitors cringe. At 104.1 he trails Stewart by more than five points and, for a change, has no series leading stats. In eight races Johnson has six top tens, three top fives and one win.

Matt Kenseth is right on Johnson’s heals with a Loop DR of 103.2 and has 5 top fives, including one win, in ten races at TMS. Matt’s Ave Loop Finish is a series leading 6.5 and that goes with the top Ave Mid Race Position of 5.5. Look for Kenseth up front Sunday.

Martinsville winner Denny Hamlin is the fourth rated TMS Loop driver. Hamlin has finished in the top ten in three of his five Texas starts and has a career ave finish 9.8. The Toyotas have looked strong in the super speedway races. Hamlin is the only driver in the field with a win streak to protect. He should be strong here.

Dale Earnhardt Jr has good looking stats at the Texas track including a win and six top tens in ten starts. His Driver Rating of 97.2 is right behind Kurt Busch’s 98 flat, but I like Junior better in the Hendrick Chevy than I do Kurt in the slumping Penske Dodge. In nine starts, Busch has six top tens but remains winless and looked mostly bad so far this season.

According to Fox Sports.com, Martin Truex Jr has an Ave Finish of 6.6 while the NASCAR Loop has him at 9.4 and a Driver Rating of 95.7. Either way Texas has been one of Martin’s best tracks. He has flirted with the top ten in points this year, but has just one top ten finish. I can’t see picking him over the other top Loopers.

Jeff Gordon, Greg Biffle and Carl Edwards round out the top ten in Loop DR. Of the three, Edwards is the scariest to see in your mirrors with two wins on somewhat similar tracks and a strong early run at very similar Atlanta Motor Speedway. That said, both Biffle and Gordon will win sometime before too long and this could be the week.

Does it sound like I’m waffling in my analysis? I am. I don’t like what the Loop stats are saying this week. What - or rather who - I like is Jeff Burton in the RCR #31 Chevy. All three RCR drivers are grouped with DR’s of 83.0 to 85.6. Kevin Harvick is the highest and Clint Bowyer the lowest. Right in the middle, almost where you would expect him to be is Burton at 83.1. But he sits on top of the 2008 Sprint Cup standings and has one win, three top fives and four top tens in six starts this year. Burton is also a two time winner at TMS. Mark it down, Burton to win.

Watch Dave Blaney and Brian Vickers to emerge from the field. Both are fast at fast tracks and maybe just due for the wind to change for them.

Photo credit: Icon Sports Media, Inc.

Filed under: Carl Edwards, Clint Boyer, Dale Earnhardt Jr., Denny Hamlin, Greg Biffle, Hendrick Motorsports, Jeff Burton, Jeff Gordon, Jimmy Johnson, Joe Gibbs Racing, Kevin Harvick, Martin Truex Jr., Matt Kenseth, NASCAR Fantasy Gaming, Richard Childress Racing, Roush Racing, Sprint Cup Series, Tony Stewart 

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Comments

2 Responses to “At Texas Motor Speedway bet the hot hand”

  1. John on April 4th, 2008 1:14 am

    Tony is going to be bummed that his win in the 2006 fall race at Texas has been taken away. Especially after leading 278 of the 339 laps. He’s really not going to want to give back the $521,361 purse he won.

    My post from last years fall race includes the Texas video of Tony winning in 2006. It’s at http://tsrfan.com/texas-motor-speedway-one-tough-place/2007/11/01/

  2. User Avatar Charlie Turner on April 4th, 2008 7:23 am

    My bad. I’ve had ARCA on the brain this past week. Thanks for the heads up. I’m surprised that Luke let me get away with that one, then again, he’s heading for the Thunder Lounge this weekend.

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