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Martin Truex Jr - Should He Stay Or Should He Go?

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by Chris Leone, Special To NASCAR commentary and driver pictures, 2011 NASCAR schedule, video, Bench Racing With Steve and Charlie

I do weekly Fantasy Pick'Em columns here at OPR, as well as the occasional opinion and analysis piece. I also provide the IZOD IndyCar Series coverage. For more on that, head to my site, OpenWheelAmerica.com. My Twitter handle is @christopherlion.

July 18, 2008 7:43 pm EDT 6 Comments

Martin Truex Jr - Should He Stay Or Should He Go?Ever since Dale Earnhardt Inc. announced its intention to pick up Martin Truex Jr.’s contract option for the 2009 season, speculation of the driver’s future has increased exponentially.

Over the past ten races, the New Jersey driver has finished in the top 20 nine times, with a 34th at Lowe’s Motor Speedway the lone exception. While Truex currently finds himself 17th in points, he has attracted interest from such teams as Richard Childress Racing and Team Penske for next season. Truex has also been rumored to join the new Stewart-Haas Racing team for 2009, alongside Tony Stewart.

Certainly, Truex ought to feel like the subject of the Clash’s 1981 hit single, “Should I Stay Or Should I Go?” After the incident at Daytona that left the No. 1 team $100,000 lighter in the wallet and 150 points in the hole, Truex was said to be furious and looking to abandon the only Sprint Cup team he’s ever known for 2009.

However, given the other opportunities available, Truex might be wise to bide his time at DEI. Every available ride that he’s been considering has some sort of major flaw that could seriously damage his championship prospects for 2009 and beyond. So, without further ado, here’s why Martin Truex Jr. should remain with Dale Earnhardt Inc. for the 2009 season:

1. Lack of owners’ points on the No. 33 car

The fourth Childress team has competed in one Sprint Cup Race this season, the Coca-Cola 600 with Ken Schrader behind the wheel. The car will be nowhere near within the top 35 in owners’ points, so Truex would have to qualify for the first five races of the season on speed. With the Daytona 500 qualifying race rules getting more complex by the year, it’s likely that Truex would miss the opening event of the season, if not more events early on. While Truex has a career average start of 18.8 in Sprint Cup, he’s only scored one pole in his career. The insecurity of trying to qualify for races on speed early on in the season with a start-up team is something Truex shouldn’t risk.

2. Team Penske’s consistent underperforming teams

Team Penske in NASCAR is not Team Penske in the Indy Racing League: Since 2004, when the Chase format was first implemented, the NASCAR branch of Penske’s race team has only won nine races. Compare that to 16 IRL wins and one championship in about half as many combined starts. Not only that, since their 1-2 finish at the Daytona 500 this year, the departing Ryan Newman and Kurt Busch have sunk to 16th and 18th in points, respectively, with Truex sandwiched in the middle. Former IRL champion Sam Hornish Jr. 33rd in the team’s third car. Even its status as one of Dodge’s top teams and consistent financial backing have not put Penske in position to win championships. A move to Penske would be a step sideways for Truex.

3. The inevitable trying first season of Stewart-Haas

At this point, both cars that will become S-H vehicles next season are teetering around the 35th place mark in owners’ points, presenting Truex with the same problem he would have at RCR. However, at least RCR won’t have an entire team overhaul next season. As owner, Stewart expects to clear house, making his new team a hodge-podge of collected crewmen and mechanics that may take a while to build chemistry. Even heavy Chevrolet factory support may be unreliable in the wake of the company’s massive forthcoming budget cuts.

4. Everything fits at DEI

Only by staying where he is will Truex be a team’s number one driver - figuratively and literally. He will rank above Aric Almirola and Paul Menard, and Regan Smith if the No. 01 team does not fold. With Mark Martin’s departure for Hendrick Motorsports, the company has an extra $8 million to work with in bringing back Truex for his contract option year. He would remain with longtime crew chief Kevin “Bono” Manion and crew members that saw him to the 2004 and 2005 Nationwide Series championships.

5. Many other, better rides will be open in 2009

The contracts of Kurt Busch, David Ragan, Matt Kenseth, Jamie McMurray, Kevin Harvick, David Gilliland, Juan Pablo Montoya, Brian Vickers, and A.J. Allmendinger are known to expire after the 2009 season. Six of those drivers’ teams are currently in the top 20 in points, with McMurray’s a close 22nd and Gilliland not much further back in 25th. It’s also likely that some other drivers will lose their rides between now and the end of next season. If, say, Harvick decides to follow Stewart’s path into Sprint Cup ownership, Truex could find himself a much better ride just by waiting ’til next year.

By allowing DEI to pick up their option on him for the 2009 season, Truex sets him up for what could potentially be a larger windfall in 2010, with better teams and bigger money. All he needs to do is sit through one more season with the team that gave him his first opportunity in the big leagues before moving on.

Photo Credit: IconSportsMedia.com

Filed under: Dale Earnhardt, Inc., Martin Truex Jr., Penske Racing, Richard Childress Racing, Stewart Haas Racing 

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Comments

6 Responses to “Martin Truex Jr - Should He Stay Or Should He Go?”

  1. User Avatar Charlie Turner on July 18th, 2008 10:41 pm

    I didn’t think anyone could convince me that Truex should, or would even consider staying at, DEI. You make some valid points Chris. I think, though, that Martin may take advantage of his “most favored free-agent” status and move on. DEI looks to be in turmoil, to me.

    Why not Joe Gibbs Racing?

    Very nice post. Welcome aboard.

  2. User Avatar Matt Mercer on July 19th, 2008 1:06 pm

    I’ll play devil’s advocate:

    1. There are plenty of variables that go with moving to a new team - but RCR is an elite team with 3 guys in the Chase, and they’re a team flush with sponsorship. It isn’t out of the question for a team in the top 35 to fold and sell their points and have RCR buy the number - guaranteeing entry into the first 5 races.
    2. Comparing Penske’s teams is a true apples and oranges proposition. The same can be said about Ganassi, but the level of competition is so much greater in NASCAR. There are no Marty Roths in the Sprint Cup series. Penske knows how to win, the pieces just haven’t been fitting as well as they should.
    3. Chevrolet is cutting back on track sponsorships and so forth, and they’ve already invested too much into bringing Smoke back to the team to not see it through. One of the advantages at RCR is true here as well, and that’s sponsorship funds. In addition, he shares the BPS connection with Smoke.
    4. Everything fits at DEI, but that team is a sinking ship that looks to be bought in the next year. Mark Martin is gone, Army may indeed be gone, Paul Menard and his dad’s money looks to be going to the Yates team, and I question how smart it is to drive for a team you know is headed in the opposite direction when you could have jumped elsewhere.
    5. Of the drivers mentioned here, I lock in Busch, Ragan, Kenseth, Harvick, Vickers, and Allmendinger to their present rides. Roush will ship the #26 team and McMurray to Yates most likely, and Colin Braun could be on his way there too. Harvick already owns a team and has stated he will wait to bring it to Cup. Montoya could stay with Ganassi or go elsewhere, but I see Ganassi merging with Michael Waltrip Racing at the end of this year. If he has the opportunity to leave this year and join a team on the upswing or already at the top, I don’t see how he can’t not do it. I think it would waste a year of his career to stay at DEI.

  3. User Avatar Marc on July 19th, 2008 7:33 pm

    Yepper, it “all fits,” — like a size 3 wedding dress on a size 10 bride.

    Get out while the goings good Martin.

    They called me crazy and much worse when I advocated Jr, leave DEI 2 years ago, we all know how that worked out.

  4. User Avatar Steve Wronkowicz on July 20th, 2008 9:39 pm

    Chris welcome to ON PIT ROW.

    You make some valid arguments for MT,Jr to stay at DEI, but if there is one thing I’ve learned over the years, it’s don’t be that last one left standing. The reason the Captain goes down with the ship is because he will be forever suspect to the reasons for the ship sinking. In business decisions like this you’re better off moving on before the ocean swallows you up.

    DEI will not survive without drastic changes, past 2009. lLike Marc said, “Get out while the goings good.”

  5. User Avatar Charlie Turner on July 21st, 2008 9:11 am

    I can’t see Truex moving to a “fourth car” anywhere. Has there ever been a great “fourth team” OK, one time at Roush, when the #6, #17, #16 and Kurt’s #97 were all top ten. That’s the only time. So that takes him out at RCR.

    Nobody bit on my JGR suggestion, and I don’t blame you. It’s either Stewart-Haas (which I doubt) or Penske.

  6. Quick Hits: Michigan International Speedway | Bench Racing With Steve and Charlie on August 14th, 2008 8:33 am

    [...] to find greater continuity in what I write on, as opposed to my past irregular posts on topics from Martin Truex Jr. to why NASCAR needs a stock car series exclusive to road courses. Ever since shifting my focus from [...]

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