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Daytona finish a case of Smoke, the Shrub and a Dodge mirage

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by Charlie Turner

I'm Charlie Turner co-host of the syndicated, mostly NASCAR radio show On Pit Row. Thanks for stopping by OnPitRow.com and the Bench Racing with Steve and Charlie blog. Oh yeah, Steve is an idiot.

February 20, 2008 10:25 am CST No Comments

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Untitled PostThe Dodge’s were strong but they weren’t that strong.  The 50th Daytona 500 was a good one but it was subject to the  restrictor plate roulette that is always part of these long plate races.  This time the ball fell on Ryan Newman and the Dodge Boys’ number.

Ryan Newman and Kurt Busch led a charge of Chargers to six of the top eight spots in the 2008 Daytona 500.  The Joe Gibbs Racing Toyotas of Tony Stewart and Kyle Busch were supposed to be out front at the end as they had taken turns leading much of the race.  Along with teammate Denny Hamlin, the JGR drivers led 134 of the 200 laps.  But on the last lap, a freight train of Dodges including Reed Sorenson, Elliott Sadler, Kasey Kahne, Robby Gordon and Kurt pushed Newman to the win.  Dale Earnhardt Jr., in ninth, was the only Chevy driver in the top twelve and Greg Biffle’s tenth place the only Ford in the top eighteen.  So what does it all mean? Do you believe the Hendrick Motorsports and Childress Racing Chevrolets suddenly suck?  Is the Roush-Fenway-Yates super-team an also-ran that will fill your fantasy racing group C, field-filler picks for the rest of the season?  I say, no way. 

You’d better have been watching closely this past week because restrictor plate tracks are the freak shows of NASCAR. That train of Chargers had a pretty clear path to the front in the high line groove at the end of that race.  The high line has been the winning line most years at Daytona but Stewart had been on his radio earlier telling Kyle Busch that the #20 handled better down low.  That conversation pretty well committed the two Toyotas to the lower line if they were going to help each other.  That left the usually faster high line to Newman and the Dodges and they had it to themselves because of the attrition among most of the other strong contenders.

Matt Kenseth had a Ford that might have won the race. He led it for awhile and then got caught up in a spin by fellow Roushy David Ragan, who does this kind of thing a lot.  Biffle had a good car. A tenth place finish with nobody in a Ford to help push him to the front was probably as good as it could get. Things at the front could have been much different if, say, Kenseth and Casey Mears had been around for the final ten laps or so.  With all of the cautions and re-starts, having someone to pit with and draft with makes a huge difference.  Somebody just might have been able to break up that Dodge train.Picture credit: David Graham-Associated Press

Untitled PostOnward to California Speedway

There won’t be any restrictor plates at Fontana, California this week and California Speedway is a fast two mile clone of Michigan International Speedway.  Don’t forget that when you look at past performances in your picks.  The fields tend to stretch out and cautions are rare, often of the “debris on the track” nature that artificially bunch the field.  Fuel economy and tire wear strategy is always a factor.  Know your crew chiefs – which means guys like Chad Knaus, Steve Letarte and Greg Zipidelli give your driver more bump at Cali than some other tracks.

This is a fast track.  California and MIS always make me think Greg Biffle and Kasey Kahne and they have good Loop Data Driver Ratings of 95.4 and 96.5. Kahne’s numbers across the board are right in line with his DR – Ave. Finish 16.5, 946 Laps in Top 15 and he’s led 10% of all laps the last six races.  Biffle though has led 232 Laps - #2 in category- and has an Ave. Position of 13.5 and a category best 134 fastest laps. Both drivers are past winners at Fontana and Michigan, with Biffle getting two at MIS.Carl Edwards, Tony Stewart and Mark Martin are next with DR’s of 100.6, 101.2 and 103.6.  Martin’s the only one to have won here, but he’s only led 13 laps during the Loop era. His Ave. Position and Ave. Finish are both 8.8.  Edwards has an Ave. Finish of 7.8 which is second best and he’s run 73.4 % of his laps in the top 15.   Stewart has a the best Passing Differential at 114 and he’s led 124 laps. All three of these guys is a Michigan winner – Martin having won there four times . 

Kyle Busch is a past Fontana winner, has a DR of 109.3, has led 14.2 % of all Loop Laps with 214 and has spent 83.7% of his time in the top fifteen.  He looked awful good in Florida too.

Jimmy Johnson sat on the pole in Daytona, but never got it going in the race. Johnson has two wins at California Speedway. He has Loop Data leading stats with 1381 for 91.8% of Laps in Top fifteen, 320 Passes Under Green and an Ave Finish of 5.8. His DR of 111.3 puts him second to Matt Kenseth. 

Kenseth too, is a two time Cali winner. He has a Loop Stat best 244 Laps Led for 16.2% of the last six races, Ave Mid Race Position of 6.0 and Ave. Position of  7.2. His DR is 113.9 and Matt Kenseth has two wins at Michigan as well.  Matt might have won the Daytona 500 last Sunday had Ragan not taken him out.

Jimmy Johnson is never a bad pick but I’ll take Matt Kenseth or Greg Biffle this week.  For a longshot from your C-team, look at J J Yeley or Brian Vickers, both fast drivers in fast Toyotas.    Bram has more Loop Stats over at Backstretch Motorsports.  Check it out. Photo Credit: Rusty Jarrett-Getty Images for NASCAR

Filed under: Carl Edwards, Casey Mears, Clint Boyer, Dale Earnhardt Jr., Daytona 500, Denny Hamlin, Gillette Evernham Motorsports, Greg Biffle, Hendrick Motorsports, J J Yeley, Jeff Burton, Jeff Gordon, Jimmy Johnson, Joe Gibbs Racing, Kasey Kahne, Kevin Harvick, Mark Martin, NASCAR Fantasy Gaming, Red Bull Racing, Reed Sorenson, Robby Gordon, Roush Racing, Ryan Newman, Sprint Cup Series, The Busch Bros, Tony Stewart, Toyota 

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