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Coca Cola sent us this video promoting the Coke Zero 400 Challenge. It’s short and pretty funny. Check it out.

In NASCAR its easy to know who the haves and the have-nots are.

It was announced this week that Dave Blaney’s #22 Bill Davis Racing Toyota was losing Caterpillar as its primary sponsor. Cat has been the primary sponsor with BDR for the past ten years of its seventeen in the sport. The team remains in the 29th spot in the Sprint Cup Series Owners’ points. Veteran crew chief Tommy Baldwin has the team moving in the right direction, picking up 10 championship point positions over the course of five events and has posted two top-10 finishes and six finishes of 22nd or better in the past eight races.

“Caterpillar and Bill Davis Racing have enjoyed a long and successful partnership throughout the last 10 seasons, and we are proud of everything we’ve accomplished together, including wins in both the Daytona 500 and Southern 500,” stated Team Owner Bill Davis. “This is an exciting time for our team, and we are looking forward to the future.”

In a much publicized coup earlier RCR was able to wrangle the General Mills sponsorship away from long time partner Petty Enterprises. That General Mills deal will adorn the new 4th team at RCR with an, as yet, un-named driver. Now securing Caterpillar to replace AT&T on the #31 Jeff Burton ride, puts RCR on solid financial footing. NASCAR mandated that AT&T would only be allowed to remain on the 31 car through the end of the 2008 season.

“To represent a well-known global brand like Caterpillar is an honor,” said Richard Childress, president and CEO of RCR. “Cat products have played a big part over the decades in construction projects at RCR, Childress Vineyards and Yadkin River Angus. Jeff and I look forward to meeting the Cat dealers and customers who loyally follow NASCAR racing.”

With dollars harder and harder to come by, RCR has moved into as solid of a financial situation as any major player in motorsports. Other big name owners have had challenges securing primary sponsorship for the 2008 season. Yates Racing has had trouble filling the hood and quarter panels of its race cars this season. The #38 of David Gilliland has had backing from freecreditreport.com for much of the recent schedule, but didn’t start the season as primary sponsor and most likely is not the biggest benefactor in the garage area. Teammate, Travis Kvapil’s #28 has been void of sponsorship much of the season. These are high profile, storied history, race teams and money is tough to come by.

Robby Gordon will race at Infineon Speedway this weekend with no sponsorship at all. Gordon is no slouch on a road course. The probability of him running well and near the front all day are high. And running near the front means TV time. TV time translates into payback for a sponsor; yet RGM cannot find anyone to invest.

Good luck to Bill Davis Racing trying to replace Cat on the #22, all the while trying to find cash to expand to a full-time two car team in 2009. Could we be seeing the start of more outside investment in a long time NASCAR team, or could team mergers be on the horizon?

Photo credit: BethAnne Heisler/On Pit Row/Bench Racing Productions

I have more fun than should be allowed. Steve and I get to talk to some big-time guests ON PIT ROW every week. Most of the time we get thoughtful, insightful answers to our questions. Every once in a while, we get one that blows us away.

We asked Speed TV’s Robin Miller what he thought of the field for this year’s version of the Indy 500. Though Miller respects many of the drivers, his comment about “milk’n donuts and a bunch of jack-offs” was priceless. If you missed it, you can listen to the whole thing here.

Seems that Robin thinks some of those guys are over-rated. That was the inspiration for my “Loose in Turn 3″ question this week. After you comment on mine, make sue you check out Do You NASCAR and NASCAR Bits and Pieces for more Looseness.

Who is the most under-rated driver in NASCAR and how is he over-looked relative to his talent/value?

Charlie:  Jimmy Johnson is appreciated less than any other multi-time Champion and perennial championship contender.  It is a phenomenon that Steve and I have discussed many times before ON PIT ROW.  In any other team sport, Johnson and the #48 team would be talked of as a dynasty.  In NASCAR, he is often an after-thought.  I think this comes from an impression that JJ’s success is the product of great equipment more than driving talent.  That is just wrong.

Bruce: Jeff Burton: In my mind he’s ignored while he’s turning in consistent finishes to put himself 2nd in the standings. The media HAS to mention him when they count down the top 12 drivers but there’s not much time to cover him when the media has to report everything Kyle Busch or how many races since his Dale Earnhardt Jr.’s last win. Heck for that matter, did you know that David Ragan is 8 points out of 12th? Sorry, I’ve diverged onto a rant… but I think regardless of who we pick, they’re victims of the media focus, or lens as you will.

TZ:  I like both of your answers to the question, but I’ve got to go with Jamie McMurray.  Folks think that just because he made the move to a Roush car that he should be winning all of these races.  The red flags went up when he didn’t even come close to the Chase last year and then when he fell outside of the top-35 after Bristol earlier this year.  To me, it’s just one of those deals that something hasn’t clicked between Jamie and Roush.  But, he’s already climbed himself back up to 22nd in points, and he’s actually still a 2008 Chase hopeful.  Plus, I figure if he can finish in the top-15 in points with Ganassi, then the guy’s obviously got a boat-load of talent.

That’s what we think.  What do you think.  Leave your feedback in the comment section then visit the other guys for their topics.  TZ’s question is…

Joe Gibbs Racing has won four times in the Sprint Cup Series this season, but in two years, they are the only Toyota team to win a race in Cup racing. Will a non-JGR driver reach Victory Lane in 2008? 

Bruce wants to know what you think about…

Hamlin passed a few cars that had avoided slamming into the melee at a rapid rate before hitting Sadler. So my question is more a statement, but I think Denny Hamlin could have avoided hitting as hard as he did because he probably could have slowed down a heck of a lot more… What’s your guys take? 

I chose David Ragan to win the Coca Cola 600 during our picks weekly segment ON PIT ROW this week. What was I thinking? Admittedly that segment of the show is pretty “off the wall”. It isn’t meant to be serious fantasy racing analysis. It’s more about who can “out stupid” whom. Looking at NASCAR’s Loop Data this week makes me think maybe I have a lock on that for the 600. Ragan isn’t even on the sheet!

Now I will admit to being influenced by the Sprint Showdown - the qualifier for the Sprint All Star Race. David finished a strong third, just out of the last transfer spot. Then Sunday I got to watch him - in person - start from the back of a 35 car field and work to the front for third place finish in the ARCA RE/MAX Series race at Toledo Speedway. Plus I talked to him in the infield at Toledo. He’s a nice guy. But 200 laps at the Glass City half mile isn’t even close to 400 at Lowes. I may have over-bought.

If not Ragan, who?

Once again, Jimmy Johnson is the overwhelming leader of the Loop Data stats. If Dave Ragan is a stretch - and he is - then Johnson is a steal if you get to pick him. But J J has looked the part at many other races in 2008 too, only to disappoint. His Driver Rating of 120.2 - nearly 26 points better than second place Kyle Busch - is a big number. He has Series best stats in nine other Box Score categories including Ave Finish of 5.0, Ave Position 7.5, 246 Fastest Laps and 1956 Laps in the Top 15 for 88.6% of the last six Lowes races. Johnson’s 990 Ave Points Gained is 100 pts better than the next highest total - the 899 for Carl Edwards.

The Loop stats for Lowes are a bit strange though. As stated, Kyle Busch has the second best Driver Rating, but his Ave Points Gained per race is only 596 - almost 400 less than Johnson’s total. The Shrub will start from the pole and he has been one of the best this season but the Loop stats don’t point to consistency at Charlotte. His Ave Finish is only 23.5.

Carl Edwards’ Driver Rating, despite the second most Ave Points Gained per race, is even lower than Busch the Younger’s at 88.6. Carl has been strong on the intermediate tracks this year and I expect he’ll do well at Lowes too. Five top tens in his six starts are a good indication.

Veteran Mark Martin has the number three DR at 93.2 and he’s a four time winner at the N Carolina track. There hasn’t been much talk about Martin in 2008. He could make some noise this week though.

Kasey Kahne, winner of the Sprint All Star race and two time Lowes winner has a Driver Rating of 92.9 and has led the most Loop Laps with 338 to Johnson’s 298. If the Thursday ruling on suspension settings by NASCAR doesn’t throw the #9 teams setups off too much, Kahne could be the pick this week.

You can throw a Loop blanket over the next dozen contenders. The only stat of the bunch that jumps out at me is Bobby Labonte’s Ave Points Gained - 812 from the 13th overall DR ranking position.

I haven’t seen enough from the #9 to pick Kahne for a 600 mile race. To me it’s between Johnson and Edwards. I’ll go with Jimmy, the big stat advantage and the five wins. Carl could get his first Lowes win, but I have to see it first.

Dark horse pick - Kurt Busch.

Kevin Harvick was - by all statistical evidence - the right pick for last weeks Sprint Cup race at Richmond International Raceway. It didn’t work out.  Picking winners in NASCAR racing often doesn’t. You can begin to doubt the viability of the stats.

But the drivers who rated right behind Harvick for RIR were two of the most dominant and - as it turned out - controversial guys in the event.

Denny Hamlin led 381 of the 400 race laps but finished 24th - due to a tire going down under green and his attempt to draw a caution. The controversial part came of that try for a yellow flag.

Kyle Busch finished second. He got there by - some say - driving through Dale Earnhardt Jr while going for the win. There has been plenty of hash and re-hash on that subject.

Harvick had a dominant position in the NASCAR Loop stats for RIR. The spread between drivers at Darlington Raceway is tighter and there are only three races in the Loop database for the Lady in Black.

Fantasy Picks for the Track too Tough to Tame

Some weeks ago, Steve and I interviewed several of the NASCAR internet community’s most knowledgeable writers for our first 7 Post Podcast.  We asked each of our guests who their pick would be for Darlington in May.  Most chose Greg Biffle.  Goodyear had just completed the spring tire test at the South Carolina track.  The news that Biffle had topped 200 mph on the back stretch was big.  Maybe that was an influence on the picks.  Or perhaps those blogger folks are pretty smart too.

Gregg Biffle has the top Driver Rating of 126.1. He is the top dog in Fastest Laps with 141 and Laps Led at 346 or 31.3% of the last three races at Darlington. Greg has the second most Laps in the Top Fifteen the third best Ave Running Position of 5.2. Top those numbers with three top tens and two wins and The Biff looks good this week.

Jimmy Johnson looks good every week, doesn’t he? Second best Driver Rating, Fastest Laps, Laps Led and the top Ave Finish of 2.3 make it so again. JJ has two top fives and eight top tens.

Hamlin has only raced twice in Loop races at the Lady. He has the third best DR of 119.2 in those two and two top fives and four top tens all together. Joe Gibbs Racing teammate Busch has only one top ten ever and a Driver Rating of 85.7 which is 13th.

Darlington has been good to Ryan Newman. Ryan is fourth in DR with 116.4 and number one in Ave Running Position of 4.951. Five top fives and six top tens show his consistency at this track.

Jeff Gordon has gained more total Loop Points per Darlington race than anyone else - 540 compared to Biffle’s 498 - and has the best Ave Finish - 1.7 - and Laps in the Top Fifteen - 1091 for 98.8%. Gordon is also a seven time winner here. Yikes!

Earnhardt Jr, Carl Edwards and Kasey Kahne all have similar DR’s - 99.6, 98.8 and 97.8 respectively. None of the three has ever won at Darlington. The only Loop stat that jumps out is that Junior has zero Laps Led.

I’m going with Jeff Gordon as my fantasy pick. That Ave Finish stat of 1.7 and his top Ave Points Gained combined with his history at the track and the fact that he is, well, Jeff Freakin’ Gordon finish the self-argument for me.

If you want a driver outside the Loop stat top ten, take Jeff Burton.Steady Jeff has two wins, eight top fives and fourteen top tens at Darlington to support his 2008 success.

My dark-horse pick is Bobby Labonte - hopefully in that Speed Racer-painted #43 again.

Photo credit: Icon Sports Media, Inc.

Is Tony Stewart going to leave Joe Gibbs Racing and if he is, what does that mean for the rest of 2008?  Those are the big questions that the NASCAR community is dealing with this week.  What seemed like just another rumor ON PIT ROW a week ago has grown to ominous status since Talladega.  The latest evidence seems to have Stewart heading for a different - likely Chevy powered - organization. Mike Mulhern has a good read on that and the other dominoes ready to fall in the 2008 silly season.

Stewart has the fourth best Richmond Loop Data Driver Rating going into the weekend in Virginia.  His 102.2 trails his red-hot teammates Kyle Busch at 109.00 and Denny Hamlin with 111.3.  Stewart is a three time winner at Richmond while the others are win-less.  Get this - Stewart’s career Ave Finish at RIR is a very good 11.3.  But Busch and Hamlin have averaged 6.2 and 6.5 respectively.  The scenario bodes well for Joe Gibbs Racing but be honest.  Do you pick Tony over the two youngsters?

Kurt Busch has the fifth best Driver Rating at 100.8 and has a win and six top tens.  But Kurt’s 2008 looks like a write-off year for the Blue Deuce.  I pass.

Dale Earnhardt Jr captured his last Cup Series win at Richmond two years ago and he has three wins total here.  Junior sits tenth in the Loop with a DR of 89.9 - do you sense a quicker drop off than most weeks?  Earnhardt trails four big names who have had, more or less undistinguished first nine races this year.  Matt Kenseth, Ryan Newman and Kasey Kahne are Richmond winners.  Greg Biffle is not. The best Ave Finish of the bunch is Newman’s 10.0.  The most impressive Loop stat of the group is Kasey Kahne’s 249 laps led in the last six races.

Jeff Gordon, Jimmy Johnson, Jeff Burton and Carl Edwards are all well back in the Loop pack, although Gordon and Johnson have led 305 and 213 Loop laps respectively.  Johnson swept the races last year and Gordon (2) and Burton are RIR winners.  This has not been a good track for Cousin Carl.

Any one of those drivers could win this race.  So could Martin Truex Jr,  Mark Martin or Clint Bowyer.  I just can’t pick  those guys if I base my choice on Loop stats.

The stud this week  is Kevin Harvick.  Happy leads the Loop Driver Rating at 121.2 - ten points better than second place.  In fact he tops out in more than half of the Loop Box Score categories.  His Ave Position is 5.6 and Ave Finish 5.5. Harvick had 259 Fastest Laps, 2267 (94.5%) Laps in the Top Fifteen and 599 Laps Led - 25% of all of the laps run the last six races. No driver is even close.

Kevin Harvick has been very steady this year.  This looks like the week to break through with a win.  For a dark horse I’ll take Virginia native Elliott Sadler.  Those GEM cars are looking better lately and home cookin’ can’t hurt.

Photo credit: Icon Sports Media, Inc.

Jimmy Johnson says that Talladega Super Speedway is the perfect race track for NASCAR’s new car. JJ claims that the new pavement and the wide open spaces of Talladega will make for exciting four-wide racing, with more drivers taking chances in the relatively early championship season. The fall race - the first CoT restrictor plate experiment - was notably boring. Jimmy blamed that on a tight, late season, Chase for the Cup which forced drivers to be protective of their point standings and eschew risking involvement in Talladega’s famous “big one” wreck.

Johnson went on to say that the #48 team’s win at Phoenix International Raceway in the Cup Series’ most recent race was a confidence booster but maybe as important was the team’s second place finish the week before at Texas Motor Speedway. Success on the intermediate Super Speedways has lagged behind Hendrick Motorsports’ prowess on short tracks, road courses and plate tracks.

All of that adds up to a confident defending Cup Series Champion. But Johnson doesn’t have the best NASCAR Loop stats at Talladega. He is in fact tied for sixth best Driver Rating with Denny Hamlin. Neither driver leads any of the significant Loop stat categories. Johnson has led only 38 laps in the last six races at the Alabama track while Hamlin had 90 in only four races. Johnson’s results are more impressive with one win, four top fives and five top tens. Hamlin has one top five finish.

The Once and Future King of Talladega

The current king of Talladega is Johnson’s teammate Jeff Gordon. His top Driver rating of 98.5 is supported by Loop leading Ave. Mid Race Position of 8.3 and significantly, 300 laps led - 26.3% of all Loop laps - by far the most of any driver. Add in six career wins, 13 top fives and 16 top tens. Gordon would be the easy pick this week.

Kurt Busch has the second best Driver Rating at 95.0 and has the best Ave Finish and Position - 5.8 and 11.3. His 890 laps in the top 15 - 78.1% - and 1794 Quality Passes are series best as well. Busch has six top fives and 11 top tens at Talladega but has never won a restrictor plate race. The Blue Deuce has had a poor 2008 so far. There hasn’t been much evidence to make me think this will be the turn-a-round week.

Tony Stewart is third in Driver Rating at 93.1. Smoke has eight top fives, 11 top tens and zero ‘Dega wins. It’s hard to believe he can be kept out of victory lane much longer - this season or at this track.

The other drivers in the Talladega top five are Jamie McMurray and Brian Vickers. There’s nothing fluky about it either as they both have solid stats. First, they’ve both won restrictor plate races - McMurray at Daytona last July and Vickers at Talladega in 2006. Their Loop Driver Ratings are 92.6 and 91.5. Jamie has three top fives and four top tens while Vickers owns two top fives and three top tens at TSS.

Dale Earnhardt Jr is always a tempting choice at a plate race. He is a five time winner with seven top fives and nine top tens to temper his 11th best Driver Rating of 81.2. Junior was the top finishing Hendrick Motorsport driver at Daytona and he has been running up front all 2008 long. It would be hard to pick a more likely place for Jr to break his winless streak than at Talladega.

Who else? Points leader Jeff Burton is right behind Earnhardt with the 12th best DR of 79.3. Two top fives and ten top tens are pretty stout, but five DNF’s indicate plenty of involvement in Dega’s big ones.

Kevin Harvick has been a rock so far in 2008. His Driver Rating is 13th at 76.3 for Talladega and he has three top fives and seven top tens. Harvick is winless at Talladega - as are all of the other top twelve in Cup Series points besides Johnson and Jr. But Harvick won at Daytona and knows how to stay out of trouble with no DNF’s in 14 Talladega races.

This one looks like a Hendrick Motorsports win to me. I’m thinking Junior gets his win. Dark horse pick - McMurray.

Photo credit: Icon Sports Media, Inc.

Phoenix International Raceway has hosted two of the sixteen Car of Tomorrow races in 2007 and a couple of test sessions for the Sprint Cup new car. It is one of the tracks where the teams have some data, real race experience and an off-season to work on things.

Hendrick Motorsports pretty much owned the CoT races in 2007. You could say they owned the whole ‘07 season but for sure the CoT tracks. Jack Roush famously admitted last year to being “caught out” when it came to testing and developing the new machine. Roush’s Carl Edward’s results so far in 2008 seem to indicate that Jack has caught up with and perhaps surpassed the Hendricks . Carl has three wins in the all-new car series and could have had a fourth. That’s close to domination of the seven races so far but the good result have come on the super speedways, not the two short tracks. Phoenix, at a mile in length, isn’t a short track but it’s no cookie-cutter or two-miler either.

Trying to predict performance by analyzing statistics from past races is dicey enough anytime. This track, this time around is especially tough.

Once again, Jimmy Johnson has the top Loop Data stats based on the last six races at Phoenix. Johnson is at the top of the Loop in Ave Mid Race Position, Ave Position and Finish. He’s run 1758 laps - 93.9% in the Top Fifteen and has the best Driver Rating at 115.9

By contrast, Jeff Burton leads only the Passes Under Green category, has spent only 63.8 % of his PIR Loop laps in the Top Fifteen and has a driver rating of 86.1 - 14th best.

What have you done for me lately?

What’s the point? It’s this - Phoenix Loop Data are for the last six races there. Loop Data for the first seven races of 2008 are “what have you done lately” numbers. Jeff Burton tops the season-to-date Loop stuff. At least he has accumulated the highest total points in the Loop Box Score categories for 2008. Burton leads only one other stat and that is an Ave Finish of 7.1, which makes sense since he leads the Sprint Cup Series in points.

Johnson is rated a respectable sixth for 2008, but doesn’t lead in any single category. Does a combination of a first at the track and sixth for the season make you lean more to JJ this week?

Carl Edwards has won three races this season but is rated only seventh best in the 2008 Loop-to-date. Even with three wins in seven events, Carl’s Ave Finish is 12.7 for the year, indicating inconsistency. He has the best Ave Position for 2008 and tops the Number of Fastest Laps Run - 312 for 15.7%. He’s rated seventh best overall at PIR with no category bests.

Kyle Busch has the top Driver Rating, Ave Mid-Race Position, Quality Passes and Laps Led for 2008. Phoenix hasn’t been as kind though, with a twelfth overall and no top numbers.

Kurt Busch has been good at PIR as has Jeff Gordon. Both are in the top four with Driver Ratings of 103.7 and 107.0. But 2008 has been a totally different story as Gordon is 14th and Busch 15th overall. Too many DNF’s for both ex-champs.

Two drivers put together a perfecta of PIR and 2008 Loop Stats that challenge Jimmy Johnson’s combo.

Tony Stewart ranks fifth in PIR DR at 103.5, he is at the top of a couple of the passing categories and actually has the fourth highest Ave Points Gained per race. Match that up with fifth best 2008 Loop stats. Smoke’s Driver Rating for ‘08 is second to Kyle Busch at 104.8 and he’s led 289 laps.

But the driver I like this week is Kevin Harvick who combines the second best Driver Rating, Laps in Top Fifteen and Laps Led in the PIR Loop era with the runner-up Loop Box Score rating for the year-to-date.

Johnson, Stewart and Harvick are all win-less for 2008 and that can’t last much longer. All three have won at Phoenix though- Harvick twice. It looks to me like this week’s winner comes from these three and I’ll take Happy.

Watch JJ Yeley for a C-teamer. That Hall of Fame Racing Camry is going to come around and home cooking might put a talented driver over the top.

Photo credit: Icon Sports Media, Inc.

Texas Motor Speedway has a famous, and pretty funny, billboard ad campaign featuring different NASCAR drivers. The Dale Earnhardt Jr version created enough controversy early this year to cause a change in the ad copy. The original took a shot at Teresa Earnhardt and that was determined to be too tacky. A shame really, that they changed the original. It was funny and people ought to be able to laugh at themselves and the circumstances that they create. Not my call though. Too bad.

There is a Tony Stewart version too. Tony’s says ” Reason #20 - road rage“. Not as funny or clever as the Earnhardt Jr ad, but maybe it is descriptive of Smoke’s state of mind going to Texas. 2008 has been a mixed bag for the Home Depot Toyota.

Stewart is in sixth place in the Sprint Cup standings which is good. He is the only member of the Joe Gibbs Racing trio without a victory and that is not so good. Tony has led 289 2008 laps, second only to teammate Kyle Busch and he trails only Daytona 500 winner Ryan Newman in total earnings. We don’t need to take up a collection.

Maybe Texas Motor Speedway will be the venue where Stewart breaks the 2008 ice. He has the top Loop Data Driver Rating of 109.3. Stewart also has series best stats of 437 Laps Led - 21.8 % of all laps in the last six Texas races - 195 Fastest Laps and 88.9% of his laps run have been in the top fifteen (1786 total). But Tony has never won at the Texas mile-and-a-halfer. In fact he’s had only two top fives, to go with six top tens in eleven tries at TMS. For once, the Loop Data leader does not look like a prohibitive favorite to win.

Editor’s note: Stewart did win at TMS.  Here’s the story.

Loop Stats may not tell the story this week

Speaking of favorites, the guy who usually resides at the top of the 2007 stats, Jimmy Johnson, shows up second in Driver Rating for TMS. But this is one track JJ’s stats don’t make competitors cringe. At 104.1 he trails Stewart by more than five points and, for a change, has no series leading stats. In eight races Johnson has six top tens, three top fives and one win.

Matt Kenseth is right on Johnson’s heals with a Loop DR of 103.2 and has 5 top fives, including one win, in ten races at TMS. Matt’s Ave Loop Finish is a series leading 6.5 and that goes with the top Ave Mid Race Position of 5.5. Look for Kenseth up front Sunday.

Martinsville winner Denny Hamlin is the fourth rated TMS Loop driver. Hamlin has finished in the top ten in three of his five Texas starts and has a career ave finish 9.8. The Toyotas have looked strong in the super speedway races. Hamlin is the only driver in the field with a win streak to protect. He should be strong here.

Dale Earnhardt Jr has good looking stats at the Texas track including a win and six top tens in ten starts. His Driver Rating of 97.2 is right behind Kurt Busch’s 98 flat, but I like Junior better in the Hendrick Chevy than I do Kurt in the slumping Penske Dodge. In nine starts, Busch has six top tens but remains winless and looked mostly bad so far this season.

According to Fox Sports.com, Martin Truex Jr has an Ave Finish of 6.6 while the NASCAR Loop has him at 9.4 and a Driver Rating of 95.7. Either way Texas has been one of Martin’s best tracks. He has flirted with the top ten in points this year, but has just one top ten finish. I can’t see picking him over the other top Loopers.

Jeff Gordon, Greg Biffle and Carl Edwards round out the top ten in Loop DR. Of the three, Edwards is the scariest to see in your mirrors with two wins on somewhat similar tracks and a strong early run at very similar Atlanta Motor Speedway. That said, both Biffle and Gordon will win sometime before too long and this could be the week.

Does it sound like I’m waffling in my analysis? I am. I don’t like what the Loop stats are saying this week. What - or rather who - I like is Jeff Burton in the RCR #31 Chevy. All three RCR drivers are grouped with DR’s of 83.0 to 85.6. Kevin Harvick is the highest and Clint Bowyer the lowest. Right in the middle, almost where you would expect him to be is Burton at 83.1. But he sits on top of the 2008 Sprint Cup standings and has one win, three top fives and four top tens in six starts this year. Burton is also a two time winner at TMS. Mark it down, Burton to win.

Watch Dave Blaney and Brian Vickers to emerge from the field. Both are fast at fast tracks and maybe just due for the wind to change for them.

Photo credit: Icon Sports Media, Inc.

How much should a couple of five race streaks - of less than stellar results - in the most recent events affect your picks in the races that follow? Jimmy Johnson and Jeff Gordon, 2007’s most dominant drivers in Cup competition, sit 13th and 14th respectively in the point standings for 2008. That’s not terrible for anyone else, but for JJ and Jeffy, it’s almost shocking.

Defending Cup champ Johnson’s team is really struggling. Other than a solid second place finish at California, where he led a bunch of laps on day one before the rains came, this season has been very un-Johnson-like and un-Chad Knauss-like as well, for the two-time Cup winning crew chief. The #48 team recently tested for seven straight days - an indication of both their determination to turn the season around before it gets away and an acknowledgment of real problems with the team.

Jeff Gordon trails Johnson by seven points but the #24 team has looked better getting to this point than their garage-mates in the #48. Gordon finished third to Johnson’s second at Cali but Jeff has been in position to win other races this year. The problem has been finishing races at all. Two DNF’s have hurt. The big wreck at Las Vegas hurt alot.

If you look at any statistical measure in evaluating drivers for the upcoming Goody’s Cool Orange 500 this week at Martinsville Speedway, Jeff Gordon and Jimmy Johnson jump out once again as the stats-on favorite picks to win. Those stats are based upon results from past years though. In the case on NASCAR’s Loop Data, which is mostly what we use in this column, the numbers are compiled for the last six races, covering the three years that the scoring loops have been measured. But how much do you discount that old data based on the performance of the first five races this year? Is momentum, or the lack of it, for real?

Jeff Gordon leads all active drivers with six poles and seven wins at the VA paper clip. He has 24 top tens, 18 top fives and series highs of 342 Fastest Laps Run and Drivers Rating of 124.5. He has an incredible Ave. Finish of 2.3 in the last six races.

Gordon’s teammate is pretty close. Four wins - including the last three races there - eight top fives and eleven top tens wrapped around a Driver Rating of 120.8 and 296 Fastest Laps Run. Johnson’s Ave. Finish in the Loop era is 2.8.

So, who else can win at Martinsville?

There is one competitor who can challenge the stats of the Hendricks duo and Tony Stewart is the guy. Stewart has two Martinsville wins, six top fives and ten top tens. His third best Driver Rating of 119.3 is close to Johnson’s and Tony has a series high Ave. Running Position of 5.9. Stewart has run 89.8% of his laps during the Loop era (2700 total) in the top fifteen. The #20 hasn’t won a race yet in 2008 but Stewart is in 7th place in the points with two top fives and one DNF.

Tony Stewart’s Joe Gibbs Racing teammates have the next highest Martinsville Driver Ratings with Kyle Busch edging Denny Hamlin 98.0 to 96.5. Hamlin has had two top five and four top ten finishes in five Martinsville appearances. Sprint Cup Series leader Busch has three top fives and four top tens out of six starts. Hamlin has a better Ave. Finish and more Fastest Laps Run - 11.2 and 98 - than Kyle.

But Kyle is having the better 2008. Not only is he leading the points, he has Toyota’s only win and has been a factor at every Cup race and, just about, every NASCAR sanctioned event period. You gotta like Kyle at least a little for Martinsville.

Dale Earnhardt Jr has a Driver Rating of 95.8 and seven career top fives at Martinsville. His series leading 166 Quality Passes may or may not mean much, but the fact that he is driving Hendrick Motorsports’ most successful 2008 car certainly does. Junior sits fifth in Series points after five races but he is winless at the Virginia short track.

The Driver Rating drop-off is pretty sharp after Earnhardt. Ryan Newman, Kevin Harvick and Kurt Busch’ DR’s range from 89.1 to 88.5. Of the three, only Busch has won here, but Kurt’s Ave Finish of 20.3 indicates some DNF’s go with his two top fives and four top tens. I want to pick Harvick but the Ave Finish of 19.3 stops me. He does have five top tens though.

Newman might be the guy to pick from the “B” pool. Five top fives, two poles go with two DNF’s to make an Ave Finish of 14.0. Ryan is due, unless you believe that Daytona was a fluke. I don’t.

The other driver with buzz right now is Bristol winner, Mr. Solid, Jeff Burton. He’s fourth in points and has nine top fives and thirteen top tens in twenty seven Martinsville starts. His Loop Driver Rating of 81.0 doesn’t inspire, but he’s the only guy out there that can win two in a row.

Want a sleeper? Take Jamie McMurray. Driver Rating of 83.5 is tenth best with respectable Ave Finish of 16.8. He’s motivated and has good equipment. The problem is he’s thirty sixth in owner’s points and he has to qualify on speed, so he won’t have much practice time in race set-up. On second thought, take Jeremy Mayfield.

Picture credit: Icon Sports Media, Inc.

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