Great NASCAR race action caught at the final Camping World Truck Series event, the Ford 200, Friday night at Homestead-Miami Speedway.

Photo credit: Kevin Cable for OnPitRow.com

We have a two-way battle for the championship between Carl Edwards and Tony Stewart, and if either of them win the race, they win the title. It’s as simple as that. Both drivers are on top of their game, unlike last year, when Jimmie Johnson was able to psyche out Denny Hamlin relatively easily. Stewart’s been engaging Edwards pretty heavily in the media, but Edwards doesn’t seem too worried about it.

Perhaps it’s because neither of Stewart’s two Homestead wins came on this track layout. While Smoke dominated the early years of its Cup history, winning the inaugural race in 1999 and again in 2000, track ownership altered its shape and banking in 2003. Since then, Roush Fenway Racing has basically owned the track, winning six of the last seven races there. The last two of those wins, in 2008 and 2010, went to Edwards.

Or perhaps it’s because Edwards is just better at Homestead. Stewart’s got a good track record, with two wins and six top-10s in 12 starts and an average finish of 12.4. But Edwards has two wins and six top-10s of his own in only seven races run. His average finish is 5.7. That’s off the wall. That’s the kind of average finish that will give you 1:2 odds in Vegas.

And yet, Stewart’s won a title under the Chase format before. Edwards hasn’t. Stewart has the advantage of having been in Edwards’ position in 2005 and knowing what throws a leader’s mindset off. He’s got all the confidence in the world - he just needs to execute.

Ignore the change in points formatting before this season. This championship could, theoretically, end in a tie (which would go to Stewart on the strength of more wins). It could be separated by only one or two points, which, under the old system, would still be a narrower margin of victory than Kurt Busch’s eight point win in 2004. Either way, it’s a very slim chance that Sunday becomes a gimme for either driver.

So get your popcorn ready, folks. We’re about to witness history.

Sam Hornish Jr won the 2011 WypAll 200 NASCAR Nationwide Series race Saturday at Phoenix International Raceway.

One win in almost six seasons of NASCAR.

But Hornish won 19 races in eight seasons of IndyCar (CART and IRL) including three championships. He won the 2006 Indianapolis 500. He’s a helluva good driver.

Watching Hornish hold off his teammate Brad Keselowski over the last 25 laps, I was on the edge of my seat. I can’t remember wanting a driver to hold on more than I did Saturday. It wasn’t a big race in relative terms and the result had little to do with history making. It didn’t save a career, or validate anything. But it felt good to me.

Congratulations Sam Hornish Jr and Penske Racing. Now go get some more.

Photo credit:  Jonathan Ferrey/Getty Images for NASCAR

Smoke has won four of the eight 2011 Chase races, including the last two. And even though Edwards leads in the standings, it is the Stewart wins at Martinsville and Texas that have driven a spike through the heart of Jimmie Johnson’s six year reign of NASCAR terror.

Put the garlic away NASCAR Nation - Count Johnson is dead - metaphorically. Even Jeff Gordon will be able to sleep at night again - actually.

What? You think I’m over reacting? With 30 laps to go at TMS whom do you think Stewart and Jack Roush were watching closer - Kevin Harvick and The Kez, or Count Five Time?

But it’s over. The people of Transylvania and Dixie can open their windows at night and turn on the Speed Channel again. No more Sunday nightmares. California Dreamin’ will be sung by the Beach Boys again, not Chad and Jimmie.

But seriously, Johnson and the #48 team had an unbelievable run, there’s nothing supernatural about it. Just a great team, and a magic time. I just have one question.

Has anybody ever seen Johnson’s reflection in a mirror?

Photo credit: Round girl Cyndi by BethAnne Heisler for OnPitRow.com

Ideally, Gossage would love to see the points lead change hands today. It’ll make the race one of the most interesting ones in the Chase, but mostly it’ll help him sell even more tickets to this race in the future. And, if it happens again, it’ll firmly entrench Texas as perhaps the most pivotal race in the Chase.

Remember what happened last season. Denny Hamlin took the win in this race after leading 31 laps, inheriting the points lead in a 47-point swing from Jimmie Johnson, who finished ninth. That’s roughly an 11-point swing under this year’s point system, which would be good enough to give Stewart the lead if he did the same thing.

Then again, perhaps that wouldn’t be such a good omen. The only driver to take the title after winning at Texas was Johnson in 2007 since this race was established in 2005. Edwards took the checkers in 2008, only to finish second in points; Hamlin did the same thing last year. Edwards was too far back in the Chase to catch Johnson, though he would have won the championship under a non-Chase format. Meanwhile, Hamlin blew it the next week at Phoenix and gave the point lead right back.

Whoever wins today, though, Gossage probably hopes they’re leaving with the points lead. Stewart could do it easily; Kevin Harvick, Brad Keselowski, and even spring Texas race winner Matt Kenseth could do it with a bit of luck. Today should be a Texas-sized shootout, and Gossage is loving every second of it.

Danica Patrick is a helluva driver. She’s also a marketing person’s dream. Funny too. Now she’s officially a ten. No more argument.

Photo credit: Getty Images for NASCAR

Chances are, one of three drivers will take the checkered flag this weekend - Jeff Gordon, Jimmie Johnson, or Denny Hamlin - but in a trying year for Hamlin, it seems unlikely that this will be the event to turn his Chase around. Johnson, on the other hand, seems more likely, having won Martinsville’s Chase race four times in five years between 2004 and 2008.

In fact, the 2006 win may have been the biggest turning point for Johnson in his first Chase title run. Johnson had finished second in the previous event at Charlotte, but was still seventh in points. But at Martinsville, Johnson scored his first win of the 2006 Chase, leapfrogging to third in points. In the same race, points leader Jeff Burton’s engine failure marked the beginning of the end of his title hopes, dropping him to fifth in points. (He would eventually finish seventh in the Chase.)

Last year, however, Martinsville proved more of a detriment for Johnson. He still finished fifth, but polesitter Hamlin took the lead on lap 471 of 500, for the first time since the start of the race, and took the victory. What was already a slim points lead shrunk even further, as Johnson’s 41 points on Hamlin before the race decreased to six. (Under the current points system, that’s about a one point lead.) Suddenly, the four-time defending champions appeared vulnerable; two weeks later, Hamlin held the points lead.

Martinsville, then, could prove a pivotal race for any driver who takes the victory. Matt Kenseth, Brad Keselowski, or Tony Stewart could take the victory and close in on Carl Edwards, or Kevin Harvick, Kyle Busch, or even Johnson could use a win (plus some tough luck for the top four) to propel themselves back into the title fight.

It’s Talladega Super Speedway and for the first time in my memory - and maybe ever - there is worry that The Big One won’t happen like it used to.

There are five races left in the 2011 Chase to the Sprint Cup. This might be the most important. It will be a decider for some. The eliminator for a few.

NASCAR is playing with restrictor plate sizes. Drivers are not talking trash. Just get through it.

It’s a potential fluke race. Wild card, we call it. Pressure is what it is.

I can’t wait. I may try to sleep until the last five laps. But it won’t work. I’ll be on the edge of my chair, just like always. I hope you will too.

Photo credit: Round girl Cindi by BethAnne Heisler for OnPitRow.com

Photo credit: Jordan Tabak - OnPitRow.com

Jimmie Johnson pit lane New Hampshire

The track used to be called Lowe’s Motor Speedway, and while that was due to a contract between the hardware store and the track, it might as well have been the case because Lowe’s driver Jimmie Johnson owned it in the early years of the Chase. Johnson won the first two Chase races at Charlotte, in 2004 and 2005, and used a win there in 2009 to pull away from Mark Martin in that year’s title hunt.

But Johnson isn’t the only Hendrick Motorsports driver to put on a show at Charlotte. Jeff Gordon scored his first career win in the 1994 Coca-Cola 600, but it was in 2007 when Gordon took a Chase victory after inheriting the lead from Ryan Newman, who crashed in the race’s final laps. Gordon must be cursing the format, though; while he still led the Chase points by 68 over Johnson after that race, he would’ve had almost a 500 point lead under the old system.

Last year’s winner wasn’t a Chase driver, but his ability to win directly influenced the structure of the Chase this year. By taking last year’s Bank of America 500, Jamie McMurray scored wins at the three most prominent tracks on the NASCAR schedule - Daytona, Indianapolis, and Charlotte. It was in response to this that NASCAR set aside the final two Chase spots for “wild card” drivers - the two drivers with the most wins between 11th and 20th in points. (McMurray was 14th after Richmond and would have made it in under this system.)