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Who Will Be the Sprint Cup’s Next First-time Winner?

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by Charlie Turner

I'm Charlie Turner co-host of the syndicated, mostly NASCAR radio show On Pit Row. Thanks for stopping by OnPitRow.com and the Bench Racing with Steve and Charlie blog. Oh yeah, Steve is an idiot.

May 30, 2008 9:32 am CDT 6 Comments

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Martin Truex Jr grabbed his first and, so far only, Cup Series win at Dover Downs in 2007.  By my count, he was one of three drivers to accomplish that feat last year - Casey Mears and Clint Bowyer were the others.

I’m looking at the line up for this week’s tilt at the Monster Mile and wondering who will be the next first timer.  The answer is not obvious.  David Ragan would seem the best bet.  He drives for one of the major teams, as did all of 2007’s first time winners.  Ragan has lately been running up front and looked like a contender at Charlotte.  But who else.  Is there anybody else?

Before his injury, Dario Franchitti would have been my pick if only because of the two road courses where he should be one of the contenders.  His lost seat-time may not hurt his chances at Sonoma and the Glen, but it steepens the learning curve elsewhere.

Fellow Dodger Reed Sorenson looked strong coming out of Daytona.  Since then though, his team has been a big part of Ganassi’s funk.  The stirring of that pot by Chip doesn’t bode well for the Target car.

Dave Blaney is the only non winner in a Toyota who seems a candidate.  A J Allmendinger didn’t convince me at Lowes.  David Reutimann looks like a journeyman.

Who do you like in a Chevy?  All of 2007’s virgin winners were Bowtie Boys.  But who’s left?  Regan Smith?  Too soon and not enough chances.  Same for Aric Almirola.  The Haas CNC teams probably killed their chances by losing crew and car chiefs for six races.

No, the next winner looks to be a Ford man.  If not Ragan then maybe one of the Yates guys.  Travis Kvapil looks primed.

Filed under: Casey Mears, Chip Ganassi Racing, Clint Boyer, David Ragan, David Reutimann, Ganassi Racing with Felix Sabates, Haas CNC Racing, It's Only Cheating if You Get Caught, Martin Truex Jr., Red Bull Racing, Reed Sorenson, Robert Yates Racing, Sprint Cup Series 

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Comments

6 Responses to “Who Will Be the Sprint Cup’s Next First-time Winner?”

  1. mike on May 30th, 2008 11:23 am

    Montoya was a first-timer last year too. Ragan has a chance and has run really well lately, but after him it’s a very steep dropoff.

  2. RevJim on May 30th, 2008 1:02 pm

    Charlie, I like your picks. I think David Ragan is poised to win, but so is Travis Kvapil. Blaney has been poised to win for thirteen years, maybe he can finally get his first win sometime this year, but probably not at Dover.

  3. User Avatar Marc on May 30th, 2008 3:20 pm

    David Ragan, there is no other driver close unless something weird happens.

    Like a 20 pile-up in turn 4 of the last lap.

  4. NASCAR ~ Dover Astro-Predictions « The Church of the Great Oval on May 31st, 2008 12:10 am

    [...] On Pit Row’s Charlie Turner  is looking at David Ragan, or Travis Kvapil, as the next first timer. [...]

  5. okla21fan on May 31st, 2008 8:32 am

    Yates Racing seems to be getting stronger each week. Both drivers are on the fringe of becoming contenders as well. But Reagan is the front runner.

  6. User Avatar Charlie Turner on June 1st, 2008 12:01 am

    Yeah Mike, JPM won on a road course and that’s the wild-card here. A healthy Franchitti, Carpentier or even Boris Said could join the winner ranks at either of the roadies, just as Juan did. And I do like the Yates drivers. But Ragan seems over his wrecklessness and I’d be surprised if he wasn’t the next guy. After these though, I agree with Marc. The drop-off is precipitous. After what I saw today, I might just bet on Joey Logano if I had to put money on a first-time winner.

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