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Stop Bogartin’ That Cup Jimmie Johnson: NASCAR Fantasy Racing Advice

by Charlie Turner

Thanks for stopping by OnPitRow.com and the Bench Racing with Steve and Charlie blog. The best NASCAR and IndyCar news and opinion, exclusive pictures and video. I'm Charlie Turner. Follow me on Twitter @onpitrow

March 24, 2011 12:19 pm UTC No Comments

On Pit Row’s Weekly NASCAR Newsletter

Just go ahead and pick him. Jimmie Johnson is not just A stud, but he is THE stud at Auto Club Speedway. Johnson has led more than twice as many laps as his closest competitor – Matt Kenseth – over the last 12 races at Fontana. His Average finish is 4.3 and the the next closest, again Kenseth, is 9.2. He has been passed, under green flag conditions, less than any other driver to race the last 12 at ACS. Just pick him and start worrying about Martinsville.

One and Done players, I feel your frustration. Believe me, I live it. You all know that we have been dealing with a bug in the game. The bug does not affect the registering of picks or scores. Inside the game, all picks are being recorded and scores kept. The issue, as explained to me by the programmer who built the game, is a display issue. Basically, the “scoreboard” is broke, not the game. I hope that by the time you read this, everything will be back and working as it should. We’re working on it. But keep me away from sharp objects.

Discovered a new NASCAR blog written by Branden williams and called The Pace Lap. I like it and I think you might too. Check it out here “Like” him, “Follow” him and leave Branden some comments.

The re-boot of the On Pit Row show – I still want to call it a radio show, but it is’t – continues and this week Jeff Hammond, of Fox Sports and Speed TV joined us for an extended interview. Jeff was one of our first Big Time guests about 10 years ago and has been a semi-regular ever since. He’s always good and this week was really great. Watch the Jeff Hammond interview here. You can watch On Pit Row on Ustream anytime so join our crowd at Ustream TV here.

Ryan Rantz was our fantasy racing expert guest On Pit Row this week. Ryan shared some great fantasy advice for the Auto Club 400. Watch Ryan’s interview here. Good stuff.

Auto Club Speedway Fantasy Racing Advice

Auto Club Speedway

Feedback, feedback, feedback. Whether it’s a comment on a blog post, hitting the “Like” button on our Facebook page or following our writers on Twitter, believe me – it is all appreciated. Nobody does this stuff for money. Let them know what you think – good and bad – please.

Scouting Report for Auto Club Speedway by Ryan Rantz of ifantasyrace.com
NASCAR Fantasy Preview for California by Jordan McAbee
Steve gets all nostalgic – Unfortunately This is Your Grandmother’s NASCAR
Fantasy Racing Darkhorse picks for Auto Club Speedway
Experts picks for the Auto Club 400 at Fontana

Race Weekend Schedule

Auto Club 400 from Auto Club Speedway

3:00 PM ET Friday 3/25 First Practice on Speed
7:00 PM ET Friday 3/25 Qualifying – on Speed
2:30 PM ET Saturday 3/26 Practice on Speed
3:50 PM ET Saturday 3/26 Practice on Speed
3 PM ET Sunday 3/27 Auto Club 400 live on Fox

Recent winners at the Auto Club Speedway Speedway

10/10/2010 Tony Stewart
2/21/2010 Jimmie Johnson
10/11/2009 Jimmie Johnson
2/22/2009 Matt Kenseth
8/31/2008 Jimmie Johnson
View more Fontana winners here

Recent Pole Winners at ACS

10/10/2010 Jamie McMurray
2/21/2010 Jamie McMurray
10/11/2009 Denny Hamlin
2/22/2009 Brian Vickers
8/31/2008 Jimmie Johnson

Best Average Finish Loop Data

Auto Club Speedway last 12 races

Jimmie Johnson 4.3
Matt Kenseth 9.2
Carl Edwards 9.5
Clint Bowyer 11.0
Mark Martin 11.4
Kyle Busch 11.8
Notable – Matt Kenseth’s Ave Start is only 19.8. Maybe qualifying isn’t a big deal. Watch practice times.

Best Average Start Loop Data

Jimmie Johnson                     6.6

Kasey Kahne                                10.9

Greg Biffle         11.1

Jeff Gordon       11.7

Kyle Busch      12.3

Noteable:Dale Earnhardt Jr starts 21.5 on average and finishes 24.3

Laps Led Loop Data

Jimmie Johnson 746 (25.2%)
Matt Kenseth 362 (12.3%)
Greg Biffle 269 (9.1%)
Kyle Busch 243 (8.2%)
Jeff Gordon 209 (7.1%)
Noteable: Neither Marcos Ambrose, Brad Keselowski and Joey Logano have yet to lead a lap at ACS.

We have 40 pages of 2011 Auto Club 400 NASCAR Loop Data for you to download here.

Fontana Fast Facts

The 2011 Auto Club 400 will be the 22nd Sprint Cup race at Auto Club Speedway.
13 different drivers have won Cup races at Fontana and 14 have won the pole.
Jimmie Johnson is the only driver to win race after starting on the pole and he did it on 8/31/2008.
Johnson has five wins to lead all drivers in wins. Kurt Busch is the all-time leader with three poles.
Johnson has 11 Top Fives and 12 Top Tens. Matt Kenseth also has 12 Top Tens.
Johnson has led 846 laps.
Kenseth has never had a DNF at ACS in 18 races.
Kyle Busch is the youngest ACS winner. He was 20 years, 4 months and 2 days old when he won the race in 9/4/2005. Rusty Wallace was 44 years, 8 months and 15 days old when he won on 4/29/2001.
Auto Club Speedway is a 2.0 mile high banked oval and the near twin to Michigan International Speedway. We class ACS as a Speedway Type Track in the On pit Row stats. But look at the drivers who do well at MIS specifically too.

Best Average Finish on Speedway Type Tracks

Jimmie Johnson 10.4
Jeff Gordon 11.5
Carl Edwards 12.0
Tony Stewart 12.3
Mark Martin 12.7

Best Average Start on Speedway Type Tracks

Ryan Newman 10.1
Jimmie Johnson 10.4
Jeff Gordon 11.0
Kasey Kahne 11.4
Mark Martin 13.2

See Previous Race Results at Speedway type tracks

Please do me a favor and “Like” our Facebook page. It’s important for us. And if you read the Bench Racing with Steve and Charlie blog please subscribe today.

Enjoy the racing from California this weekend and good luck with your games. And if you didn’t pick J J this week, I have an “I told you so” in the cooler for you next week.

Thank you as always for your time

Charlie Turner

Filed under: Auto Club Speedway, NASCAR video, On Pit Row The Fastest Two Hours on Radio, One and Done NASCAR Fantasy Racing

Tagged with: NASCAR newsletter, On Pit Row on Ustream TV

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Git Yur Live NASCAR Fantasy Racing Draft Rotcheer

by Charlie Turner

February 3, 2011 1:35 pm UTC No Comments

Today at 8 PM ET, six real smart fantasy racing pros – and I – will endeavor to draft a four driver NASCAR Sprint Cup team for the 2011 fantasy racing season.

We hope that you will follow along, comment, snicker, heckle, guffaw, whatever, as we expose our vast intelligence to public scrutiny. It’s a live blog event, hosted by many of the sites involved. Click here to join the live draft. We’ll even send you a wake-up call if you need one.

Here’s the list of the smart fantasy guys who will making picks, and their websites, which are all first rate. Please check them out if you haven’t already. If you have, do it again. And again.

Darren Fauth – FantasyRacingCheatSheet.com
PJ Walsh – FantasyNASCARPreview.com
Jordan McAbee – ifantasyrace.com
Micah Roberts – RobertsNASCARNotes.blogspot.com
Eric McClung – KFFL.com/NASCAR
Dan Beaver – Yahoo! Fantasy NASCAR / NASCAR.com

Filed under: Live blogs, NASCAR, NASCAR Fantasy Gaming, NASCAR Predictions, One and Done NASCAR Fantasy Racing, Sprint Cup Series

Tagged with: Fantasy draft, fantasy experts picks

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Fantasy Pick’Em: 2010 Ford 400

by Chris Leone, Special To NASCAR commentary and driver pictures, 2012 NASCAR schedule, video, Bench Racing With Steve and Charlie

I do weekly Fantasy Pick'Em columns here at OPR, as well as the occasional opinion and analysis piece. I also provide the IZOD IndyCar Series coverage. For more on that, head to my site, OpenWheelAmerica.com. My Twitter handle is @christopherlion.

November 18, 2010 4:26 pm UTC No Comments

This is it, folks. The last race of the 2010 Sprint Cup Series season. The Ford 400 at Homestead-Miami Speedway. The race for all the marbles in the Chase for the Sprint Cup.

Three drivers have a shot at the title. Denny Hamlin holds a 15-point lead over four-time defending champion Jimmie Johnson. Meanwhile, Kevin Harvick, who would have clinched the title under the old points format last week at Phoenix, sits in third, a mere 46 back.

Any of them could win the championship. In effect, it comes down to a win. Hamlin can clinch outright by winning the race. Johnson can do so by winning the race and leading the most laps. Harvick, on the other hand, needs a little more help – and although Johnson and Hamlin can still be beaten with top-10 finishes, the math gets tricky.

It’s the closest Chase title race since its inaugural season in 2004. So let’s forget the normal fantasy stuff this week, and switch it up a bit. We care about three drivers and three drivers only right now. And one of them will be your Sprint Cup champion come Sunday. But who?

Hamlin, of course, controls his own destiny. As we’ve said, if he wins the race, the title is his, no matter what. And Hamlin has won at this track before – last year, in fact, making him the only title contender with a Homestead win. At the beginning of the Chase, he talked about simply making it to the end, because the last few races are when the No. 11 team heats up, and it’s shown in their performance. They’re the best team at the track right now.

But being good and being lucky are two different things, and Hamlin was not lucky last week at Phoenix. Having to pit for fuel very late in the race bounced him back to 12th. While it didn’t slaughter his points lead entirely, it did weaken it severely, and the pressure is on him.

Meanwhile, Johnson must be somewhat refreshed by his new position as the pressuring driver. With Hamlin thrown off by last week’s setback, he and Chad Knaus can try to mess with their key championship rivals on track. After all, they’ve done this before. Four times, to be precise. In a row. What’s a fifth?

Well, none of those previous four were come-from-behind wins. In fact, nobody’s ever come from behind in the Chase to win without holding the points lead with two races to go. It hasn’t been done in Cup since 1992, when Alan Kulwicki did it. And Johnson, with his 12.7 average finish, is actually the worst of the three title contenders at Homestead. While he usually finishes solidly at the track, he’s never capped off any of his title runs there with a win.

So, given all that, I’m going to take the road less traveled and pick Harvick to win the title.

Yup.

If you’ve followed my column all Chase, you’d know that I pick a “lead” driver every week, and I’ve been saving Harvick for this very weekend anyway. With four top-fives in nine starts, he has the best average finish of the title contenders at the track, an 8.4. He’s finished second and third the past two years at Homestead, so he knows what he’s doing.

And I’m going to put my faith in karma – that the driver who dominated the regular season, who should have a 200-plus points lead and his first Cup championship right now, will find a way to get it done – and get a little lucky this weekend.

Game on, gentlemen. It should be a fun show.

Filed under: Homestead-Miami Speedway, One and Done NASCAR Fantasy Racing

Tagged with: Denny Hamlin, Ford 400, Homestead-Miami Speedway, jimmie johnson, Kevin Harvick, One and Done NASCAR Fantasy Racing

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Fantasy Pick’Em: 2010 Kobalt Tools 500

by Chris Leone, Special To NASCAR commentary and driver pictures, 2012 NASCAR schedule, video, Bench Racing With Steve and Charlie

November 11, 2010 12:09 pm UTC No Comments

The penultimate round of this year’s Sprint Cup Series season comes at Phoenix International Raceway. The Kobalt Tools 500 comes after a wild race at Texas that saw one Chaser flip off an official, two mild-mannered Chasers get into a fight, and Jimmie Johnson somehow lose the points lead to a determined Denny Hamlin.

Lucky for Johnson that Phoenix is up next. While Hamlin has a top five finish in half of his career Phoenix starts, Johnson has an eye-popping 4.9 average finish at the track. It’s augmented by 12 top-10s, and four wins (including the win in this race last year), in 14 starts. It’s one of the best records ever for any given driver at any particular track.

The statistics seem to say that Phoenix is a Hendrick Motorsports track, as the top three active drivers are Johnson, Mark Martin, and Jeff Gordon. So, for once in the Chase, I’m going to go on a limb and pick a non-Chase driver as my lead pick, seeing as I’ve already picked Johnson and Gordon in the past eight weeks, and both may be negatively affected by their crew swap this weekend.

That’s right – Martin’s my fantasy pick for the weekend. It’s really not hard to bet against a guy who hasn’t finished outside the top 20 at a track since his debut there, and that’s the case with Martin. In particular, he hasn’t finished worse than fourth at the track with Hendrick, winning in the spring race last year.

Martin has also picked it up in the Chase, finishing no worse than 14th since Dover and scoring a runner-up finish at Martinsville. Last week’s race at Texas yielded a third-place finish. The team has momentum on its side.

My second pick of the weekend is Jeff Burton, another ex-Jack Roush driver whose stock has been pretty high at Phoenix even after leaving the flagship Ford stable. He had a 25th place finish at the track in the spring, but before that, you would have had to go all the way back to 1996 to find a Burton finish outside the top 15.

Of course, Burton’s been in the news recently for a different reason – putting Gordon in the catchfence while under caution last week and then getting fought afterwards. It made for great TV, but it’s not exactly the kind of thing that gives a guy momentum heading into the final two races of the season.

My third and final pick of the week – the dark horse selection – is, after much deliberation, Juan Pablo Montoya. Montoya’s Phoenix debut ended in an auspicious 33rd place run, and he struggled at the track early in his career, contributing to a middling 17.1 average finish in seven starts.

But in his past two runs, Montoya’s made great strides. This time last year, he placed eighth. In the spring of this year, he led 104 laps, including most of the middle of the race, to finish a solid fifth. No, he doesn’t dominate the track like Johnson, but would he really be a dark horse then?

Filed under: One and Done NASCAR Fantasy Racing, Phoenix International Raceway

Tagged with: Denny Hamlin, Jeff Burton, jimmie johnson, Juan Montoya, Kobalt Tools 500, Mark Martin, Phoenix International Raceway

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Fantasy Pick’Em: 2010 AAA Texas 500

by Chris Leone, Special To NASCAR commentary and driver pictures, 2012 NASCAR schedule, video, Bench Racing With Steve and Charlie

November 4, 2010 4:16 pm UTC No Comments

Tony Stewart practicing at Pocono

The Sprint Cup Series comes down to the final three races of the 2010 season with this weekend’s visit to Texas Motor Speedway. The AAA Texas 500 will mark the final race on a cookie-cutter 1.5-mile tri-oval this year, as the final two races take place at Phoenix and Homestead, respectively.

After everybody with a legitimate title shot managed to survive Talladega, the top three in points are now separated by under 40 points. Jimmie Johnson maintains the lead over second-place Denny Hamlin and third-place Kevin Harvick, but the margins are slim enough that anything can happen. Any of the three could come into the final two races of the year with the points lead.

Of course, they’re, by extension, the best three fantasy bets this weekend. But where’s the fun in that? Let’s make some interesting picks. I’m going to cut down from five to three this week, seeing as I just eliminated the three best available choices anyway.

My personal pick for the weekend is Tony Stewart, who somehow I have managed to avoid thus far during the Chase. Perhaps that’s been a good call – he’s had terrible luck in the Chase ever since the final two laps of the Loudon event. He has little momentum to build off of from the past few races as he lingers in the bottom half of Chase points.

But Smoke’s Texas results tell a decidedly different story. Though his peak years at the track came in 2005 and 2006, as he led double-digit laps in every event and won the fall 2006 race, he showed some muscle this spring by leading 74 laps from the pole before a late race crash eliminated any hopes of victory.

If Smoke’s bad luck is a turn-off, though, don’t forget about Mark Martin, whose 12.8 average Texas finish is fourth best of active drivers. That’s especially remarkable considering that in two of the first three Texas events ever held, Martin finished 34th or worse; however, he did win the other one, the 1998 event.

One of four drivers to run in all 19 Texas events held thus far, Martin has 10 other top-10 runs to back up that 1998 victory. Five of them have come in the past seven Texas events. And while Martin has only led three laps at the track since the spring of 2006, he’s shown the ability to keep the car out of trouble and close enough to the front to score plenty of points.

Finally, if you’re looking for a potential surprise pick, consider Martin Truex Jr. and his solid 13.9 average finish at Texas. Only two times in 10 starts has he failed to finish in the top 15, and in one of those events he led laps before his engine gave out. No, it’s not the most orthodox pick, but with only three races left in the season, who expects anything to play out predictably?

Filed under: One and Done NASCAR Fantasy Racing, Texas Motor Speedway

Tagged with: AAA Texas 500, Denny Hamlin, jimmie johnson, Kevin Harvick, Mark Martin, Martin Truex Jr., One and Done NASCAR Fantasy Racing, Texas Motor Speedway, Tony Stewart

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Fantasy Pick’Em: 2010 Amp Energy Juice 500

by Chris Leone, Special To NASCAR commentary and driver pictures, 2012 NASCAR schedule, video, Bench Racing With Steve and Charlie

October 27, 2010 11:32 pm UTC No Comments

Kurt Busch heading out to practice at Indianapolis

Talladega Superspeedway hosts the Amp Energy Juice 500, the seventh race of this year’s Chase for the Sprint Cup. Three drivers – Denny Hamlin, Kevin Harvick, and Kyle Busch – enter the race within a weekend’s points haul of leader Jimmie Johnson, with Hamlin the closest at six markers back.

Talladega is widely understood to be the most unpredictable track in the Chase, with its restrictor-plate-engineered pack racing perpetuating the threat of a 20-car accident at any corner. Any driver can encounter bad luck at Talladega. Most have. The points leader coming out of this weekend will not necessarily be the guy to win the race, it will be the guy who survives the big one – if it happens.

With that in mind, recognize that the following picks are a crapshoot.

As far as the luckiest driver at Talladega goes, it’s Kurt Busch, with only three DNFs in 19 career Talladega starts. His resultant 12.8 average finish is the sport’s best. From the end of 2004 through 2007, he had a seven-race streak at the track of single-digit finishes, though he has never actually won at the track.

Looking at a dark horse, Jamie McMurray is your best bet. This race’s defending winner, he’s doubled his career win total this year alone, as the Earnhardt Ganassi team re-establishes itself as a weekly contender. McMurray’s won half of his career races at Daytona and Talladega, the sport’s two biggest tracks and the only two to require the use of restrictor plates.

Three more for the sake of three more:

Hey, remember that time Dale Earnhardt Jr. won four Talladega races in a row? He’s still a track favorite, even if that streak ended in 2003. He’s led in his past nine Talladega starts and in 19 out of 21 career races run, which has to count for something, even as lead changes seem to become more frequent every time Sprint Cup comes to the speedway.

Tony Stewart’s only Talladega win came at this race in 2008, but it was not without controversy. Most fans believed that, despite passing Stewart below the yellow line on the final lap, Regan Smith deserved the win for passing cleanly and not wrecking his competitor. Regardless, it finally validated a solid Talladega record that includes a half-dozen runner-up finishes.

Finally, let’s look out in left field for our final pick, since it more often than not seems like at least somebody in the top ten at Talladega gets there on sheer luck. Scott Speed was that lucky gentleman in the spring of 2009, placing fifth in his debut at the track. He’s only got three starts at the track, one of which ended in a wreck, but the other result, a 15th place run this spring, wasn’t too bad either. I mean, Talladega’s a crapshoot anyway; you could really do worse than to tape a bunch of driver headshots to a dartboard and pick whomever you hit. (Not that I recommend doing that. Not that I did that for this week’s column, either… I swear.)

Filed under: One and Done NASCAR Fantasy Racing, Talladega Superspeedway

Tagged with: Amp Energy Juice 500, Dale Earnhardt Jr., Jamie McMurray, Kurt Busch, One and Done NASCAR Fantasy Racing, Scott Speed, Talladega Superspeedway, Tony Stewart

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