If fantasy NASCAR success is all about the stats - pick Jimmy Johnson

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by Charlie Turner

Thanks for stopping by OnPitRow.com and the Bench Racing with Steve and Charlie blog. The best NASCAR and IndyCar news and opinion, exclusive pictures and video. I'm Charlie Turner. Follow me on Twitter @onpitrow

February 29, 2008 10:11 am CST 1 Comment

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Untitled PostThe image that you may need to carry with you this week is the one of Carl Edwards #99 Roush-Fenway Ford Fusion relentlessly running down first Jeff Gordon and then race leader Jimmy Johnson for a convincing win at Auto Club Speedway of California.  Or maybe that’s the vision that you want your competitors to lock on. It may convince them that Jimmy Johnson can be beat in Vegas.

The victory by Edwards convinced me that Jack Roush and his Ford Factory team has recovered from being snookered in 2007 , mostly by Hendrick Motorsports, in the testing and development of the, former, Car of Tomorrow. The new Fusion race car was dominant with Edwards at the wheel, but Matt Kenseth, Greg Biffle and Jamie McMurray all looked strong in California. The Fords are back, I’m convinced.

But I’m not convinced that it will make any difference at the next track where Jimmy Johnson has won the last three races and has a NASCAR Loop Data Driver Rating of 133.7. In fact of the sixteen categories that make up the pre-race Loop Box Score, Johnson has category best ratings in ten. Five of the six items that he doesn’t lead are Passing stats - things like Passes Under Green, Quality Passes, Pass Differential. The thing is, he trails in the passing stats because he spent 93.2 % of all of his Laps in the Top Fifteen and has led 24.5% of all laps over the last three years. He didn’t have very many cars to pass, did he?

Couple the #48’s past Las Vegas success with the fact that Jimmy led more laps than anyone at California (76) and finished a strong second place means picking anyone but Johnson this week is probably a mistake.

Making your pick from the best of the rest

By comparison, Carl Edwards has a Loop Driver Rating of 78.3 and leads only the Green Passes category with 220. The Vegas track has been good for other Roush Ford drivers and Carl is the highest rated driver at Homestead-Miami Speedway, the track most similar to Las Vegas Motor Speedway. But if you pick Carl, you’re basing it on last Monday at Cali. That’s not much to go by.

Jeff Gordon has the second best Driver Rating at 114.1. Gordon led 68 laps and finished third at California. For much of the race it was a two car affair between the #24 and the #48. Gordon has won at Las Vegas, but only once and he’s never won at the similar Homestead. He could win this week because Jeff Gordon can win any week.

Hometown hot-shoe Kyle Busch has a DR of 108.7. He’s been as hot as you can be without winning a Cup race. He leads the Sprint Cup points - and Craftsman Truck Series points as well - and seems to be able to drive this new car anywhere he wants to on the track. Don’t look to Homestead for support though if you are leaning to the Shrub. His average finish down there is 33 rd.

Matt Kenseth, Tony Stewart and Greg Biffle have DR’s of 104.5, 100.9 and 95.5 but only Kenseth has ever won at Vegas - at least on the track. Matt has two wins and has led a Loop second best 147 laps - 18.3% the last three races here. He finished a solid fifth at California after a strong run in the  Daytona 500. Matt may be the better Ford choice than Carl Edwards for this week.

If I have to pick someone besides Jimmy Johnson to win this race, my choice would be between Jeff Burton and Mark Martin. Burton has been solid so far in 2008 sitting tenth in points. Jeff is another two time winner at Vegas and has a DR of 93.6. He has run 80.1 % of his laps in the top 15. Hanging around, giving himself a shot at the win in the end has worked well for Jeff in the Nationwide Series.

Martin is a past winner at Vegas. His Driver Rating is sixth best at 97.0. Nothing really jumps out and says,”pick me, I’m gonna win” but Martin has been very good at mile and a half tracks over the years.

When all is said and read though, how can you not take Jimmy Johnson this week? For a longshot pick any of these three Toyotas could be very good. Between Dave Blaney, Brian Vickers and David Reutimann, I like Blaney to finish this one in one piece and in the top ten.

Photo credit - Icon Sports Media, Inc.

Las Vegas is NASCAR’s mid-point in the Drive to Survive

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by Charlie Turner

Thanks for stopping by OnPitRow.com and the Bench Racing with Steve and Charlie blog. The best NASCAR and IndyCar news and opinion, exclusive pictures and video. I'm Charlie Turner. Follow me on Twitter @onpitrow

February 28, 2008 4:52 pm CST 2 Comments

Untitled PostWhether you love or hate NASCAR’s Sprint Cup Series point structure you have to admit that it does create a playoff atmosphere.  With the first twenty six races comprising the Race to the Chase, which leads to the Chase for the Cup Championship final ten, NASCAR has created interest at the two thirds point of the season that wasn’t there in the old days.

Now we have an early season version of the same kind of thing and you can thank the much loved, top thirty five qualifyier rule.  I call it the Drive to Survive and the race is heating up.

Counting this weeks UAW Dodge Dealers 400 at Las Vegas Motor Speedway there are three races left before the top thirty five starting spots for each race will be set by this year’s  owner’s points.  For the first five races starters are locked in based on 2007 year end owner’s points. 

NASCAR’s top series is no place for a slow start.  If you want to make all the races, you’d better be on your game. A little luck doesn’t hurt either.  Here are the 30th through 40th place teams based on points so far this year.

  • 30th - 158 pts  David Ragan
  • 31st -  157 pts  Denny Hamlin
  • 32nd - 156 pts  Robby Gordon
  • 33rd -  152 pts  Sam Hornish Jr
  • 34th -   140 pts  Jeremy Mayfield
  • 35th -   136 pts  Dario Franchitti
  • 36th -   128 pts  Travis Kvapil
  • 37th -   127 pts  Dave Blaney
  • 38th -   122 pts  Regan Smith
  • 39th -   113 pts  Bill Elliott
  • 40th -   110 pts  Kyle Petty

There are some big names in that very vulnerable group.  I’m betting that Denny Hamlin and Joe Gibbs Racing weren’t worried about making the top thirty five when they won the second Gatorade Dual 150 race at Daytona two weeks ago.

Hornish has to be feeling heat over the possibility of wasting Roger Penske’s points from Kurt Busch’s Blue Deuce, doesn’t he?  Dave Blaney has run up front all day in both races, only to wreck out.  Dario Franchitti is probably about where you would expect while Mayfield, Kvapil and Smith are about where I would have looked for them too.  Robby Gordon got screwed.

There are three races to go and the Drive to Survive will keep fans of the also-rans on edge for a bit yet. 

Photo Credit: Icon Sports Media, Inc.

Jacques Villeneuve sighting

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by Charlie Turner

Thanks for stopping by OnPitRow.com and the Bench Racing with Steve and Charlie blog. The best NASCAR and IndyCar news and opinion, exclusive pictures and video. I'm Charlie Turner. Follow me on Twitter @onpitrow

February 27, 2008 11:20 pm CST 12 Comments

Untitled PostHey Villeneuve fans. Maybe Jacques had a reason for crashing out of the second Gatorade Dual 150 back on February 14. Here’s a pic of that ol’ stock car driver, Jacques and the Peugeot Lemans Prototype Team in Paris on the 15th.

Rumors that this was actually a photo of the new Nationwide Series CoT test mule have proven unverifiable.

Photo credit - Icon Sports Media, Inc.

Don’t Weep on Me California

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by Steve Wronkowicz

I am co-host of the syndicated radio show: ON PIT ROW. Charlie likes to call me an "idiot". I'm not an "idiot"; I just prefer not to let the facts get in the way of my opinions.

February 27, 2008 8:52 pm CST 9 Comments

Okay so my apologies to Olivia Newton John for taking liberties with her song, Don’t Cry for Me Argentina.

Untitled Post But, it is a good lead in to this weeks BUZZ ON PIT ROW. The BUZZ was all about what NASCAR should do with California Motor Speedway–now known as The Auto Club Speedway of Southern California–or some such hooey. It is a safe bet that NASCAR will not totally abandon the race track now that they have gotten their sixty million dollars in naming rights.

What is clear is that something needs to be done with the race track to make it more racey, more fan exciting and less prone to the weeping problems that plagued it over the weekend. Nothing could be more frustrating for NASCAR, the fans and the TV networks than to be constantly drying the track and never being able to get it in to a point of being safe to run on.

These same problems occurred at Texas Motor Speedway which resulted in Bruton Smith totally demolishing the racing surface and rebuilding it. Similar drastic moves need to be made to Cali. What they have isn’t working on many levels.

As a caller on last nights ON PIT ROW show passed along, one thought was to increase banking to 33 degrees and run restrictor plates. I would be okay with that. It would help spread the R&D dollars used for restrictor plates over six races instead of four.

How about an Iowa like facility? Something shorter, racier and with seating to the sky. Maybe that would excite the locals and give them a reason to support their local races instead of taking the drive to Vegas.

On second thought maybe all Cali needs is a nice Indian gaming facility in the infield. Hmm; I see marketing possibilities.

Photo Credit - Icon Sports Media, Inc.

Jack Roush ain’t afraid of the rice burners

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by Charlie Turner

Thanks for stopping by OnPitRow.com and the Bench Racing with Steve and Charlie blog. The best NASCAR and IndyCar news and opinion, exclusive pictures and video. I'm Charlie Turner. Follow me on Twitter @onpitrow

February 27, 2008 12:23 pm CST 4 Comments

Untitled PostA big deal was made during the Daytona 500 weekend about the comparative horsepower results from NASCAR’s post Dual 150 dyno tests of Sprint Cup Series cars.

Most of the noise was - depending on which side you listened to -  either crowing or complaining about how the Joe Gibbs Racing Toyotas had up to a 30 hp advantage over the Chevy teams.  I never did see any definitive numbers for Dodge or Ford, but the quotes that I did see didn’t deny Toyota’s overall power advantage.

That impressive win at the Auto Club 500 by Roush-Fenway’s Carl Edwards seemed to be argument enough that Jack Roush’s Fusions are plenty strong though.

Mike Mulhern has a great articleon Jack Roush’s response to questions about Ford’s competitiveness with Toyota.  This time, instead of declaring war on the Camry’s, The Cat in the Hat gives a history lesson. 

In the lesson Jack explains that the basic engine that the Ford teams use is a design from 1993, that was at the time the “spec” engine for all NASCAR competitors.  Since 1993, all of the current competitors of Ford have had new - and updated - engines approved by NASCAR.  The Chevy teams have actually had three upgrades, each successive design incorporating the changes of all previous designs.

Still Ford has managed to win races and championships by, according to Roush, getting the most out of the now 15 year old design.  Sometime this year, Ford will submit its own new design to NASCAR.  Monday’s race result makes it look like the Blue Oval guys will be able to hold their own until then just fine.

Photo Credit: Todd Warshaw/Getty Images for NASCAR

Carl Edwards and Roush flip off the critics

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by Charlie Turner

Thanks for stopping by OnPitRow.com and the Bench Racing with Steve and Charlie blog. The best NASCAR and IndyCar news and opinion, exclusive pictures and video. I'm Charlie Turner. Follow me on Twitter @onpitrow

February 25, 2008 11:33 pm CST 1 Comment

Untitled PostThose two Hendrick Motorsports cars flying formation up front for most of the race could have been disheartening for the Hendricks Haters had the glimmer of a real Race for the Chase not shown itself. Jimmy Johnson and Jeff Gordon held the top two spots all night long and well into todays resumption of actual on-track action. NASCAR finally managed to complete the Auto Club 500 and Jack Roush’s Ford Fusions, led by Cousin Carl Edwards showed that this here Sprint Cup Series will include serious participation by the bearers of the Blue Oval standard.

Various Toyotas and Dodges ducked in and out of the top ten and when it was all over, every manufacturer was represented. Kyle Busch leads both the Cup and Truck Series and is breathing down the substantial neck of teammate Tony Stewart in the Nationwide Series.

Smoke will be going for three straight Nationwide wins at Las Vegas Motor Speedway after winning the postponed California event and Kyle will be trying to leave his Vegas hometown at the top of all three of NASCAR’s major leagues.

Ryan Newman followed his Daytona 500 win with a solid top ten and Kasey Kahne ran another encouraging race for Gillette-Evernham Motorsports. Yessir, looks like 2008 may be a barn-burner.

Photo Credit: Stephen Dunn-Getty Images for NASCAR

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